Between Silver and Gold

"Requiring the United States to beat favored Canada two times in eight days was a monumental task; under Olympic formats used until the 1990s, when there wasn't a true gold-medal game, the earlier victory and the Americans' unbeaten record would have been enough for gold.

So there you have it,  over the rules in place since the inception of ice hockey in the winter Olympics, in the true spirit of international sports competition without the crass commercial big dollar interference of ego-capitalism, the US Hockey team did indeed deserve and did win the Gold Medal in one of the most stunning upsets in 30 years.  Only instead, we will throw a bone to the under-achiever goons of Oh Canada, who barely beat three of the seven teams it faced, including the Swiss and Slovakia, who were outscored by one goal in the two games played against the Americans  and who should have waltzed to a Gold Medal without the drama or flick of anyone's wrist. 

Sigh, what else is there to write about on a Sunday night?  Bitter?  No I am not bitter at all. The Americans winning Silver and taking the big, bad burly Canadians to overtime, where they took a skater off of each team, letting them play four on four, just to get the damn thing over with, well, kudos to those boys, the most inexperienced team in the tournament with only three players having played in any prior Olympics.

If ever there was victory in coming in second, honor in losing, a reason to celebrate the short end of a 3-2 score, this was it.  Say what you will about how wonderful it is for Canada to bring home the Gold, it was America bringing home the Silver that is the story of this day, of this Olympics, of International Hockey at its best.

That's what there is write about on a Sunday night.

Now on to Big Love.

A

The Five Love Languages by Gary Chapman - Article

I was supposed to review this book by today but my copy arrived late and I haven't had time to finish reading it yet. So here's an article that was sent to me by the PR Company. Enjoy!

“Sooo… Want to go on a double date with my parents?” That’s how my journey with The Five Love Languages began. Seriously. But let me explain. I was a college senior, and quite enamored with a certain boy. I picked up the phone, pulse racing, palms sweating, and somehow mustered up the courage to ask him if he’d come with my parents and I to see a show downtown Chicago.

I was feeling bold. Of course, I was taking a risk… What guy would say yes to a night out with his not-yet-girlfriend and her mother and father? We’re talking about a one hour drive each way, then sitting next to each other for a two hour show. So, curled up in my computer chair, cell phone to my ear, I asked and held my breath in anticipation of Justin’s answer.

He said yes.

You’re probably wondering what this has to do with The Five Love Languages (Dr. Gary Chapman, Northfield Publishing). On the car ride home from our night out, Justin mentioned, “Hey, have you heard of The Five Love Languages?” He proceeded to explain the concept--how everyone has a love language, and speaking the right one to a person is the key to making them feel loved. Interesting. I made a mental note to drop by a bookstore ASAP and buy myself a copy. As far as I was concerned (my parents as well), he was earning brownie points. But I had to get to the bottom of it myself.

I began reading. Of course, I didn’t want to seem too eager, so I didn’t mention it to Justin (I wasn’t interested in scaring him off). But as I read, it made so much sense. I could see it applying to dating relationships, marriages, relationships with siblings, and even friends. Here’s a rundown of the five love languages:

Words of affirmation--Actions don’t always speak louder than words. If this is your love language, unsolicited compliments mean the world to you. Hearing the reasons why someone loves you sends your spirits skyward.

Quality Time--In the language of quality time, nothing says “I love you” like full, undivided attention. Really being there, with the TV off and all chores on standby, makes your significant other feel truly special and loved.

Receiving Gifts--Don’t mistake this love language for materialism; the receiver of gifts thrives on the love, thoughtfulness, and effort behind the gift.

Acts of Service--Can vacuuming floors really be an expression of love? Absolutely! Anything you do to ease the burden of responsibilities weighing on an acts of service person speaks volumes.

Physical Touch-- Hugs, pats on the back, holding hands, and thoughtful touches on the arm, shoulder, or face can all be ways to show excitement, care and love to a person whose primary love language is physical touch.

Which of these love languages looks like yours? How about your spouse? You may find you’ve been killing yourself washing dishes, cooking elaborate meals, and doing laundry, when all he really wants is for you stop and tell him the specific reasons why you love him so much.

The Five Love Languages first released in 1992. It has sold more than five million copies and rocketed to the top spot of the New York Times bestseller list. Ask your friends, visit the website (www.fivelovelanguages.com), or check Dr. Chapman’s facebook page, and you’ll hear testimonies from people all over the world who’ve experienced positive change in their relationships.

If more people read this book, there would be more marriages saved! --Lynette S.

The Five Love Languages is a must-read and a permanent fixture in my home library! -Dawn H.

The book is a tremendous asset for couples; I just wish I had read it earlier. It could have saved my marriage. -Rodney E.

As for me? I’d say things worked out. Justin and I recently celebrated our one year wedding. And while I can’t say we apply the love languages perfectly (or even well), we do try! Understanding the concept has given us common ground to lay the foundation of our marriage. I’m acts of service; he’s words of affirmation. And to think, it all started on a double date with my parents.

PS. Do you know what your love language(s) are? If not, you can take a short assessment to find out on his brand new website.

Check back this week for my review of The Five Love Languages by Gary Chapman

COX-2 inhibitor can prevent "religious headache" during fast

Every year, millions of observant Jews fast on their holiest day, Yom Kippur, and millions of Muslims fast for the month of Ramadan. And every year, as many as 40% of those who fast develop serious headaches.

Yom Kippur headache is a well documented phenomenon but the causes are unclear, but doctors have suspected withdrawal from caffeine, nicotine, oversleeping, and dehydration.

About 36% of subjects who took COX-2 inhibitor etoricoxib (related to Vioxx) developed headaches, compared to about 68% who took placebo. Those who took etoricoxib also had less severe headaches, and they had an easier time fasting.

