Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Book Giveaway - July 1-4 - Canada Only

Happy Canada Day!

For a change, I have a book giveaway on my other blog, Callista's Ramblings. It's part of a blog party but any Canadian can enter. It's only open for Canada Day, till 11:59 PM EST July 1, 2010 It's open July 1-4, 2010!

I'm giving away We Know What You're Thinking: What Canadians Think and Why by Darrell Bricker and John Wright of Ipsos Reid which I reviewed here. You can read the review by clicking the link.

GIVEAWAY CLOSED

Trend Following Trading Models

It's been a good week for subscribers of my Trend Following Trading Models.  At the end of this post I'm posting the actual updated Trend Models.  But for starters, here is a snippet from the Weekend Update that went out Saturday, June 26th:

Trend Models & Trades of the Week

"This week generated a few intriguing new signals from the stock trend models.  Accordingly I am highlighting DISH and HGSI as dual Trades of the Week, both triggering Daily SELL SIGNALS. 

"There is also a relatively fresh Daily LONG signal for SDS, generated on Thursday's large decline in the SPX. Since SPX is SHORT and SDS is now LONG, let's add LONG SDS as our third Trade of the Week.

"Since all three of these Trades of the Week are on the SHORT side of the market, they are in that sense, all the same trade.  I personally prefer to mix my trades, some ETF's, some individual stocks, some options and use these fresh reversals to add to existing positions.  But there is a lot that can be said for keeping things much simpler, i.e. establish a SHORT position in the market by going LONG SDS and doing nothing else."


Index, ETF & Stock Trend Models as of June 30, 2010 


 Indexes


 ETF's


Stocks

Disclaimer:  Past performance is not indicative of future results

DJIA_60 minute chart

DJIA 60 minute trend model


This is what we are up against today, a low level consolidation pattern that is lulling us to sleep.  Note similar pattern from June 25-28th.  Same resolution?

Cognitive behavioural treatment may work for low-back pain

Low-back pain is a common and costly problem. This study estimated the effectiveness of a group cognitive behavioural intervention in addition to best practice advice in people with low-back pain in primary care.

Over 1 year, the cognitive behavioural intervention had a sustained effect on troublesome subacute and chronic low-back pain at a low cost to the health-care provider.

References:
Image source: Different regions (curvatures) of the vertebral column, Wikipedia, public domain.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

The Great Camping Event - July 26 - Aug 6, 2010


I'm pleased to announce a great cross-blog event I'm holding called The Great Camping Event. On BOTH of my blogs Callista's Ramblings and SMS Book Reviews, I'll be featuring product reviews and giveaways (on Callista's Ramblings), book reviews and giveaways (on SMS Book Reviews) and camping posts and guest posts (on Callista's Ramblings and SMS Book Reviews.)

Stop by my two blogs during the two week period for everything camping. Okay well maybe not everything. I won't be camping with bears or wolves, I won't be camping in a handmade teepee or digging my own latrine. (outdoor toilet) So most of what I feature or talk about will be related to tenting or cabins in an area with mostly squirrels, bunnies and birds. We do cook outside, hike, put up tents, build gadgets, light campfires and learn basic tracking, exploring, animal and nature skills.

I would however love some guest posts from people who do a different kind of camping (see below.)

ATTN: Companies, PR and Bloggers
I'm looking for companies, publishers and PR groups who wish to donate products for review and/or giveaways and bloggers who are interested in guest posting about camping or camping books or reading books while camping. I will be testing out any products or book knowledge July 18-25 at Girl Guide Camp. I am a leader and can have the girls and adults help me test everything out. So you'll get many opinions for the "price" of one. I will also be featuring a list of sponsors during the entire event on Callista's Ramblings and SMS Book Reviews. You may want to check out my PR page and Review Policies on each blog for more information.

Spread the Word and Get Extra Giveaway Entries
Please help me get the word out. If you put the following button in your sidebar of your blog and come back and let me know in the comments here, I will add 5 entries into EVERY giveaway you enter during the event on either blog.

You can scoop the code from the sidebar or you can save it and upload it yourself.

Math in the Movies!

A couple years ago I began using video clips in my continuing education classes for teachers. Why?  Short movie excerpts have the powerful ability to:
  • illustrate a point
  • incite discussion
  • provide a humorous "jumping off point" for a particular concept
  • pose "real life" problem solving
  • capture students' attention
  • address a variety of student learning styles
  • present a wide variety of mathematical strands
  • help students to consider what they know and what they have yet to learn
Many, many movies contain mathematical clips. Some are best used with advanced math students while others are perfect for younger children.

Consider this clip from the movie, Father of the Bride. Mr. Banks is frustrated by the fact that hotdog buns come in packs of 12 while hotdogs come in packs of 8. Pose the question to students:
How many packs of each would he need to buy to make the hotdogs and buns come out even?





Here's a clip from Ma and Pa Kettle. I love this clip because it illustrates how important it is for students to explain not only WHAT the answer is but also HOW they got an answer. Can your student explain where Ma/Pa went wrong in each proof?





