Af/Pak Stabilization Strategery: The Missing Number

The Office of the Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan released its Af/Pak Regional Stabilization Strategy (January 2010) last week.  Briefly -- nearly 1,000 personnel on the ground by early 2010 and some 20-30% additional staffing after that.  I’ve dug up an OIG report from last year that talks about staff expansion of protective service in Afghanistan.  If the OIG number actually means 14 FSOs to each of the new consulates in Mazar and Herat plus 67 protective service personnel in each location – that amounts to almost 5 security contract personnel for every direct hire employee.  And we’re not even talking yet about the additional protective service and life support requirements for the 1,000+ surge personnel.

The $400 million indicated below as resource requirement is probably nowhere closed to the actual amount when personal protective service and life support services are taken into account.  Since we unavoidably are going to “surge” the contractors into Afghanistan – shouldn't we have those numbers?  Just because we can’t see them, doesn’t mean we’re not paying for them. 

By the way, you must see this numbers from Sam Stein about how the Top Defense Contractors Spent $27 Million Lobbying At Time Of Afghan Surge Announcement. Ugh!

Excerpt from Af/Pak Stabilization Strategy: PDF | HTML

Hundreds of civilian experts have answered that call to service, and we are now in the midst of the most significant deployment of U.S. civilian expertise to a war zone in decades. The increase, coordinated by the Office of the Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan and Deputy Secretary of State Jacob Lew, includes some of the top experts from 10 different U.S. government departments and agencies. Many have previous experience in Afghanistan or other conflict environments. U.S. civilian experts contribute to the mission in field, especially in the East and South where a majority of U.S. combat forces are operating and many of the additional 30,000 forces announced by President Obama will deploy. They partner with Afghans to enhance the capacity of national and sub-national government institutions, and to help rehabilitate Afghanistan’s key economic sectors. When their tours are complete, permanent civilian experts are encouraged to continue service on Afghanistan or Pakistan, in Washington or abroad, as well as to help in training their successors. Our goal is to create a cadre of civilian expertise on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Enhanced Civilian Presence: The vast majority of civilian experts deploy to Afghanistan for a minimum of one year. Under the first phase of this uplift, the civilian footprint in Afghanistan will triple from roughly 300 personnel on the ground in January 2009 to nearly 1,000 on the ground by early 2010. We anticipate further increasing our civilian staffing in 2010 by another 20 to 30 percent, concentrating experts in the field and at key ministries that deliver vital services to the Afghan people. Each U.S. civilian hires or works with an average of 10 Afghans and other implementing partner personnel. Additionally, civilians act as force multipliers for military personnel, helping build relationships with local community leaders and coordinate military civil affairs projects with civilian programs. Civilian personnel will remain deployed in significant numbers even after the security situation improves and our combat troops come home.

Expanded Presence in Ministries and Outside of Kabul: Responding to the Afghan government’s request for targeted technical assistance, we are placing more than 50 additional civilian advisors in core Afghan ministries. Outside of Kabul, we are deploying several hundred additional personnel to more than 50 locations. In addition to staffing PRTs, civilians are living and working alongside forward deployed military units in District Support Teams (DSTs). Civilians will also extend our permanent diplomatic presence outside of Kabul by staffing new consulates in Mazar-e-Sharif and Herat, which will serve as assistance platforms for the North and West and also symbolize our long-term, increasingly normal relationship with Afghanistan.

Resource Requirements

Resources available to meet requirements from FY 2010 and prior year appropriations: approximately $400 million.           

* * *

A publicly released OIG audit of USTC/Blackwater/Xe’s performance in Afghanistan in 2009 includes this item:

"The Department has decided to open consulates in the north of Afghanistan at Mazar-e-Sharif and in the west at Herat. According to Department cable 027341 of March 29, 2009, 14 Foreign Service Officers will be deployed to these locations in 2009. USTC has submitted a proposal to add 67 personnel to each location. The RSO in Kabul has reported that the security threat in Mazar-e-Sharif and Herat is considerably lower security than in Kabul."



This IG report was prepared last year; before rockets were fired on the new consulate site in western Afghanistan.  