References:
Could Vioxx cousin prevent religious fast headache? WebMD.

Image source: Etoricoxib, Wikipedia, public domain.

(I Want To) Come Home

Update on Freedom to Read Week

 

My plan was to read two challenged books and review them this week but I am still working on reading them. So I should be able to finish them by Sunday and will review them early next week.

My books have a theme: Lesbianism.

Both books I"m reading were challenged because of reference to or alluding to Lesbianism.

In the eye of the acoustic storm

Another Morning, Days of Future Passed

Next week marks the one year anniversary of the end of a bear market and the beginning a following bull market.  Some would say it's been a Wave 1 and Wave 2, with a devastating Wave 3 ahead.  Others discount such notions, merely going with the flow, in whichever direction the current is moving at any one time.

Old Man, Harvest

As for your humble author, my sentiments are notwithstanding.  I am firmly in both camps and on this Saturday morning in February, listening nostalgically to The Acoustic Storm on a local FM station, it occurred to me on the way home with bagels from Einstein's that today's blog would best serve as an explanation of my actions, or inaction's and strategy from this past week, as though it might be instructive in some 12th Dimensional way.

Hey Jude, Anthology III

This past week was my slowest trading week in a year, maybe longer.  I saw nothing to be made on the long side and when the early week's decline carried no follow-through, it was apparent that there wasn't much money to be made on the downside either.  So most of the week I worked on my taxes and tried to give my subscribers their dollars' worth with some advanced strategies, a Trade of the Week (worked modestly) and an emphasis on patience, i.e. Our Time Will Come. 


Horse With No Name, America

Yet the puzzle does seem to be coming together, with eighteen months hard down which was followed by twelve months of a sometimes robust rally that retraced about half of the prior bear market's decline.

Here is a similar chart from Elliott Wave International with their analysis:

For letting me post this chart (actually, they don't allow it, don't even know I'm posting it, or if they do know, they are tolerating it only  because they like me, or maybe they don't like me, or maybe they don't even know me, or if they do know me, maybe they respect me because I generate a lot of interest in their work, or maybe they don't respect me at all, maybe they know about that incident in Chilmark in 1978 and just won't let go......)

Lest I get distracted, here is a link to one of their better new articles, well worth your time to access and read:

Deflation is more then just falling prices. Robert Prechter explains why.  February 26, 2010

Mona Lisas and Mad Hatters, Honky Chateau

To oversimplify, which is always a good idea in trading, perhaps the very best idea in trading, I look at those DJIA charts and realize that the next trend of any consequence will be down.  The problem this year and in particular this month has been determining whether the year long rally has ended and that next wave down has begun.  Looking at the top chart, you can see that the DJIA Weekly Trend Model has issued a Sell Signal, circa the week of January 18, 2010 (Signal confirmed on close of trading, Friday, January 22nd). 

Now let's under-simplify:

We find strong lunar cycle effects in stock returns. Specifically, returns in the 15 days around new moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive; we find it for all major U.S. stock indexes over the last 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years. Taken as a whole, this evidence is consistent with popular beliefs that lunar cycles affect human behavior."

          ---DICHEV, Ilia D. and Troy D. JANES, 2003. Lunar Cycle Effects in Stock Returns, The Journal of Private Equity, Fall 2003.

In case you're wondering where I am going with this, the next Full Moon is this weekend.  Already, the news is in creepy and in deadly alignment with this lunar cycle:

TALCA, Chile – A devastating earthquake struck Chile early Saturday, toppling homes, collapsing bridges and plunging trucks into the fractured earth. A tsunami set off by the magnitude-8.8 quake threatened every nation around the Pacific Ocean — roughly a quarter of the globe.

I'll leave it to "T" and others to comment on this and the effects, if any, we can expect in global financial markets next week.  Like a warm security blanket, I am trusting the Trend Models to navigate through whatever is being thrown down upon us at this time.


Come Monday, Live at Fenway Park

After finishing and publishing this blog entry, I will move on to a new Weekend Update for the private email list of subscribers. I have a lot more information, strategies and ideas saved for that publication later today, so I hope you who are subscribers don't mind if I share the following SPX thresholds here, kind of as a reward for everyone having read this far in this strange and rambling essay:

SPX = 1104.49

Hourly:   LONG--->SHORT   @ 1099.96

240min:   LONG--->SHORT   @ 1093.23

Daily:      LONG--->SHORT   @ 1086.88

Weekly:  SHORT--->LONG    @ 1120.78

Back in simplification mode, the SPX Trend Model is LONG in the Hourly, 240 minute and Daily time frames, but still SHORT in the Weekly time frame, the period I consider to be and so define as the Dominant Trend.

I Won't Back Down, Live Tom Petty Anthology

SPX Daily Trend Model

This chart above is why this past week was so slow on the trading front.  With the Dominant Trend pointing lower, but with the shorter-term trends pointing higher, there are few high probability strategies available, save for a few individual stocks and sectors.  Sometimes the best thing to do is to sit on your hands and do nothing because all trading involves risk and unless there is a compelling reason to trade, i.e. assume risk, what the hell do you think you are doing?

As I wrote earlier, I'll go into some stock-specific ideas that do rise to the level of high-probability trading in the Trend Models Weekend Update going out later today.   There is also the issue of trend exhaustion and some tells that the next big cycle wave down has already begun, all things to consider for next week.  Whether it takes a few more hours, or days, or even weeks to ignite something irresistibly engaging for our trading accounts, it just won't matter a year from now.  All that will matter is how much further ahead we are in our quest to get rich, filthy, greedy rich.  

That is why we are here, isn't it?