I also enjoy math problems from game shows. Students of all ages like to feel smarter than television competition. (Why else are game shows so successful?)  Here's an excerpt from Who Wants to Be a Millionaire in which actress Patricia Heaton struggles to answer the following question:
If a Euro is $1.50, five Euros is worth what?

A. Thirty quarters
B. Fifty dimes
C. Seventy nickels
D. Ninety pennies 

Many more online resources are available on math in the movies:

Math and the Movies: Two teachers list many movie excerpts and provide free pdf lessons to go with each.

Mathematics in Movies: A Harvard professor has collected an extensive collection of movie titles. He includes the movie clips in a library on his site.

Simpsons Math: Math lessons using episodes from The Simpsons.

The Math in the Movies page: guide to major motion pictures with math scenes.

PBS Teachers Mathline: math movie activities.

Math at the Movies: examples, photos, exercises.

Countdown: using technology of Quicktime to develop math skills.

LivingMathForum: Julie compiled a list of recommended math video learning materials from the Living Math Forum Yahoo group.

Mathematics Goes to the Movies: titles and short descriptions of over 500 movies and TV episodes that contain mathematics. (Thanks, Sue, for alerting me to this site!) 

A few movie titles that are totally oriented around math and may be worth purchasing to add to your own math library:





















And, of course, any of the Cyberchase episodes. (My kids have learned an incredible amount of math from watching this PBS series. You can also play on-line games and see some excerpts at the PBS kids website.)

Lastly, on YouTube you can see Norton Juster's The Dot and the Line... Enjoy! :)

Children's Math Booklist--updated!

I'm continually updating my Living Math Booklist. Check it out and let me know of missing books that you love! ;)

DJIA_240 Trend Model

Here is a follow-up to yesterday's DJIA Perspectives blog.  It's the DJIA_240min Trend Model with today's opening gap down.  Initial target for Wave 5 is 9500.

Episodic hypertension is a strong predictor of stroke risk

The mechanisms by which hypertension causes vascular events are unclear. Guidelines for diagnosis and treatment focus only on underlying mean blood pressure.

In each TIA cohort in this study, visit-to-visit variability in systolic blood pressure (SBP) was a strong predictor of subsequent stroke (eg, top-decile hazard ratio [HR] for SBP 6·22), independent of mean SBP.

Maximum SBP reached was also a strong predictor of stroke (HR 15).

Visit-to-visit variability in SBP on treatment was also a strong predictor of stroke and coronary events (top-decile HR for stroke: 3·25) independent of mean SBP.

Visit-to-visit variability in SBP and maximum SBP are strong predictors of stroke, independent of mean SBP. Increased residual variability in SBP in patients with treated hypertension is associated with a high risk of vascular events.

References:
Image source: BP device used for measuring arterial pressure. Wikipedia, GNU Free Documentation License.

Monday, June 28, 2010

DJIA perspectives

Here are three time perspectives of the DJIA which may explain the current indecision in the market place. 



60 minute


240 minute


Daily

Help Wanted

My Trend Following Trading Models subscription service is at a key breakout level and I am both honored by your support for my work and frustrated that there are not enough hours in my day to expand the service to its highest and best potential.  I am seeking some help to take things to the next level.

First, I want a professional web site where I can keep updated charts and signals on multiple time frames.  Second, I would like the web site to have a special tutorial sections explaining the nuts and bolts of the system, along with nuances that are of practical help in applying and managing the models. Third, I would like the website to have an archive of all alerts sent out since inception of the service.

Finally, I would like to get the word out about the service beyond my loyal blog readers.  I think there is a huge market for a simple yet effective trading system for stocks and indexes.  A little promotion could go a long way in making the service better for everyone.

If you have the skills and motivation to help me accomplish these goals, send me an email: allallan@me.com


A

Alcohol consumption and raised body mass index (BMI) act together to increase risk of liver disease

Drinkers of 15 or more units per week in any BMI category and obese drinkers had raised relative rates for all definitions of liver disease, compared with underweight/normal weight non-drinkers.

The relative excess risk due to interaction between BMI and alcohol consumption was 5.58.

Raised BMI and alcohol consumption are both related to liver disease, with evidence of a supra-additive interaction between the two.

The occurrence of both factors in the same populations should inform health promotion and public health policies.

References:
Image source: Wikipedia, public domain.

New Developments in Treatment of Diabetes Type 2

From The Lancet theme issue on diabetes:

Diabetes confers a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases - heart disease and stroke. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2·00 for coronary heart disease; 2·27 for ischaemic stroke; 1·56 for haemorrhagic stroke; 1·84 for unclassified stroke; and 1·73 for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. http://goo.gl/ucF0

Increased occurrence of cough and change in pulmonary function in the group receiving inhaled insulin - Lancet http://goo.gl/ve3G

Once weekly exenatide is an important therapeutic option for patients with type 2 diabetes http://goo.gl/UL3e

Dapagliflozin, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2 inhibitor), provides a new therapeutic option for type 2 diabetes http://goo.gl/FqIM

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Again, for the first time

I knew this song was special when I first heard it, lying in my bed on Roselawn, Northwest Detroit, circa 1966, listening to WBZ in Boston, which I could only receive on my transistor radio late at night. I listened for weeks, just to hear this song, before it made its way to the local Detroit radio stations.

