Wednesday, June 2, 2010

NNVC - update

There are a couple ways to assess NNVC's recent price performance.  First, a deep retracement of the 200% run-up of the past six months.  Alternatively, you can look at the Sell (or Exit) signal on the daily trend on May 17 @ $2.03 and think, "Damn, maybe there is something to these Trend Models."

 NNVC Daily Trend Model w/EW Analysis

NNVC Weekly Trend Model w/EW Analysis


Note the positive spin inherent in both assessments.  Why?

Technically, both above charts are in major bullish trends.

Fundamentally, we have yesterday's news from the lab of Eva Harris,
....that its [NNVC] anti-Dengue drug candidates demonstrated significant efficacy in the recently completed preliminary cell culture studies. The studies were performed in the laboratory of Dr. Eva Harris, Professor of Infectious Diseases at the University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley).
This could be a prelude to potentially blockbuster news from follow-on animal studies on Dengue:
...dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome are emerging as serious global health problems. Dengue is endemic throughout much of the world and now threatens over 3 billion people world-wide or 40% of the world’s population. Because of its world-wide distribution, dengue is considered an emerging threat in the United States. Dengue is officially considered a “neglected tropical disease” by the World Health Organization.
This one product for NNVC could be worth a significant multiple of it's current market cap, not to mention the confirmation of their anti-viral platform that then will be focused on any number of viral plagues that face humanity.   In other words, the next news from the lab could very well be headlines news in every medical research facility in the world and all from this obscure little company that is not yet on the radar screen of most of the investment world.  When it gets there, expect NNVC's market cap to be measured in the Billions, not Millions, with share prices well above multiples of current levels.


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