Rainy Day Women #12 and #35, Blonde on Blonde 

A

Changes in the childhood immunization schedule for 2010

From WebMD:

- Gardasil human papillomavirus vaccine is now suggested for boys. Previously recommended only for girls.

- There are 2 new recommendations for boosting the bacterial meningitis vaccine: children at high risk should get the shot as early as age 2 and as late as age 6. Children not at high risk should get the first shot at age 11 or 12 (or ages 13 to 18 if not previously vaccinated).

- Preference for combination vaccines over separate injections of vaccine components.



CDC, Get The Picture: Child Immunizations.

References:
New Schedule for Childhood Vaccines. WebMD.

Trade System Tutorial

Last weekend I started a new feature in the subscription email service, "Trade of the Week."  This is where I find a highly probable trade for the coming week, either from the trend model list or more likely, from the entire universe of stocks, etf's and indexes.  Below is a copy & paste of what I sent out last Saturday.

II. Trade of the Week

On Friday morning I posted the Daily chart of DELL, pointing out how effective the Trend Model was catching tradable moves up and down with this stock. [http://allallan.blogspot.com/2010/02/dell.htmlhttp://allallan.blogspot.com/2010/02/dell.html]  On Thursday night Dell announced earnings, which means nothing to our algorithm.  The mindless volatility surrounding this fundamental news caused Dell to drop far enough on Friday to trigger a fresh SELL SIGNAL on its Daily Model (chart attached). The Weekly Model has been SHORT since January 25th, so now with the Dell Daily in sync with the Dell Weekly, this represents a high probability SHORT for the week ahead. (The new Daily Reversal-Long for Dell is at 14.22.)

On Monday morning, DELL opened at 13.48.  Assuming that was the entry price on the trade, with Dell currently (Friday morning) at 13.16, the trade is +2.37%.  Sounds meager at first blush, but that equates to 10.1% per month and 0ver 120% annually.  

Dell Daily Trend Model - Feb 26th mid-morning

You can see from the above chart, DELL has drifted lower all week, but no great price collapse or crash.  Exactly!  These Trend Models are designed to be on the right side of the price trend and on whatever path and velocity that takes.  Do enough of these and you will get your share of those wonderful price collapses, as well as price explosions (see BIDU below).

BIDU +18% since February 3rd Buy Signal

So what's Allan's point?

I am getting a lot of questions from subscribers about providing a tutorial for how to trade these trend models.  My best answer is also crassly self-serving, so I have tried to dance around it with some simple basic rules, hoping that would be sufficient to get everyone on board with what we are doing here. 

All you need to be successful with this system are the Weekend Updates.  It also helps to glance at the Evening Updates, after the market closes.  The intra-day stuff is for glued to the screen traders like myself, but do not let these short-term plays intimidate, nor confuse, nor dissuade you from using this service to completely turn your trading and results around in a very positive way.  

Here are some guidelines, done in true minimalist mode:

  I.   Read and study these Weekend Updates each weekend, 20 minutes should do it, no less then 10 minutes, no more then about an hour, its not that complicated!

 II.  Take each Trade of the Week.

III.  Read the Evening Updates, pay attention to any Pending or Reversals noted, we're talking five minutes here, if that.

IV.  Pick three to five stocks or etf's using Weekly, Daily (or soon to come, 240 minute time frames) and enter on their very next Trend Reversals.

 V.  Monitor and manage your picks in accordance with their respective Trends.

That's it and it will work, although don't expect perfection.  And yes, I know Dell has recovered about 10c since I first wrote its results above, but I am not about to re-write and re-compute everything now, which would change again by the time I get the new numbers posted.  

Anyway, I have some hourly models to monitor.

A

AIG

AIG is in the news this morning, the nature of which is inconsequential for our trading.  Here is a Daily chart of AIG with its Trend Model:

  AIG Daily Trend Model

Today's price action will likely generate a fresh Sell on the chart. The question presented is whether it will be too late to Short AIG today, i.e. is this signal the beginning of a tradable decline?  

The whole reason to use an objective, rule-based trading system is not to ask such questions.  Any one signal can be the exception to the rule, but over the longer term and across a diverse set of tradables, the trend will always win out.  This is part of the discipline of trend following, identifying a trend and then following it.  All other issues are moot*.  

*Of little or no practical value or meaning; purely academic; Simon Cowell

Google Buzz "antisocial networking" exposed details of “estranged spouses, current lovers, attorneys and doctors”

From Google: Antisocial networking. FT.com:

At the root of the problem is Google’s decision to use Gmail, with its 175m active users, as a launchpad for its latest push into social networking. All users were enrolled as soon as they clicked a link to look at the service, and many found the names of those they corresponded with most frequently by e-mail – usually a private list – became the basis for a public “social network” of contacts on Buzz. That risked exposing the details of “estranged spouses, current lovers, attorneys and doctors”.

Doctors should be very cautious when using social media to communicate with patients. In general, "friending" patients on Facebook, Buzz and Twitter is not a good idea at the current level of social network services, and is best avoided.

It may be irresponsible to answer patient questions on blogs, Twitter, Buzz and Facebook because no complete data for an informed evaluation and decision can be collected.

Chronic sleep loss decreases performance - One night of good sleep is not enough to recover from chronic sleep deficit

On average, a person needs about eight hours a night to preserve performance.

Acute sleep loss is being awake for more than 24 hours in a row and chronic sleep loss is getting only about four to seven hours of sleep per night.

While most people caught up on acute sleep loss with a single night of 10 hours sleep, those with chronic sleep loss showed deteriorating performance for each hour spent awake.

People are largely unaware that they are chronically sleep-deprived but they are more vulnerable to sudden sleepiness, inattentiveness, and potentially, accidents and errors.

