Friday, February 19, 2010

VXX Major Bottom

Below is my Elliott Wave chart on VXX, discussed before in various posts.  In summary, the VXX is an ETF that follows VIX, the measure of market volatility which inversely follows the market up and down.  VXX is making new lows today, but as the chart below shows, by doing so it has created a major divergence with the Elliott Oscillator, indicating an impending reversal of the downtrend.  Adding to the evidence, my Advanced GET EW software is labeling this latest drop as an ending Wave 5.  Only the support level (blue horizontal line) allows for marginal lower prices before a major bottom is seen.

VXX Daily

Note how the peak in downward momentum occurred right where orthodox Elliott suggests it should, at the bottom of Wave 3 of 3 down, around the third week of October.   

Note also how well the VXX Daily Trend Model caught most of the entire shown decline.

Is it time to be long the VXX and start heavily shorting the stock market?  No, that's not how we trade.  We can anticipate the reversals but not act upon them until they occur.  That said, email subscribers know where the SPX Daily Model reverses Short, as well as where the SPX Weekly Model reverses Long.  Upon either of those events, everything will change.

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