Related Items:

-01/21/10 Af/Pak Regional Stabilization Strategy (January 2010) HTLM

-08/31/09   Performance Audit of the U.S. Training Center Contract for Personal Protective Services in Afghanistan (MERO-A-09-08) Aug 09

$250 Million to Counter Extremist Voices in Af/Pak Region

This one is extracted from the Office of the Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Af/Pak Regional Stabilization Strategy (January 2010) released last week:

The Taliban and al-Qaeda use information as a weapon, dominating the information space. While our previous strategy focused largely on traditional public diplomacy and communications tools, we are now elevating our communications efforts in importance and innovation. New programs will empower Afghans and Pakistanis to challenge the extremist narrative and offer their own vision for Afghanistan and Pakistan’s future. A sustained media and outreach strategy will set the record straight, highlight key civilian efforts, and explain our larger strategic rationale for the fight in Afghanistan, as well as our strategic support for Pakistan, to the Afghan and Pakistani peoples.

Key Initiatives

Expanded Media Outreach: We will respond more quickly to misinformation, serve as a source of credible information for journalists, conduct polls on key issues, and expand training of Afghan and Pakistani journalists in the United States. We will actively build our partnerships with all parts of Afghan and Pakistani society, including youth, civil society and nongovernmental organizations, and political actors and institutions at all levels.

Building Communications Capacity: Our support will help the Afghan and Pakistani governments communicate effectively with their people, and help people better communicate with one another. We will also leverage new technologies to support people with SMS services, mobile banking, telemedicine, and mobile micro-finance. And we will help build media infrastructure (radio, television, and cell towers) to carry communications into underserved areas dominated by extremist voices.  

• In Afghanistan, we are supporting the expansion of the Government Media Information Center in Kabul and an additional 16 provincial satellite offices. We will also enhance communications capabilities in core ministries by providing mentoring, public affairs training, and exchange opportunities for communications personnel. 
  
  

• In Pakistan we have helped launch Humari Awaz, Our Voice, the first mobile based social network empowering Pakistan’s 95 million mobile users with a voice. Our Voice mobile users harness mobile phones to instantly share news and information with a network of friends and followers via SMS messages. In five weeks, 20 million messages were sent and over 150,000 people enrolled, with an average of 3,000 new followers joining daily.

Taking Back the Airwaves: We are empowering indigenous voices to drown out extremist propaganda. We will expand local radio coverage and support creation of public, private and university radio stations. Using local partners, we will support distribution of content on all media, and use cell technology to help people build communities and get critical information.

Strengthening People to People Ties: Strengthening ties between all aspects of American, Afghan, and Pakistani society will deepen our long-term partnership. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, we are enhancing educational opportunities, including teacher training and English language training. Secretary Clinton’s three-day visit to Pakistan in October 2009, much of which was covered live on Pakistani television, underscored our new approach by engaging broad segments of Pakistani society in honest dialogue. This approach will be reinforced with a new public diplomacy and communications effort that will feature: greater engagement with Pakistani media; increased academic and business exchanges; and more robust outreach to the Pakistani-American community through the American Pakistan Foundation and similar organizations. We are also increasing professional, educational, and cultural exchanges.

Milestones

• 24-hour cell coverage is restored in areas of the South and East of Afghanistan. 
  
  

• Afghans and Pakistanis utilize radio and other media platforms to criticize extremists and hold government officials accountable. 
  
  

• Enemy propaganda is significantly decreased – in quantity and effectiveness – by July 2011. 
  
  

• The number of people-to-people exchanges is doubled by 2012. 
  
  

• U.S. disapproval ratings in Pakistan decrease, with Pakistanis’ increasingly convinced that the United States is committed to a long-term partnership on an array of issues, not just counterterrorism.

Resource Requirements

Resources available to meet requirements from FY 2010 and prior year appropriations: approximately $250 million.

BLT on Former Ambassador Robin Raphel

Image by america.gov via Flickr

The Blog of Legal Times has been tracking the news on lobbying disclosures concerning former Ambassador Robin Raphel who is a member of the team of Richard Holbrooke, the Special Representative to the Af/Pak region.  Ambassador Raphel is currently Senior Coordinator for Economic and Development Assistance.

From last week:

January 07, 2010 | State Department Official Lobbied by Former Employer

Robin Raphel, the State Department's nonmilitary aid coordinator for Pakistan and a former lobbyist for Pakistan, attended meetings to help that country craft lobbying strategy until shortly before her new position was announced last summer. Now, new lobbying disclosure reports show her former firm contacted her regarding Pakistan within a month after the announcement.