Three days is not enough to recover from chronic sleep loss, but they still do not know how many days or weeks may be needed.

References:
Chronic sleep loss hampers performance. Reuters, 2010.

Image source: Sleeping kitten. Wikipedia, Tilman Piesk, public domain.

DJIA 240

Just how bad does this look?

 Trend Signal

Resistance

Vortex

Eric Topol: The wireless future of medicine (TED Talks)

Eric Topol says we'll soon use our smartphones to monitor our vital signs and chronic conditions. At TEDMED, he highlights several of the most important wireless devices in medicine's future -- all helping to keep more of us out of hospital beds.

NNVC 240 minute chart

NNVC 240 minute

I really like these 240 minute charts as they are acting like sturdy and reliable bridges to Daily Trend Model reversals.  An ancillary bonus is another Elliott Wave count giving perspective between intra-day and Daily counts. 

In the case of NNVC, the 240 minute is suggesting a target range of 1.55-1.75, which supports the Daily target of 1.60-1.80. 

A

Vehicle Exhaust = Second-hand Smoke?

From the NYTimes:

Exhaust from cars and trucks exacerbates asthma in children and may cause new respiratory illnesses and heart problems in adults, even resulting in deaths.

The meta-analysis included 700 peer-reviewed studies on varying aspects of motor vehicle emissions and health. It found “evidence of a causal relationship,” but not proof of one, between pollution from vehicles and impaired lung function and accelerated hardening of the arteries.

The study found that the biggest effects occurred among people who lived within 300 to 500 meters — about two-tenths to three-tenths of a mile — from highways and major roads. That applies to 30-40% of the population of North America.

“Like the issue of second-hand smoke, it’s very difficult to understand the exact mechanisms that make it bad — but it’s easy to understand that it is in fact bad.”

References:
Report Links Vehicle Exhaust to Health Problems. NYT, 2010.

Worldwide, 40% of children, 33% of male non-smokers, 35% of female non-smokers are exposed to second-hand smoke http://goo.gl/xFGef

Heavy traffic, Wikipedia, GNU Free Documentation License.

The NDD Book by William Sears, MD

Subtitle: How Nutrition Deficit Disorder Affects Your Child's Learning, Behaviour, and Health, and What You Can Do About It - Without Drugs

Stars: *****

Summary: In The NDD Book, Dr. Sears presents the latest scientific research on the effects of nutrition on the brain, outlines the symptoms of NDD, and lays out a drug-free prescription for prevention and treatment. Filled with inspiring success stories of children from Dr. Sears's own practice who showed major improvements in learning, mood, and behaviour with diet changes alone, the NDD Book also provides nine days of sample meal plans and kid-friendly NDD-prevention recipes for meals, snacks and desserts.

First of all I'd like to clarify that NDD isn't a condition you can get an actual diagnosis for (except by Dr. Sears) and you won't find information on it in medical journals.

"Children are getting sicker, sadder, and fatter. Why? The problem is food, glorious food! During my thirty-six years as a pediatrician, I have never seen such an epidemic of nutrition related illnesses. In this book you will learn a new name that I have given to this epidemic: NDD, which stands for Nutrition Deficit Disorder." - from the introduction by Dr. Bill

This is not to say that he doesn't know what he's talking about. Everything he said makes perfect sense. He explains how poor nutrition can lead to the D's.

"The D Epidemic
Parents, we have an epidemic of Ds: attention deficit disorder (ADD), obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), Bipolar disorder (BPD), oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), depression and the biggest D of the decade, diabetes." - pg 7

First I'd like to point out that he doesn't say that poor nutrition is necessarily the cause for every person who has these diseases but it can cause it in some and make it worse in others. I do think he could clarify that a bit more though.

Second, I'm not sure why he put BPD as the short form for Bipolar Disorder as BPD is the short form for Borderline Personality Disorder and bipolar is usually short-formed to BP. This could be a little confusing.

I really enjoyed the book and will be putting some of what it says into practice. Food is put into Green, Yellow and Red light foods to help children and parents remember what's healthy. Also he uses the term Grow-Foods instead of Healthy Foods because the word healthy puts off children and adults who might otherwise eat said food. Dr. Sears also shares tips for helping your family transition to a better diet, ways to sneak in some vegetables while he develops a liking for them and games to do with your children to help them learn the difference between grow-foods and red-light foods and how they affect his body.

There is also a much needed chapter on breakfasts. Everyone has heard that you need a good breakfast to function but Dr. Sears actually explains how those foods work in your body to help your brain function.

I highly recommend this book to all parents and it could even benefit adults who don't have children, especially young adults because they are often not much better when it comes to eating nutritiously.

* I received a copy of this book for review from Hachette Book Group. Reviews are in no way affected by how I came across the book.

Links of Interest: Article on NDD by Dr. Sears, Ask Dr. Sears,


Other Reviews: NONE YET


Buy The NDD Book from amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews

Physicians and social media - ACP Hospitalist features Dr. Rob

From ACP Hospitalist:

"Dr. Lamberts’ words aren’t just vanishing into cyberspace. His blog, Musings of a Distractible Mind, gets about 20,000 visitors who view 50,000 pages a month, according to his own analytics data. By the end of 2009, his list of Twitter followers numbered nearly 1,500 and counting.

Today’s physicians have an ever-expanding number of social media vehicles through which to express themselves. Tools like Twitter, Facebook and blogging can potentially help physicians better educate and interact with patients, perhaps even humanizing themselves in the process. But mishandling that powerful online megaphone can potentially risk, or at the very least blur, the doctor-patient relationship, according to social media-savvy physicians.

