Monday, February 15, 2010

SPY Daily & Weekly Models

 On Sunday I published a 5 year study of the SPY Weekly Model.  If you look closely, that Weekly Model generated a little over 20 SPY points over the course of the past 12 months, a return (without leverage) of about 26%.

Below is a table of SPY Daily Model signals for the same 12 months, only instead of taking all signals, this model only trades when both the Daily and Weekly SPY Models are in agreement. 



These results address the advantage of trading only on the side of the dominant trend, in this case, the Weekly Model.  This is admittedly a small sample, but my historical testing supports these kinds of results in all indexes, stocks and ETF's for which I've run this simulation.  Not all of this backtesting is ready for publication, but this one is and I wanted to get it out tonight, since both the SPY Daily & Weekly Models are in sync going into this week's trading.


SPY Weekly Trend Model


This represents another way to use the Trend Models, combining multiple time periods to filter out lower probability trades.  You can do your own math on using the double (or triple) beta funds to trade these signals.  There are many more ideas along these lines which I will be sharing as we go forward into 2010.


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