A filing submitted to the Justice Department this month by lobbying firm Cassidy & Associates reports that the firm, which has a $700,000-a-year contract to represent Pakistan, e-mailed Raphel on Sept. 2 regarding "ROZ legislation" - economic development legislation giving the president authority to establish “Reconstruction Opportunity Zones” (ROZs) in Pakistan’s frontier area with Afghanistan.

Continue reading this entry here.

From last November:

November 06, 2009 | State Department Official Worked on Behalf of Pakistan Immediately Before Taking Job

Newly filed lobbying disclosure documents show that Robin Raphel, the State Department's nonmilitary aid coordinator for Pakistan, attended meetings to help Pakistan craft lobbying strategy less than a week before her government appointment was publicly announced.



Raphel worked for lobbying firm Cassidy & Associates until July 31; her State Department job was announced Aug. 5. Cassidy has represented Pakistan since May. Cassidy’s latest disclosure filings, submitted to the Justice Department Oct. 30, show Raphel attended more than 40 meetings on Pakistan’s behalf in the two months before she left at places including the State Department, and Capitol Hill, though it doesn't specify who she met with.

Continue reading this entry here.

Robin L. Raphel is a career diplomat who served as Ambassador to Tunisia (1997-2000).  In August 1993, during the Clinton Administration she was named the first Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs (1993-1997). Her Wikipedia entry says she retired from the State Department in 2005 after 30 years of service.

Harassment of US Diplomats in Pakistan?

Jane Perletz and Eric Schmitt this week wrote on the reported harassment of U.S. diplomats in Pakistan (Pakistan Reported to Be Harassing U.S. Diplomats | NYT | December 16, 2009). Quick excerpts below:

Parts of the Pakistani military and intelligence services are mounting what American officials here describe as a campaign to harass American diplomats, fraying relations at a critical moment when the Obama administration is demanding more help to fight the Taliban and Al Qaeda.[…]The problems affected military attachés, C.I.A. officers, development experts, junior level diplomats and others, a senior American diplomat said. As a result, some American aid programs to Pakistan, which President Obama has called a critical ally, are “grinding to a halt,” the diplomat said.

American helicopters used by Pakistan to fight militants can no longer be serviced because visas for 14 American mechanics have not been approved, the diplomat said. Reimbursements to Pakistan of nearly $1 billion a year for counterterrorism have been suspended because the last of the American Embassy’s five accountants left the country this week after his visa expired.[…]At least 135 American diplomats have been refused extensions on their visas, the senior American diplomat said, leaving some sections of the embassy operating at 60 percent of capacity.

One of the most harmful consequences, the diplomat said, is the scaling back of helicopter missions by the Frontier Corps paramilitary troops fighting the Taliban because of a lack of trained American mechanics.

Read the whole thing here.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Diplomat: Pakistan holding up some US visas (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

David Ensor to US Embassy Kabul?

Via Al Kamen: “Word at the State Department is that David Ensor, longtime national security correspondent for CNN and more recently executive vice president for communications at Mercuria Energy Group in London, is being talked about to run the public affairs office at the embassy in Kabul.” (links added)

Huh? What? Hmmnn. Why?

Just a couple quick thoughts –

First, I think US Embassy Kabul’s PAS office has done a marvelous job over there. The post that needs help is the other half of Af/Pak, and it’s not Afghanistan. Public diplomacy efforts have taken a beating in Pakistan, and hope and help is probably needed there more than anywhere else.

Second, when was the last time you’ve heard of a non-career appointee run a public affairs shop at the embassy level?

Hmmn, let me see – how about Dan Senor, remember him? Probably most noted as chief spokesperson for the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq in the old days.

The CPA was not quite the embassy but close enough. The Bush II White House, after all called Senor “Advisor to the U.S. Presidential Envoy in Iraq” (that is, Presidential Envoy L. Paul Bremer III, Administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority).

I've watched Ensor on CNN; I remember him as telegenic; don't know his politics. Before joining CNN, he served as ABC News' diplomatic correspondent from 1995-1998.Still -- I hope no one is trying to replicate the CPA’s “Green Room” in Baghdad at the US Embassy in Kabul …

Will the Afghanistan Civilian Surge Go Super Surge?