Initially, when he was virtually unread, Dr. Lamberts said he blogged about a few interesting cases, always cloaking the patient details. But he soon halted that practice."

I follow a similar approach described in detail in the website disclaimer:

"There is no real life patient data on this website. Please note: we do not write or “blog” about patients. All case descriptions are fictional, similar to the descriptions you can find in a multiple choice questions textbook for board exam preparation. Cases course and description do not follow real cases."

http://clinicalcases.org/2002/01/disclaimer-and-terms-of-use-agreement.html

Image source: OpenClipArt.org, public domain.

Related:

DJIA 240 minute chart

 DJIA 240 minute trend model

This the 240 minute chart of the DJIA.  The horizontal blue line is an auto-resistance line generated by Advanced GET.  It works well for both Short-Intermediate-Major resistance levels and it already has worked to some extent this time.

Why keep blogging on health topics?

Dr. Mike Cadogan, an ER physician and an award-winning medical blogger, in essence asked on Google Buzz: "Why keep blogging on health topics?" See his post and the comments below:

Dr. Mike Cadogan

Some days I worry about being so connected on the web. Some days I feel I should just treat the patient physically in front of me and concentrate the years of contextual learning on the individual consulting me for treatment.

Then I stumble across a pixellated torrent of self-diagnosing, non-contextual, copy-paste tripe (on some website)...

Question: "i am feeling so much…itching in my breast….that i have scratched it and it has converted into a wound….i hav used antiseptic cream also it cured my wound but again i feel itching…plz tell me some solution to get rid of it plz…..and i am so… confused…..plz help me…."


Informed Answer: "If you had breast cancer, you would see and feel a lump (cancerous tumor). You probably just got bit by a bug or something."

...and I feel justified for attempting to join with colleagues in providing open source medical information visually enhanced for contextual learning and iteration...

Ves Dimov, M.D.

Don't make web publishing feel like a job. Slow down. Relax. Enjoy. The work on the web as a physician is extremely important because it provides credible information.

Chris Nickson

I agree - the enormous accessibility of web resources almost makes it a moral imperative to put quality information out there - because, like it or not, people are turning to the web for their information needs.

Nearly everyone in the U.S. carries BPA - the chemical may increase risk of heart disease

From WebMD:

More than 90% of Americans carry the plastics chemical BPA in their bodies. But those with the highest BPA levels have the highest risk of heart disease.

BPA -- bisphenol A -- is one of the world's most heavily produced chemicals used to make PVC pipes, epoxy resins that line food cans, food packaging, and drink containers.

There's no way to avoid BPA entirely: It's in food, water, and air.

Some ways to reduce exposure to BPA:

- Don’t microwave polycarbonate plastic food containers. Polycarbonate containers that contain BPA usually have a No. 7 on the bottom.

- Reduce your use of canned foods.

- When possible, opt for glass, porcelain, or stainless steel containers, particularly for hot food or liquids.

Identification in plastics (Wikipedia)

There are seven classes of plastics used in packaging applications. Type 7 is the catch-all "other" class, and some type 7 plastics are made from bisphenol A monomer. Type 3 (PVC) can also contain bisphenol A as an antioxidant in plasticizers.

Types 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 do not use bisphenol A during polymerization or package forming.

References:
BPA May Be Linked to Heart Disease Risk. WebMD.

Exposures to dioxins and PCBs are associated with reduced growth during the peripubertal period http://goo.gl/w0WBO

Image source: Bisphenol A. Wikipedia, public domain.

Related:

From an aching heart

I wish you would write back to me.  So much time has gone by, so many of our memories now faded, blurred by the years that passed.  We were stick figures along a southeastern shore  and then travelers across the great plains, Mt Rushmore, Yellowstone and the long open expanses of Montana.  We laughed, held and loved each other as the old was left behind and the new discovered.

Then we passed through the upheaval....but in the end, didn't survive.

Three years have passed and we both had moved on. Others took our places, the ones we had promised, bonded and sealed forever for you and me.  And when I thought those feelings were gone, that maybe they weren't ever real at all,  one day a voice with your name came through my iPhone and in an awkward panic, I was a stranger onto you.

A month has now passed and I wanted to say I'm sorry.  Those special feelings never ended and my love for what we had will stay with me as a treasure of my life.  As my end comes closer, a certain clarity shines through, the times and souls that touched us, touched me, changed me, loved me; they will forever be with me.

Yes, you are there.  Please don't take that distance last month as anything but a tired old soul hiding from his heart.

After all the loves of my life, after all the loves of my life, I'll be thinking of you......
and wondering, why?


A

Eyes Can Absorb Antioxidants From Green Tea, Which May Have a Protective Effect (In Rats)

Researchers fed laboratory rats green tea extract and then analyzed their eye tissues.

The results showed that different parts of the eye absorbed varying amounts of catechins. The area with the highest concentration of catechins was the retina, which is the light-sensing tissue that lines the back of the eye.

Antioxidant activity lasted for up to 20 hours after drinking green tea extract.

This is an animal study and we have no evidence that the same effect takes place in humans.

References:
http://www.webmd.com/eye-health/news/20100218/green-tea-good-for-the-eyes

Coffee vs. Tea - Infographic of Health Benefits and Risks http://goo.gl/StIsr
Image source: Green Tea leaves in a Chinese gaiwan. Wikipedia, Wikimol, Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.5 License.

LOST'S Buried Treasures 3rd Ed. by Lynnette Porter & David Lavery

Stars: ***1/2

Sourcebooks (January 2010)
Adult Nonfiction
305 pages

Summary: Lost is a complex and mysterious tale, one that draws on many sources for its themes and ideas - sources you must understand to become an advanced Lost expert. Lost's Buried Treasures is the ultimate unauthorized guide to the ideas that have influenced the show and it's writers - and is completely updated through Season Five.