Fast forward to 2010, when once more the sentiment reaches deep, touching my life again, for the first time.

A


Saturday, June 26, 2010

Do Nothing But Read Day - How did I not know about this???


Seriously, how did I NOT know about this? Did YOU know about this?

Do Nothing But Read Day is held twice a year, June 27 and December 19.

So that is what I'll be doing tomorrow as much as possible. I'll be reading.

I'll be reading The Cinderella Society by Kay Cassidy and reading the text in some of my cookbooks for an upcoming cookbook week. Perhaps something else, we'll see.

Will YOU be reading?

BP - Accleration of global financial crisis

This linked article from OilPrice.com paints a very scary picture of financial fallout from the oil volcano and the imminent demise of BP.  But with crisis comes opportunity and according to this author, that opportunity is identified in the bottom excerpted paragraph below.


BP Daily Trend Model

Article Excerpts:

"The BP crisis in the Gulf of Mexico has rightfully been analyzed (mostly) from the ecological perspective. People's lives and livelihoods are in grave danger. But that focus has equally masked something very serious from a financial perspective, in my opinion, that could lead to an acceleration of the crisis brought about by the Lehman implosion.
"People are seriously underestimating how much liquidity in the global financial world is dependent on a solvent BP. BP extends credit - through trading and finance. They extend the amounts, quality and duration of credit a bank could only dream of. The Gold community should think about the financial muscle behind a company with 100+ years of proven oil and gas reserves. Think about that in comparison with what a bank, with few tangible assets, (truly, not allegedly) possesses (no wonder they all started trading for a living!). Then think about what happens if BP goes under. This is no bank. With proven reserves and wells in the ground, equity in fields all over the planet, in terms of credit quality and credit provision - nothing can match an oil major. God only knows how many assets around the planet are dependent on credit and finance extended from BP. It is likely to dwarf any banking entity in multiples.
"If BP does go bust (regardless of whether it is deserved), and even if it is just badly wounded and the US entity is allowed to fail, the long-term OTC derivatives in the oil, refined products and natural gas markets that get nullified could be catastrophic.
"The market, intellectually lazy and slow to realization, as it often is, probably has not woken up to it yet - but the BP crisis could unleash damage similar to the banking crisis. A BP failure through bankruptcy could make Lehman look small in comparison, and shake the financial house of cards we live in even more severely. If the implicit danger of the possibilities embedded in such an event doesn't make an individual now turn towards gold at full speed, it is likely that nothing will."


 GLD Monthly Trend Model

The Book About Tony Chestnut by Laurie Monopoli (The Learning Station)

Stars: ****

Learning Station (2010)
Picture Book
48 pages
3-7 years old

Summary: Most North Americans know the song "Tony Chestnut." Well this is a book version. It comes with a CD with the song and different versions of the story being read aloud. In this story, Tony Chestnut is trying to help his sister Eileen with her friendship troubles. 

About the Song
For anyone who isn't familiar with the song, the song goes as follows:

Tony Chestnut knows I love you. Tony knows. Tony knows.
Tony Chestnut knows I love you. That's what Tony knows.

Actions:
For the actions, you touch the part of the body indicated by the words.

TO-NY (Toe-Knee)
CHEST-NUT (Chest-Head(your nut))
KNOWS - nose
I - eye
LOVE - heart
YOU - point to someone else

No one knows who created the original version but in 1997, The Learning Station released an extended version featuring the characters of Eileen, Neil, Pat, Bob, Russell and Skip which has become very well-known and is sung by kids all around the world.  Lyrics to Learning Station version.

About the Story
I think the story is really cute and a great reminder of how to be a good friend. It's a true friendship story and as a Girl Guide leader, I could easily use the story during a friendship theme. It would be perfect for Kindergarten. My girls (ages 3 and 4) love the book and although they normally aren't fans of books on CD, they love to "read" along with the CD. Tony is a great brother and friend to his sister Eileen when she is sad about leaving her friends.

The Book About Tony Chestnut has already received 4 outstanding 2010 awards including, Disney’s iParenting Media Award of Excellence, Creative Child Magazine MEDIA OF THE YEAR, Dr. Toy’s Best Vacation Products for Children, and Tillywig TOP FUN. 

About the CD
The accompanying CD has 5 tracks. You can hear the story read aloud by British storyteller Jeanne Bowyer with or without page turn sound, or hear the story read by Tony Chestnut himself with page turn sound. You can listen to the Tony Chestnut song and you can even hear some thought-provoking questions for interactive discussion. These are tailored to the 3-7 age group and could be used with your own children, as part of a kid book group or in a school setting.