It looks like the much touted 974 figure is just a “down-payment” to the “total” civilian surge to Afghanistan. SRAP deputy Paul Jones is now talking about more civilian advisers to Afghanistan beyond the 974 expected to get there in early 2010. Ambassador Holbrooke’s deputy was over at the American Enterprise Institute yesterday and had this to say:

The President will soon request from Congress the resources needed to implement this focused civilian effort. His request will include not only a sizable increase in civilian assistance, but also funds to support deployment of additional civilian experts beyond the roughly 1,000 U.S. government civilians who will be on the ground by early next year. These civilians will help build Afghan governance and private sector capacity. In the field, they will work from District Support Teams and PRTs, side by side with our military. Some will also extend our permanent diplomatic presence outside of Kabul by staffing new consulates in Mazar-e-Sharif and Herat.We are now in the midst of the civilian surge. I spoke last Thursday at the Foreign Service Institute with a class of 90 experts from USAID, USDA and State who will be deploying before Christmas; the next such class is in two weeks, so our tempo is quick. On Friday, I met with a packed room of Foreign Service Officers looking to sign-up for tours in 2010 and beyond. Next week, I’ll travel to Camp Atterbury, Indiana, where every civilian deploying to the field undergoes a week-long, realistic, intensive field exercise with our military counterparts.Secretary Clinton is proud of noting that among these civilians are our top experts from 10 different U.S. government departments and agencies. And once deployed, they report to our Embassy in Kabul through a unified civilian chain of command, with senior civilian representatives at every civ-mil platform. In short, our selection, training and leadership is better than ever before. The result is improved civ-mil coordination at all levels of our effort in Afghanistan, and gives us the civilian expertise out in key districts that will allow our locally-focused strategy to succeed. Admiral Mullen attested to the quality of the civilians during his appearance before the Congress last Thursday.

See Mr. Jones’ full remarks at the AEI here.

Although we now know that there are 10 participating agencies, we still do not have a breakdown of which agencies are going to Afghanistan, and how many staff they are contributing to this effort. We also still do not have the breakdown sector-wide of these civilian experts.

And – some of you may know this, but I still have no idea where the larger part of the 974 are coming from. See my previous post 974 to Afghanistan for the Civilian Surge. Or where are they going to get the “beyond” 1,000 civilian experts now planned.

I also almost forgot to mention – this OIG report from August 2009 indicates that there are “nearly four life support and personal security contractors to every one U.S. Government staff member at these Regional Embassy Offices and Regional Reconstruction Team.” That report was on the regional embassy staffing in Iraq. Note that Mr. Jones above has the “District Support Teams and PRTs” in Afghanistan --different name but I suspect, functionally similar to REOs in Iraq.

Afghanistan is in a far worse state than Iraq, of course, but if we go by the Iraq calculation rounded down, that 974 civilian surge number actually means additional life support and personal security personnel of 2,922 or a total surge of 3,896 individuals (life support and protective services normally handled by contractors).

On a related note, Laura Rozen of Politico has posted a December 5 memo from retired General Barry R McCaffrey, who is now adjunct professor of International Affairs at West Point. The memo “provides a strategic and operational assessment of security operations in Afghanistan.” In it the general says that the “civilian agency surge will essentially not happen” – see below:

“The international civilian agency surge will essentially not happen ---although State Department officers, US AID, CIA, DEA, and the FBI will make vital contributions. Afghanistan over the next 2-3 years will be simply too dangerous for most civil agencies.”

A bunch of folks would have something to say about that from Foggy Bottom to Pennsylvania Avenue.

Peter Bergen’s Ultimate AfPak Reading List

USAID Photo

Peter Bergen has put together a guide to the most critical readings on Afghanistan and Pakistan. He writes that this is an amalgamation of syllabi from classes he has taught at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. The list includes books and articles that he says he found particularly insightful on the topic from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to al Qaeda's media strategy.

Bergen is a senior fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington D.C. where he co-directs the Counterterrorism Strategy Initiative; a research fellow at New York University's Center on Law and Security and CNN's national security analyst. He is also the editor of Foreign Policy’s AfPak Channel.

Check out his Ultimate AfPak Reading List. The list also is available for download in Word document here. I have appended a second list to the downloadable material -- George Packer's AfPak list that came along with his piece on Richard Holbrooke in the New Yorker.

Download: Ultimate AfPak Reading List (Word docx format).

Civilian Uplift for Afghanistan on Track?