This is not an episode guide, but a resource on books, movies, music, geographical clues and theories of LOST. A large majority of the book is all about the books seen, quoted from or alluded to. There is also a large section on the music talked about, listened to or used as a soundtrack in the show. It also talks about the two pretend bands often mentioned: DriveShaft and Geronimo Jackson.

You will also find Sawyerisms (those nicknames he calls everyone,) some info on Jacob and the Hurley/Sawyer connection. What connection am I talking about? I hadn't really noticed one myself till I read about it. It's about the relationship between the two and how it changes. At the beginning Sawyer is really rude and makes all kinds of cracks about his weight and such. In season 4 and 5 Sawyer starts to keep an eye out for Hurley, worries about him. There's also a full list of people who have died (or might be dead), how they died and if they've shown up to others after their death. You can find the full Table of Contents at this webpage at David Lavery.

The section on books was sometimes boring and sometimes very interesting. I found that when there were talking about books I didn't know anything about, it interested me less. It gives a quick explanation of the book if you don't know what it's about but when I know at least a little bit about the storyline and characters or even better, if I'd read the book, I enjoyed the explanation more. The best part was where it explains how much they got ideas from The Stand by Stephen King. If you want to know where they got ideas for different parts of the show, you'll find they got lots of ideas from other books.

It was an interesting read and helped me remember some things I'd forgotten before I started watching Season 6. I don't think it's a necessary book to read for all LOST fans but it would be good for those interested in the literary, media and pop culture references. 

*I received a copy of this book for review from Sourcebooks but my review is not affected at all by how I received the book.

Links of Interest: David Lavery,

Other Reviews: NONE YET

Buy LOST'S Buried Treasures at Amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews

MRNA

This story begins back in the fall of 2006, when Merck paid $1.1B for Sirna Therapeutics,  a little  RNA interference technology, a/k/a  RNAi, In 2001, Merck bought another biotech, Rosetta Inpharmatics, which specializes in this "targeted" type of RNAi technology.

We've had some success in prior blogs isolating and speculating on RNAi stocks.  Let's dip our toes back in again with MRNA.  Here is my executive summary (read: quick and capsuled analysis):
 

(1) Both MRNA's  CEO and Chief Scientific Officer are from Sirna, so not just one guy,  but two guys, in a real sense, the two most important guys;

(2) The company is focused on Liver and Bladder cancer, two areas without much effective treatment as best I can tell, again, this bodes well for their business model; 

(3) Existing licensing agreements with Hoffman-LaRoche and Novartis; 

(4) Something happened in early 2010 causing them to bring bladder cancer to the forefront and say that an IND would be filed THIS YEAR, by the fourth quarter; 

(5) At same time, they upped forecast from one to two deals with big pharma by year end.

All of this is good, very, very, good, but so what? Lots of $100-300 million dollar market cap companies have characteristics like these, well, not lots, but some do.  Except for this fact:  MRNA current market cap is only $39M.  THIRTY-NINE MILLION!   
So my take on MRNA just going this far is that they should be valued at between 3X and 8X current market valuation.  Sirna, which arguably had less going for it in 2006 then MRNA does now, was bought out by Merck for $1.1B in cash.  What was that all about?

From the press at the time of Sirna's buy out:

"So why exactly did Merck buy Sirna? Because the biotech specializes in RNA interference technology, also known as RNAi, which could conceivably be used to control gene activity to destroy cancer cells without harming healthy cells. In 2001, Merck bought another biotech, Rosetta Inpharmatics, which specializes in this "targeted" type of RNAi technology.

"Sirna has no products on the market. The most advanced experimental product in the biotech's pipeline, a potential treatment for a type of eye disease that can cause blindness, is years away from market approval, assuming its tests are successful. But that experimental product, called Sirna-072, is not the big draw for Merck, according to Ding Ding, analyst for Maxim Group.

"I think Merck paid $1.1 billion in cash really to buy the technology platform," said Ding. "I'm not convinced that Merck is going to continue the current pipeline that Sirna has. The key pipeline that interests Merck is oncology."

Source:   http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/31/news/companies/merck/index.htm

Admittedly, things are different now then they were in October, 2006. But only in macroeconomic matters, not so different in the pharmaceutical industry and its biotechnology incubators.  Not that I think someone is going to pay $1.1B for MRNA (all though they might), but based on all of the above, the management, the platforms, the progress, the targeted diseases, I think the upper range of $100-$300M is more likely then the lower range and that the lower range is almost a lock.  That's a lot of appreciation potential a year or two ahead.

MRNA Daily Trend Model - BUY PENDING

A

Disclaimer:  This stock might go down instead of up, down precipitously, you can lose everything leaving the door open for Tiger Woods, looking for your wife, or worse yet....you.

Claus von Bülow

Will today be the day that the Daily Trend Models signal a reversal of fortune for the equity markets?  We will know if and when the Daily Models breach thresholds at the close.  Before the Daily Models fall, the 240 minute models must go first, in the case of these models, by mid-day.

Below a graphical portrait of just how close some 240 minute models are to turning:

SDS 240 minute

SPX 240 minute

EDZ 240 minute

TZA 240 minute

DJIA 240 minute

At the trial in Newport, von Bülow was found guilty and sentenced to thirty years in prison; he appealed, hiring Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz to represent him. Dershowitz's campaign to acquit von Bülow was assisted by the then Harvard Law School student and later television personality Jim Cramer; Cramer privately and later publicly considered von Bülow to be "supremely guilty".[3] Professor Dershowitz and associates rendered doubtful the first trial's most damning evidence and testimony; in 1984 the conviction was reversed; in 1985, after a second trial, von Bülow was found not guilty on all charges.   