About the Learning Station
The Learning Station is a multi-award winning children's recording and performing company. The trio comprised of Don Monopoli, Laurie Monopoli and Jan Hrkach has combined backgrounds and degrees in early childhood education, child development and music.

Links of Interest: The Learning Station, Tony Chestnut, Tony Chestnut Training Handout (PDF),

Other Reviews: NONE YET

Buy The Book About Tony Chestnut at amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews

* I received a copy of this book for review. All reviews are honest and are not affected in any way by how I acquired the book.

The Beautiful Game can kill you: soccer/football managers and viewers at high risk for heart disease

Almost half of England's football managers have "significant" heart problems and their life-consuming, high-pressure jobs are a "recipe for potential disaster" according to cardiovascular experts. This is hardly surprising considering the range of emotions demonstrated by Fabio Capello (age 64), the current manager of the England national football team, in the videos below:



A stressful soccer match affects everybody involved including the spectators.

The Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup, held in Germany from June 9 to July 9, 2006, provided an opportunity to examine the relation between emotional stress and the incidence of cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular events occurring in 4,000 patients in the greater Munich area were prospectively assessed by emergency physicians during the World Cup.

On days of matches involving the German team, the incidence of cardiac emergencies was 2.66 times that during the control period. For men, the incidence was 3.26 times that during the control period, and for women, it was 1.82 times that during the control period.

On those days, the highest average incidence of events was observed during the first 2 hours after the beginning of each match.

Viewing a stressful soccer match more than doubles the risk of an acute cardiovascular event. In view of this excess risk, particularly in men with known coronary heart disease, preventive measures are urgently needed.


Video: Angry Capello [ Algeria Vs England ].

References:
Nearly half of football managers suffer serious heart problems. Independent, 2005.
Cardiovascular events during World Cup soccer. N Engl J Med. 2008 Jan 31;358(5):475-83.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Is this chart tradable?

SPX 30 Minute Trend Model


While awaiting swirling tropical depressions to stir-up the venomous spewing volcano of oil and God knows what else  into the Gulf and surrounding areas, including but not limited to the entire Southeast coast of our country, ask yourself:  Is this chart tradable?  

I think so and have built a subscription service around similar models.  Yes, this is a particularly effective segment of trend following, but there are enough of these looking charts to more then compensate for the choppy ones.

Yea, I'm allowed to tout my own horn, then again, don't get me started.


A

TRE

Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation, an exploration stage company, engages in the acquisition and exploration of natural resource properties. It primarily involves in the exploration of gold properties, with a focus on exploring for gold properties in Tanzania.

TRE was in the initial Gold & Silver Basket sent out to subscribers last weekend.  There was no easy entry here, you just buy the uptrend.



There will be one of those Wave 5 Buy Signals along the way up for an easier entry, but, from what levels?  This is a nice chart and a nicely leveraged play on the price of gold.


A

Ethosuximide and valproic acid are more effective than lamotrigine in childhood absence epilepsy

Childhood absence epilepsy, the most common pediatric epilepsy syndrome, is usually treated with ethosuximide, valproic acid, or lamotrigine.

Ethosuximide and valproic acid are more effective than lamotrigine in the treatment of childhood absence epilepsy. Ethosuximide is associated with fewer adverse attentional effects.



References:
Ethosuximide, Valproic Acid, and Lamotrigine in Childhood Absence Epilepsy. NEJM, 2010.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Tell Me a Story 3: Women of Wonder: Stories by Amy Friedman (Review and Opinion on Audio Books)



This week is Audiobook Week at Devourer of Books. I said I'd participate by sharing a audio book review. This has turned into more of a post on why audio books aren't for me.

Warning: I don't like audio books. I've listened to two in my entire life. So consider this an audiobook review from a non-audiobook reader.

Stars: ***

Stories: Amy Friedman
Music: Laura Hall
Part of a trilogy of kid's stories from Universal Press Syndicate


Summary: Legendary heroines and goddesses seek and struggle, win and lose, laugh and cry in magical stories and marvelous music from around the world.

Disclaimer: I did not finish this book. I normally wouldn't review a book I don't finish but since I didn't finish it because of me, and not because it was bad, I still wanted to tell my readers about it.

The only other audio books I've listened to was Heidi on an ipod. It was a free download and I really enjoyed the book but I had seen the movie and knew I liked the storyline at least.

When I was offered to review this audio book CD, I was going to say no as I don't listen to audio books but I liked that it was about heroines and goddesses and figured since it was children's stories, they would be short and I could handle it. So I said yes. That was quite some time ago and I just kept putting off listening to it and putting it off some more. I finally tried listening to it during the last readathon because I'm often busy with something else and can't read so I figured this would be a good idea. I forced myself to listen to one story and couldn't anymore.