Image by boliston via Flickr

On September 20 Jackie Northam of NPR reports about a snag in the civilian surge to Afghanistan (NPR | 'Civilian Surge' Plan For Afghanistan Hits A Snag). Excerpts below:

"The administration is expected to increase the deployment of American government civilian workers — experts who can help rebuild the country. But there are problems persuading civilians with the requisite skills to go to Afghanistan. […] it would send about 450 civilians from several branches of the government by March 2010. The timetable was then accelerated to December of this year. But so far, only about a quarter of that number have been deployed to Afghanistan."

Jack Lew, the Under Secretary for Management and Resources at the State Department is quoted in the NPR report:

"We have to remember that decisions were made in the spring, funds were appropriated in July, programming is being implemented, you know, August/September," says Jacob Lew. "We're just now seeing the program go into place."

"Lew says the administration expects to reach its target numbers by the beginning of next year. Other State Department officials, and analysts, say that's optimistic — because it's difficult to find enough people who have the right skills and who are willing to stay in Afghanistan for a yearlong deployment."

The NPR report recalls that the State Department in 2004 created a "Civilian Response Corps," in which civilians would go on short deployments into conflict zones. Apparently, the corps only received funding last year. So okay, five years after it was launched by Secretary Rice, it expects to build a corps of more than 4,000 active, standby and reserve members. Ambassador John Herbst, the coordinator of S/CRS says in the report that there are about 50 active members who are ready to be sent to Afghanistan. “Obviously, the numbers I'm describing right now are not going to make a major contribution to Afghanistan," he says. "But in six months, you know, we might be in a position where we could, if there was a need, put a hundred or more people on the ground."

John Dempsey of United States Institute of Peace who has been in Kabul for several years is also quoted in the report:

"Security is such that it's so difficult for people to actually be able to move off of forward operating bases and get out into the field to actually meet with Afghans and do their work," he says. "They don't have the adequate logistical or security support to do that."

* * *

Is this really surprising news? The S/CRS did not get half a fuel tank to go anywhere the last four years (but the official launch was a nice ceremony). Makes one wonder how much workforce planning even really occurred within this Bureau or the government to sustain a civilian surge anywhere. Of course, you start down this path and you get to wonder about a whole lot of things, too. U/S Lew is not in the most enviable position and he may be wrestling with this issue until winter ... or next summer.... and every summer thereafter until at least 2012.

How many people already sent to Iraq for multiple tours are also going to Afghanistan for this no-end in sight mission?

How many in the Federal service, outside of State and AID already have the skill sets needed for this mission? How many inside State and USAID?

At which point are we going to hear "directed assignment" for FS personnel?

With funds/programming implemented just this past couple of months, how many 3161 personnel are we picking up for this? How many contractors are we picking up eventually? How fast can we recruit and train skilled personnel going to Afghanistan (or Pakistan)?

With security contractors gracing the news every single day in September, what do you do with private protective service for all reconstruction and support personnel in country?With 450 personnel planned, how many life-support personnel are expected to be hired with them? If I remember correctly, the OIG talked about three life support personnel for every direct-hire employee in an REO in Iraq. This is, of course, Afghanistan with more intractable challenges. But even using the Iraq figure, this would still translate to an additional number of 1,350 life-support personnel or a total staffing of 1800 for this uplift alone. And when the first 450 personnel completes their one-year tour, where do you find the next 450 to take over their place? And on and on and on it goes ....

AfPak Channel Launches: Covering Afghanistan

Foreign Policy and New America Foundation launched The AfPak Channel at the Foundation’s digs in DC yesterday. Video below of the panel on "Covering Afghanistan."

Speakers include:Steve Coll: New America Foundation President Rajiv Chandrasekaran: The Washington Post's Afghanistan Correspondent Peter Bergen: AfPak Channel Editor Karen DeYoung: Moderator (The Washington Post) Susan Glasser: Introductions (Foreign Policy)

The AfPak blog is here.

Amb. Ryan Crocker writes about Iraq, Afghanistan

September 6, 2007 - Ramadi, Anbar Province, IraqAmbassador Crocker (center) introduces Senators Joseph Biden (right)and Blanch Lincoln (left) to Iraq Vice President Abdul-Mahdi (far right)shortly before the economic governance forum.