Professor Dershowitz wrote the book Reversal of Fortune: Inside the von Bülow case (1985) that was cinematically adapted as Reversal of Fortune (1990). Jeremy Irons starred as Claus von Bülow (a performance which won him both the Academy Award and Golden Globe for Best Actor), and Glenn Close as Sunny von Bülow.

Study: Protective role of lower body fat is striking, or how pear is better than apple

From Reuters:

People who accumulate fat around the abdomen and stomach are more likely to die of heart disease and other causes than bottom-heavy people.

People with fat in their thighs and backsides may live longer because the fat traps harmful fatty particles and actively secretes helpful compounds.

Fat on the bottom and thighs appears to store excess fatty acids. Pear-shaped people also appear to have lower levels of compounds called inflammatory cytokines.

Leg fat may also be better at producing hormones such as leptin, which are made by fat and affect appetite and metabolism.

References:
Why those fat thighs may help you live longer. Reuters, 2010.
Image source: Williams pear, 1822 printing from the Horticultural Society of London. Wikipedia, public domain.

In My Mailbox Monday - Feb. 22

This is the day when I highlight all the new books that have come into my house since the last time I participated.

In My Mailbox is hosted at The Story Siren while Mailbox Monday is hosted at The Printed Page. Since they are basically the same meme, I do them together. Check the links to find posts from others.

So what have I received for review?

You Can't Afford to Break Up: How an Empty Wallet and a Dirty Mind Can Save Your Relationship by Stacey Nelkin and Paul Schienberg, Ph.D.
(iUniverse) - received from Publicist

Critical Care: A New Nurse Faces Death, Life and Everything in Between by Theresa Brown (HarperStudio) - ARC, received from publisher through Shelf Awareness

The 5 Love Languages by Gary Chapman (Northfield Publishing) - special edition with leather cover received by author for Blog Tour

I am Nujood, Age 10 and Divorced by Nujood Ali with Delphine Minoui (Three Rivers Press, division of Random House) - received from publisher

Straight Talk for Teenage Girls by Annette Fuson (AuthorHouse) - received for Pump Up Your Book Promotion Tour in March.

That's it for this week!

NNVC Charts

NNVC Daily

NNVC Weekly

NNVC Monthly

Global Market Perspective

EWI is offering the latest edition of Global Market Perspective for free, which can be had by hitting the following link: Global Market Perspective. 

 Below is the opening chart and a short excerpt from this issue of GMP:

"The Dow's break of the its 10-month trendline from the March low indicates that the next major decline is underway.  This break aligns U.S. equities with a decline in foreign currencies, precious metals, commodities and oil, all of which turned down previously.  There should be no place to diversify from the intensifying bear market."

Is this chart a road map for the rest of 2010?  We don't know yet, but if it is there will be a tremendous amount of profitable trades to be had, which is one of the reasons I initiated the Trend Models and subscription service on January 1st.  Best case, we ride the third wave down in trend mode, through indexes, ETF's and individual stocks.  Worst case, this analysis is wrong, but we still ride the trend models on a daily basis for whatever opportunities, up, down, or both, which may be presented through our rule-based trading system.  This is a high probability strategy and we are at the cusp of what should be an outstanding pay-off, looking back in about 12 months.

For now, back to the  EWI's description of the content included in Global Market Perspective:

EWI is giving away one month of its most popular global analysis publication, a 100+ page "little black book" of investment insights called Global Market Perspective, which includes EWI's three regional publications:

The U.S. Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($19/month value)
The European Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($29/month value)
The Asian-Pacific Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($31/month value)
PLUS, the 100+ page book includes analysis culled straight from EWI's professional-grade Specialty Services, each of which is valued at $199/month. This means you also get analysis and forecasts for the following global markets:

World stock markets (China, Japan, Korea, U.S, France, Britain, Australia, Singapore and more)
Global interest rates (Australia, Europe, Japan, U.S.)
International currency relationships (U.S. Dollar, Euro rates, Swiss Francs, Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen and more)
Metals and Energy (Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas)

Occasionally I put up an offer from EWI because I think its a good deal.  The chart above, lifted from GMP without permission, is explained in more detail in over 50 pages of analysis of world stock markets. Although I think the Trend Models are sufficient for our trading needs, I also like having a big picture backdrop for what could be a historic period of financial turmoil, or not.

Meanwhile the first 90 minutes of trading this Monday morning have been uneventful.  Ergo, a plug for EWI and a lifted chart well worth the time to consider its implications.

A

Health News of the Day

25% of stroke patients die within a year

25 percent of people who had a stroke died within a year and 8 percent had another stroke within a year. They said 50 percent either died or had another stroke or a heart attack within four years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61E4TD20100215

Girls' involvement in team sports can mean lifelong improvements in educational, work and health prospects. NYTimes.

Counting Sheep Does Not Help You Fall Asleep

Subjects took slightly longer to fall asleep on nights they were instructed to distract themselves by counting sheep or were given no instructions at all. But when they were told to imagine a relaxing scene — a beach, for example — they fell asleep an average of 20 minutes sooner. Don’t count sheep; instead, try picturing relaxing images.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/16/health/16real.html

Non-hospitalized patients dealing with an IBD flare-up are 16 times more likely to suffer a blood clot in a vein

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61E4ON20100215

China discovers doughnuts — with salmon

"Patrick Lin is sure he can succeed where others have failed, and get the Chinese hooked on doughnuts. Doughnuts are shaped like pearl bracelets, and toppings include ham and cheese, red spaghetti sauce, salmon, spicy beef and seaweed flakes. "Dunkin' Donuts has dropped the sugar level as the Chinese, like Taiwanese, don't like snacks that are too sweet," she said. "It has also added new varieties, such as one with pork." Chinese newspapers don't have a word for doughnuts and call them "tian tian quan" or "sweet, sweet rings."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35394535/ns/business-consumer_news

Image source: OpenClipArt.org, public domain.