Audio books just aren't for me. There was nothing wrong the story and Amy Friedman's voice was pleasant. I just find it really hard to imagine what it happening when someone else is telling the story. I was never fond of read-aloud stories unless I had a book to follow along with as well. I prefer to hold the story in my hand and read it at my own pace. That's one reason why I don't like audio books. I read fast. Really fast. Audio books sound like they are speaking like a snail to me. By the time they get the sentence out, I've forgotten what was being talked about.

This is a good story. Women of Wonder won the 2010 Audie for best original work. You can find out the name and synopsis of the stories on the CD at Myths and Tales.

Let  this be a lesson to me, no more audio books.

Links of Interest: Myths and Tales,

Other Reviews: NONE YET

Buy Tell Me a Story 3: Women of Wonder at amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews

Breaking Bad

Set and produced in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Breaking Bad is the story of Walter White (Bryan Cranston), a struggling high school chemistry teacher who is diagnosed with terminal lung cancer at the beginning of the series. He breaks down and turns to a life of crime, producing and selling methamphetamine with his former student Jesse Pinkman (Aaron Paul) in a desire to secure his family's financial future.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

INDU - Wave 5 Sell Signal

Below is my DJIA chart with the elements of the Advanced GET Wave 5 Sell Signal imposed upon price movement the past few weeks. You can see that all elements of the mechanical sell signal are now in place, with a target for the move of between 9200-9700 on the DJIA.  Also noted is the reversal level of 10,120 which turns the Daily Trend Following Model SHORT.




The elements of a mechanical Wave 5 Sell Signal:
(1) A measured three-wave decline followed by a fourth wave advance;
(2) Wave four channel up into Fibonacci window (50%);
(3) Elliott Oscillator retraces from oversold back to the zero line (middle study);
(4) False Bar Stochastic Sell Signal (bottom study);
(5) Price break-down through trend channels to begin Wave 5 decline.

VXX Trend Models

Below is the VXX 480 min and Daily charts.  The 480 minute chart, by its construction, is a good precursor for new Daily chart signals.  In this case, its suggesting an imminent Buy on the VXX Daily @ 28.35, which would be a negative signal for the general market.

VXX 480 Minute Trend Model


VXX Daily Trend Model

Norepinephrine Causes Fewer Adverse Events Than Dopamine in the Treatment of Shock

Both dopamine and norepinephrine (Levophed) are recommended as first-line vasopressor agents in the treatment of shock. There is a continuing controversy about whether one agent is superior to the other.

Although there was no significant difference in the rate of death between patients with shock who were treated with dopamine as the first-line vasopressor agent and those who were treated with norepinephrine, the use of dopamine was associated with a greater number of adverse events.

References:
Comparison of Dopamine and Norepinephrine in the Treatment of Shock. NEJM, 2010.
Image source: Wikipedia, public domain.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Bellwethers

A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings.
The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading its flock of sheep.  The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight.











Mysterious inexplicable coincidence

Below is a six month view of NNVC with the Daily Trend Model, Elliott Wave and a couple of Trend Regression Channels imposed upon prices.  The larger channel is of Primary degree up from the inception of this latest uptrend from last November's low and a smaller one of Major degree that contained the most recent sell-off.



There is a lot to take in on this chart, but notice how three of the Daily Trend Model LONG signals come in right at the larger Trend Regression Channel, including the most recent LONG signal on June 16.  There is something eloquent about this symmetry, although I don't really understand the how or why of it, or, if it is merely another reminder of our respective paths in life;  mysterious, inexplicable, coincidence. 


A

Oral ivermectin superior to topical malathion lotion in eradicating difficult-to-treat head-lice infestation

Head-lice infestation is prevalent worldwide, especially in children 3 to 11 years old.

Topical insecticides (i.e., pyrethroids and malathion) used as a lotion, applied twice at an interval of 7 to 11 days, are typically used for treatment. Resistance of lice to insecticides, particularly pyrethroids, results in treatment failure.

For difficult-to-treat head-lice infestation, oral ivermectin, given twice at a 7-day interval, had superior efficacy as compared with topical 0.5% malathion lotion, a finding that suggests that it could be an alternative treatment.

Why does head louse not infest body and vice versa?

Possible explanation: Body lice lay their eggs on clothing fibers instead of hair fibers (http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/1108991-overview).

References:
Oral Ivermectin versus Malathion Lotion for Difficult-to-Treat Head Lice. NEJM, 2010.

Updated: 06/24/2010

Monday, June 21, 2010

NNVC - on the road to triple digits

This morning's press release is a huge step forward in NNVC's migration to respectability. Devour each paragraph, each sentence below with one eye on the ramifications of this animal study on the entire platform of nanoviricides being developed and as an authentic paradigm changing event in anti-viral treatment.  If NNVC is going to triple digits, this is the springboard from which share price should never look back.


Anti-Dengue Nanoviricides Achieve Significant Protection in Initial In Vivo Studies on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever


WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company") reports that its anti-Dengue drug candidates demonstrated significant protection in the initial animal survival studies of Dengue virus infection. The studies were performed in the laboratory of Dr. Eva Harris, Professor of Infectious Diseases at the University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley).