In the September 14 issue of Newsweek, published online on September 5, Ambassador Ryan Crocker writes “Eight Years On: A diplomat's perspective on the post-9/11 world.” The online piece also includes a 4:00 min video clip of the ambassador. I remember thinking as I read through the piece that there is a book or two here, for sure.

He talks about 9/11 and how the war on terror did not really start for us on 9/11, but 18 years earlier. On the Middle East he writes:

"The Middle East is a region that knows it cannot keep determined superpowers out. For hundreds of years, whether the French or British, the Russians or the Americans, they've muscled their way in. But while countries in the region don't have that hard left cross at their disposal to block outsiders, they've got a wicked counterpunch. Once you're in, then they go to work."

About that “Perfect Storm Memo:”

"Along with many others at the State Department, I supported the interagency studies of the Future of Iraq Project. I thought I'd learned some lessons in Kabul that might be relevant. Toward the end of the year, the Office of Iraqi Affairs, which I supervised, made an effort simply to lay out for policymakers some of the things that might happen if we intervened militarily in Iraq. Sometimes called "The Perfect Storm Memo," it's still a classified document, so I'm not in a position to go through its content in any detail. But in any case it had no operational traction."

He describes re-opening our US Embassy in Kabul

"The embassy—almost miraculously—was more or less intact. Some rockets had hit it. A lot of windows had been blown out. A small fire had done some damage, but that was all. For a dozen years the building had been empty, yet our Afghan local staff had never left their jobs. The gardeners continued to garden; the mechanics and the drivers maintained the vehicles; and the staff kept up a continuous presence that prevented the Taliban and others from entering the compound. Several were arrested for being "stooges of the Americans." They could have been killed. But they soldiered on for those dozen years. I think I can say they were deeply happy to see us return."

He also talks about Iran, Pakistan, and of course, Iraq. With this piece, Ambassador Crocker writes a public reminder … that “success only comes from a solid, sustained commitment of resources and attention.” It is also a warning as public support for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan appears to be waning:

"The perceived arrogance and ignorance of overbearing powers can create new narratives of humiliation that will feed calls for vengeance centuries from now. What's needed in dealing with this world is a combination of understanding, persistence, and strategic patience to a degree that Americans, traditionally, have found hard to muster."

Read the whole thing here. I think this is his first publication since retiring from the Foreign Service; and I’m almost sure, this won’t be his last.

Owlers: "Particularly Qualified" Letters Sent to Diplomats

Image via Wikipedia

Last week, President Obama signed the Presidential Memorandum on Federal Benefits and Non-Discrimination, followed by Secretary Clinton’s statement on the granting of benefits to same-sex partners of Foreign Service employees. H.R. 2346 (which grants overseas comparability pay to Foreign Service employees class 1 or below) also cleared Congress late last week and just awaiting the President’s signature …

In related news that might just be as interesting …

I understand that the owl mail started hitting workstations last week. I received a tip that Career Development Officers (CDOs) have sent out DG-drafted letters late last week to Foreign Service officers deemed “particularly qualified” for service in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

One officer who received the targeted recruitment letter was quite surprised. Why? Well, because the job this officer was targeted for requires a specific language proficiency (which this FSO does not have) and reporting on economic conditions (FSO had no previous experience in the country nor in writing economic reports). The last time we’ve seen similar letters was about two years ago when State was staffing the diplomatic surge in Iraq, and diplomats were under threat of being sent on directed assignments.


The letter was received via unclassified email with no other restriction; it says in part:

[...]I am writing to inform you that the Department considers you among those particularly well qualified for the following XX positions and is asking you to seriously consider volunteering for an opportunity to tackle one of our nation’s top foreign policy priorities by bidding on:

XXXX (Country)(Post) XXX XXXX

[...] You are considered well qualified because your record of achievement indicates that you have the knowledge, skills and experience, as defined by the Embassy, to be successful in these positions.[...]

The targeted recruitment letter says that the goal is 100% volunteer but it includes a short blurb -- if positions remained unfilled, the recipient would be in a pool of qualified individuals potentially subject to identification. Identification for a directed assignment, that is, although those two words are not found anywhere in the letter.


I don't know if anyone should really be surprised by this. The military is expected to draw down soon in Iraq but there is no corresponding expectation for the draw down of US diplomatic presence there. So even as the State Department ramps up its diplomatic surge in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the demand for FS personnel in Iraq will not abate.