Subscribe and Connect by clicking on the buttons below:

Using Google Docs to facilitate patient flow in a health center via a shared spreadsheet

From Google Docs Blog:

"It is difficult to keep track of which patients are in which rooms, how many patients are in the waiting room, and how far the doctors are falling behind with their patients for the day. If patients were late, canceled their appointments, or the waiting room was overflowing, the doctor would be the last to know."

As an experiment, Southeast Health Center incorporated the “Check-in Tracker”, a shared spreadsheet on Google Docs, into their clinic flow which you can see a sample of below:

Image source: Google Docs Blog.

"When a patient checks in at the front desk, the clerk types “a” into the slot where that patient was scheduled. Using the “change color with rules” function, that slot turns orange to let everybody in the clinic know that Dr. Mark’s 8:15 AM patient has arrived. If the 8:55 AM patient arrives at 9:15 AM, the front desk types in “L 9:15” into that slot and the slot turns pink. Dr. Mark can look at the Google spreadsheet and type an “x” if he is unable to see the late patient or “ok” if he has time to see the patient. Patients in rooms turn green and indicate which room number. Discharged patients turn blue.

Everybody communicates in real time, because we are all signed into the same account."

References:
Using Google Docs to facilitate patient flow in a community health center. Google Docs Blog.

CSIQ

 "Allan,
   I notice csiq had some bad news. I wonder if you think it a good contender for the short list....Jeff"

Feb 19 (Reuters) - Chinese solar-cell maker Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ.O) cut its fourth-quarter gross margin view citing faulty equipment and a dip in prices, sending its shares down as much as 17 percent.

First of all, thanks Jeff for your email this morning and the idea for this post.

Below is my CSIQ 240 minute Trend Model chart, revealing a SELL SIGNAL generated on Thursday, February 18th when CSIQ broke and closed below 23.98, a pivot that was identified ahead of time as the reversal threshold from the previous LONG (generated Fen 11th @ 21.68).

CSIQ 240 minute Trend Model

But note how the Daily Model didn't flip SHORT until after the news hit:

In full disclosure, I don't follow CSIQ  in my nightly stock tables (although maybe I should), but here is a prime example of how the trend changed before the news hit.  Speaking of which, here is a close-up view of the CSIQ Weekly Model:

CSIQ Weekly Trend Model

An expanded Weekly Model below reveals the following Weekly Trend Signals going back about two years:

Buy week of 3/31/08 @ 21.50

Sell week of 6/30/08 @ 31.98

Buy week of 3/23/09 @  5.76

Sell week of 7/6/09   @  9.82

Buy week of 7/13/09 @ 13.90

Sell week of 1/11/10 @ 25.93

My new idea is to scan charts just before or just after the daily/weekly close for opportunities like CSIQ, including time frames like 240 minutes (about 1/2 day) and send out a list of these trade opportunities to subscribers.  This would be in addition to the usual trade suspects I follow each day.  This would also be a lot more work, but, Do what you love, or love what you do, both of which apply here (as if you didn't already suspect that was true for me).  

A

CSN Bookcase Review

Back in December I announced I was going to be reviewing a bookcase (bookshelf) from CSN Bookcases. I received it just before Christmas and almost immediately hung it up. A few days later I piled books onto it and I've been using it ever since.

So why haven't you seen a review yet? My camera broke. I wanted to provide photos of the bookcase in my house but my camera broke and the cheap one be bought to replace it takes really bad photos most of the time.

Anyways, with the help of my mother's camera, I bring to you, the review.

*Although I received the bookcase for review from CSN Bookcases, the review is honest and in no way affected by how I received the item.

I received the 4D Concepts Hanging Corner Storage in Espresso to review (pictured top right.) You can see what it looks like with books on it below.  I didn't exactly get the whole thing in the photograph as I was in a hurry and I forgot about the little princess heart hanging on the wall at the top but you get the idea.

It came in a small box as each piece was disassembled and laid flat. It wasn't as easy to put together as I've heard others say theirs were but it wasn't impossible. It took me 10 minutes to figure out which way the connected but actually connecting them was easy and just required a simple screwdriver. It was hanging the bookcase on the wall that was difficult. I had my father help me. I wanted it in a certain place so it didn't necessarily go into studs but it came with plastic anchors. I don't like electric drills so I helped line it up and he screwed the holes, put in the anchors and then screwed the bookcase to the wall.

I love it though. I chose it because I didn't have room for another one to sit on the ground. I wanted to make good use of my corner space. If you put more than a few books on it or a bunch of paperbacks, you do need bookends. My corner bookcase is over my couch so I was a little worried about the bookend falling off and hitting someone, especially since I'm using heavy brass ones. However so far it hasn't happened.

You can put your books on the case in different ways. I started out with each shelf different to show you the different ways but that photo was taken with the now broken camera. By the time I got a different camera here I had rearranged the shelves. I have my book spines facing out one wall but you could face them the other way. However then you see the back of your outermost book whereas this way you see the front. You could also stack them but it didn't look good that way. I also tried fanning them out in a quarter circle like the shelf they sit on but it didn't look as good as I thought it would.

I'm very happy with my bookcase, it is keeping my to-be-reviewed books and some to-read books handy but out of the way. It sells for $34.99 + shipping and taxes at CSN Bookcases, the place to buy bookcases. They ship to Canada or the USA.

Thanks again to CSN Bookcases for allowing me the opportunity to review a bookcase.