Treatment with one of the anti-Dengue nanoviricides® led to survival of 50% of the animals for the duration of study in the ADE model. In addition, animals treated with several anti-Dengue nanoviricides survived longer than the control animals treated with vehicle alone. This ADE model of infection is uniformly fatal in 100% of the infected animals within 5 days after infection.

Dr. Harris is a leading researcher in the field of dengue viruses. Her group has developed a unique animal model for the most severe and potentially fatal form of Dengue virus infection in humans, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever/Dengue Shock Syndrome (DHF/DSS). The model emulates the “Antibody-Dependent Enhancement (ADE)” of Dengue virus infection in humans that is believed to lead to DHF/DSS.

“We are very excited about these results,” said Professor Harris, adding, “This is a very important demonstration of a viable drug candidate leading to significant survival in the ADE model of Dengue virus infection. I believe nanoviricides show great promise in our model and against severe dengue disease.”

“The first screen has already shown that we are on the right path,” said Anil R. Diwan, PhD, President of the Company, adding, “We believe we have at least one potential drug candidate against Dengue now.”

“We have been able to produce an effective drug candidate against dengue in a very short time,” said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, Chief Executive Officer of the Company, adding, “This demonstrates the strength of the nanoviricides technology platform.”

The Company has previously reported significant efficacy of several nanoviricides in two different in vitro (cell culture) tests against dengue virus type 2 conducted by Professor Harris’ Lab. Some of these nanoviricides were tested in vivo in the present study.

Dengue is receiving significant international attention as it threatens over 40% of the world population, according to WHO. Dengue cases with significant fatality rates have started rising in tropical countries this year already, as demonstrated by reports from India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Philippines, Cambodia, and Colombia, among others. Dengue is endemic in Asia, Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America and many countries in South America. Dengue virus infections have occurred in the southern US states, including a current outbreak in Key West, and travel leads to sporadic cases of dengue in the US.

Foundations run by Bill Gates and Carlos Slim are now teaming up with Spain to donate a total of $150 million to fight dengue fever, malaria and malnutrition in Mexico and Central America under the 2015 Meso-American Health Initiative (http://blog.taragana.com/health/2010/06/14/bill-gates-carlos-slim-announce-150-million-health-donation-for-mexico-central-america-24172/).

Dengue virus, a member of the Flaviviridae family of viruses that includes West Nile and Hepatitis C viruses, is transmitted to humans via female Aedes mosquitoes. There are 4 different serotypes of Dengue virus that infect humans. When a person is infected with Dengue virus for the first time, the disease may not be severe, inducing fever, muscle and joint pain, and rash. When the same person is later infected by a different Dengue virus serotype a more severe disease may develop; Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever/Dengue Shock Syndrome (DHF/DSS) occurs in a significant portion of this population. This DHF/DSS may be due to ADE caused by antibodies produced during the first infection. According to the WHO, fatality rates of DHF/DSS can exceed 20%. Currently there are no approved vaccines for prevention nor drugs for treatment of Dengue virus infection.

P.S.A. testing can’t detect prostate cancer, says its discoverer

Richard J. Ablin in the NYTimes:

"Approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 1994, the P.S.A. test’s popularity has led to a hugely expensive public health disaster. It’s an issue I am painfully familiar with — I discovered P.S.A. in 1970.

The annual bill for P.S.A. screening is at least $3 billion, with much of it paid for by Medicare and the Veterans Administration.

As I’ve been trying to make clear for many years now, P.S.A. testing can’t detect prostate cancer and, more important, it can’t distinguish between the two types of prostate cancer — the one that will kill you and the one that won’t."

References:
The Great Prostate Mistake. NYTimes.
Image source: Wikipedia, public domain.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Honest Scrap Award


I received the Honest Scrap award from Tribute Books!

As with most blog awards, no one knows who started it anymore and the rules keep changing. A google search showed this as the most common set of rules:

A) List 10 honest things about yourself—and make them interesting, even if you have to dig deep!
B) Pass the award on to 7 bloggers who you feel embody the spirit of the Honest Scrap and whose blogs you find brilliant in design or content.

10 Honest Things About Me (that you may not know)
  1. I was run over by a school bus when I was 5 years old.
  2. I'm Pagan.
  3. I bought my own house at age 23.
  4. I find spelling and grammar interesting and important and it REALLY bugs me when people spell things wrong or say them wrong or use improper grammar (well the basic grammar anyways.)
  5. When I was a kid and a teen I wanted 8 kids. Not anymore.
  6. I don't like carnival rides that go upside down or go too fast. I don't ride roller coasters.
  7. I never went to college or university because of mental illness but I was going to pursue child psychology or child and youth worker.
  8. Now I'd like to be a medical transcriptionist or something like that as I can work on a computer and I love filling in forms and typing things. I'm a fast typer.
  9. I love playing Wii, especially Wii Fit Plus. I also like Rock Band, Mario Party 8 and Mario Kart.
  10. I'm a Girl Guide Leader.
Okay now to the 7 bloggers I'm passing this on to:
  1. The Book Bug
  2. The Sweet Bonjour
  3. Once Upon a Bookcase
  4. Peace, Love and Reviews
  5. The Window Seat Reader
  6. Book Snob Wannabe
  7. Niki's Book Reviews

GOLD

Let's not keep banging our heads against the wall when there is a clear Wave 3 advance taking place in the precious metals.  I sent out a Gold & Silver Basket to my subscribers earlier this weekend and expect to add more gold and silver stocks going forward.  What follows are three views of the the gold market and a table comparing returns on those charts to returns from a basket of mining stocks during the psat 18 months.  This looks like the real deal to me.

