8/5/09 BUY 22.00 +11.30 +51%
11/27/09 SELL 33.30 +6.28 +19%
2/10/10 BUY 26.92 +7.89 +29%
5/20/10 SELL 34.81 open open
The most recent SELL signal was May 20th and with AIG closing Friday at 34.75, this trade has not taken off, not yet. The AIG Weekly Trend Model did trigger its own SELL Signal on Friday's close, so this becomes an example of a fresh, actionable trade.
The previous three trades averaged 33% gains, so at a minimum, I would expect a drop to about the mid-20's on this trade. That estimate is pure speculation, but in crafting an option play based upon this signal, a projection like this can be helpful. The other trades lasted about three months each, so that too enters into option analysis.
Shorting the stock here is the cleanest, easiest play on this SELL, but, leverage does liven up the game.