GLD


DGP


GDX


Below is a copy of an email Alert I sent out to subscribers over the weekend, illustrating the potential that individual mining stocks have over even leveraged gold and silver indexes:

Here is exactly why I prefer individual gold stocks to indexes and/or leveraged indexes.  The individual Gold & Silver stocks come from the current list and/or stocks I have written up on my blog during the time period. Note that the SPX for the same period is up +44%.
Dates:  1/1/2009 through 6/19/2010

Gold & Silver Indexes
 

GLD  83.92--->122.83 =  46%
SLV  11.09---> 18.75   =  69%
GDX  31.31---> 54.06  =  72%
          Average = +62%

Select Gold & Silver Stocks

ANV   3.92---> 21.83   = 457%
GSS   1.27--->  4.41     = 247%
TRE   3.50--->  4.90     =  36%
KMKCF 0.30--->1.96  = 553%
SWC   4.84---> 13.53   = 180%
TGB   0.98--->  5.04    = 415%
SVM   2.08--->  7.50   = 260%

     
          Average = +307%

Father's Day

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Got BP?

Published: Saturday, 19 Jun 2010 | 4:46 PM ET By: Reuters

It took days of very public pressure from President Obama and countless hours of private negotiations, but BP finally agreed on Wednesday to put $20 billion in an independently managed compensation fund and to provide the government a list of shareholders for public execution. After meeting with the company’s top executives at the White House, Mr. Obama also announced that beginning July 1, BP shareholders will be executed, one by one, until the gushing oil leak was stopped.

“The people of the gulf have my commitment that BP will meet its obligations,” the president declared, adding that, "[the] shareholders took their chances when they bought the shares [of the beleaguered oil company] and that now it was time to pay the consequences for their actions." Obama added that the executions would not pre-empt any claims in court.


SPX Trading Model

I started Trend Following Trading Models in early January.  The chat below chronicles all of the real time signals of the SPX Daily Model since inception.  I consider this model the defining model of the dominant trend in the markets.

SPX Daily Trend Model


1/21 Sell 1116    +21
2/16 Buy 1095  +97
4/16 Sell 1192   -25
4/23 Buy 1217   -33
4/27 Sell 1184   +69
6/15 Buy 1115    +2

Total SPX points = +131

Disclaimer:  There results might be random.  Who knows? I am not offering investment advice, nor are my models. I might be random. Who knows?  The Who is a rock and roll band from the 70's and my mention of them does not suggest they know any more then the rest of us, nor does it constitute an endorsement of their music and conversely, nor does it constitute their endorsement of me, or my models, or of the randomness in our lives.  Not that there is anything wrong with randomness.  It just that after all of these years, it does tend to tire one out.  But that's another story, one for some random Sunday blog.

Lawyers Opinion: Risky Business - Tweeting the Symptoms of Social Media

From Risky Business - Tweeting the Symptoms of Social Media (PDF):

"To date there are at least 540 hospitals in the United States utilizing social media tools: Hospitals account for 247 YouTube channels, 316 Facebook pages, 419 Twitter accounts, and 67 blogs.

The number of individual and independent medbloggers is in the thousands.

In December of 2009, a hospital employee was forced to resign because of a single tweet.

On October 29, 2008, a patient provided what is believed to be the first live tweet from the operating room. “Bad bad stick. Ow ow ow ow ow.”

In response to online physician rating websites, like Yelp, RateMD, and others, a company now offers physicians an antidefamation service, including contract provisions restricting a patient’s right to make negative comments on rating websites.

There are a number of other scenarios that could lead to liability. For example, what happens if an “off-duty” physician responds to a health question by a neighbor while doing yard work? Suppose the same exchange occurs through online “messages” between a physician and one of the physician’s “friends” on Facebook, creating an electronic record of the exchange that could potentially support the existence of a physician-patient relationship, thereby creating certain liability arising therefrom (e.g., HIPAA, medical malpractice, patient abandonment, etc.).

The authors of a National Law Journal article warn that bosses who “friend” are begging to be sued."

References:
AHLA Connections: Legal Implications of Health Care Social Media.
Image source: public domain.

Friday, June 18, 2010

Book Blogger Hop: June 18

Well I haven't participated in the Book Blogger Hop in a while because I keep forgetting but

Welcome

to all visitors.

This blog has been around for 7 years, regularily updated for 3 years but I"ve been reviewing books for 9. I mostly review nonfiction ( for all ages) and children's books (from picture books to YA.)

I created the Delicious Book Blog Directory because I was unhappy with most of the other directories and wanted a more comprehensive one (no offense to those who created the others!)

I just created a facebook page for my blog and I'm trying to up my numbers for that and Google Friend Connect so if you follow me on GFC or like me on facebook, leave me a comment on here or on the facebook page and I'll follow/like you back.

The Ultimate Social Media in Medicine Presentation (182 Slides)


The author, Maged Boulos, has published widely on social media uses in medicine and health informatics. He features this website in the presentation as one of the examples of medical blogs but I have had no influence on the inclusion. The link is via Berci.

Sexual life expectancy is longer for men than women

A BMJ study of middle aged and older adults showed that men were more likely than women to be sexually active, report a good quality sex life, and be interested in sex.

These gender differences increased with age and were greatest among the 75 to 85 year old group: 38.9% of men compared with 16.8% of women were sexually active, 70.8% versus 50.9% of those who were sexually active had a good quality sex life, and 41.2% versus 11.4% were interested in sex.

People in very good or excellent health were 1.5 to 1.8 times more likely to report an interest in sex than those in poorer health. At age 30, sexually active life expectancy was 34.7 years for men and 30.7 years for women compared with 14.9 to 15.3 years for men and 10.6 years for women at age 55.

At age 55, men in very good or excellent health on average gained 5-7 years of sexually active life compared with their peers in poor or fair health. Women in very good or excellent health gained 3-6 years compared with women in poor or fair health.

References:
Image source: OpenClipart.org, public domain.

A Gold & Silver Basket

In late 2009 I wrote a piece on Gold, highlighting two promising gold stocks, ANV and SWC:

http://allallan.blogspot.com/2009/09/gold.html  

Since that write-up, ANV went from $9 to over $20, while SWC went from $7 to over $13.





I wasn't utilizing the Trend Models back then, not like I am now, but those two stocks have clearly been huge winners in mega long term trends.   We know from the Trend Tables that gold and silver trend well, especially in longer-term models.  We can glean from the performance of these two stocks that applying trend analysis to individual gold and silver stocks can produce some nicely out sized gains.

 In January, 2009 I wrote up TGB @ $1.  It ran to over $6:

http://allallan.blogspot.com/2009/01/markets-and-new-pick.html



The more I think about a Gold & Silver Basket to complement the Trend Models, the more appealing the idea becomes to me.  While waiting for Armageddon to arrive to the stock market, this could very well be an excellent sector to generate solid returns.  I hope to get started on the basket in this coming subscriber Weekend Update.


A

Thursday, June 17, 2010

What's new in infectious diseases from UpToDate

- Brain MRI may be useful in patients with endocarditis. In one study including 53 patients, early use of cerebral MRI led to the reclassification from possible to definite IE in 30% of cases.

Figure 1. TEE shows AV Endocarditis in a patient with IVDA. There is a large vegetation on the aortic valve with 2-3+ AI (click to enlarge the image). Source: Double Hit – Right and Left-Sided Endocarditis in a Heroin Abuser.

- Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis was associated with a 50 percent reduction in deaths in patients starting antiretroviral therapy with CD4 counts lower than 200 cells.

- Universal influenza immunization: In 2010, the CDC expanded the recommendation for influenza vaccination to include all individuals 6 months of age and older. Previous guidelines recommended influenza vaccination for individuals over age 50 and for those at increased risk of influenza complications and close contacts of such individuals.


35% of UpToDate topics are updated every four months. The editors select a small number of the most important updates and share them via "What's new" page.

The page does not provide RSS feed for the different specialties. One solution is to copy/paste the URL address of each subspecialty page you are interested in the Google Reader "Add a subscription" field (top left corner). Google Reader will automatically create a RSS feed from this "feedless" page.



References:
What's new in infectious diseases. UpToDate, 2010.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Big picture review

Has the big picture changed since last Friday's post? 



The above SPX Daily chart illustrates an Advanced GET set-up for a 100+ point SPX decline.  We have a measured 4th wave, an Elliott Oscillator almost to the zero line, a False Bar Stochastic about to flip over and prices into the Fibonacci reversal window.  A break now through the Trend Regression Channel coming up from the  "B" Wave low containing the "C" Wave advance will trigger the trade.

The market can keep advancing and cancel out this pattern, but it can also finally reverse and provide an excellent trade opportunity to the downside.  It should tip its hand in the next few days.


A

NNVC

I sent this out to my subscribers yesterday, here it is with updated charts:

A couple of encouraging NNVC charts.  First, the 480 minute which is LONG.  This is an excellent proxy for the Daily chart, a little more sensitive and usually a precursor for the Daily Model flipping. Second, the Daily chart, which although still bearish, when looked at with the 480 minute chart, can be considered very much in Pending BUY mode.



And one more that I have been watching, for traders only, the NNVC Hourly Model:



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