As an aside -- I am presuming that the push is still there to staff these critical posts first before all other mission staffing will be considered. So now -- you have the Iraq tax, and the Af/Pak tax. Personnel destined for assignments to other missions now have also reportedly either curtailed or have changed assignments to go to Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan this summer. Which is good, except that the losing posts won't necessarily find replacements for those personnel even with projected increased hiring this summer/fall. I am told that in a couple of posts, an FSO is quad-hatted (is that the term?) working as the human resource officer, financial management officer, and general services officer in addition to his/her full-time job.


This is of course, for next year's assignment cycle. But would volunteers continue to step up year after year? We're on Year 6 going on 7 in Iraq, plus Year 1 going on 4, at least in Af/Pak (under new policy). I'm not sure how long you can keep recycling the same volunteers (who are language qualified or with reporting or stabilization experience) into the war zones or into critical post. Aren't there folks doing their third tour in Iraq? (I should note that the most recent DCM coming out of Iraq is tapped for Sri Lanka; and the most recent DCM coming out of Kabul is going to Kosovo).

In the big hullabaloo back in 2007, the outgoing Director General, Harry Thomas was quoted by TWP as saying that in the future, "everyone in the Foreign Service is going to have to do one out of three tours in a hardship post." Those who have not served in hardship assignments in the past will not be punished, but they all have to realize that there are "different conditions" now than in the past, he said.

If what he said holds true, that'll be 3 years every 9 years spent in a hardship post. The problem with that calculation is from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, the number of hardship posts seems to be expanding year after year.

Richard Holbrooke with POTUS

What did you say?

Source: White House/Flickr

Above is an official White House photo taken by Pete Souza. It shows President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, right, and Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke, in the Oval Office during a briefing prior to meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai on May 6, 2009.


Update (revised post): A blog friend cautions against reading too much into this picture. Without knowing what happened there, we can assume too much and read more tea leaves into this scene than necessary, including Hillary's absence. It is also true that this is only one instant, a moment in time when the three were caught together in Pete Souza's viewfinder. I did look back at the SoS appointment that day. That morning, she had bilateral meetings with Hamid Karzai then Pakistan's Asif Ali Zardari. Afterwards she led the US-Afghanistan-Pakistan Trilateral Consultations II, in the Benjamin Franklin Room.


The larger photo is better, see it here.

What’s next - a diplomatic surge for Pakistan?

During his testimony at the HFAC on May 5, Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke said that “Our assistance should support Pakistani efforts to “hold and build” in western Pakistan as part of its counterinsurgency efforts so extremists do not return to fill the vacuum once military operations have ended. We must also do our part to enhance bilateral and regional trade possibilities by implementing Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) and encouraging foreign investment in vital sectors, such as energy. The Administration supports Congressional passage of ROZ legislation as a key way to boost private investment and sustainable economic development in targeted areas of Afghanistan and border areas of Pakistan."

He repeated the same thing at his testimony at the SFRC yesterday. Are you thinking what I’m thinking? Reconstruction Opportunity Zones. What’s next - a diplomatic surge for Pakistan?

Related Items:

HFAC Hearing – Richard Holbrooke’s Testimony │ May 5, 2009

SFRC Hearing – Richard Holbrooke’s Testimony │ May 12, 2009

Holbrooke on the Pak Side of Af/Pak

Today, Wednesday, April 29,This has been moved to Tuesday, May 05, 2009, 12:00 PM. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard C. Holbrooke will be at the Rayburn House answering questions from the full House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC) members. HFAC chairman, Howard L. Berman (D-CA) is holding an open hearing on the Pak side of Af/Pak -- From Strategy to Implementation: The Future of the U.S.-Pakistan Relationship.

Tomorrow, April 30, Ambassador Holbrooke will be at the Dirksen Senate Building to testify at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC). Senator John Kerry is also holding a hearing on the Pak part of Af/Pak -- US Strategy Toward Pakistan. (Update 4/29 @ 8:50 pm: It seems only a matter of time; this one has also been postponed. Will update when this is rescheduled).

You know CSPAN will be covering it as well as a few more media outlets because like Strobe Talbott says, he’s “the diplomatic equivalent of a hydrogen bomb,” okay? And speaking of Holbrooke -- In the Loop’s Al Kamen has written earlier this week about Holbrooke’s Growing Orbit.

I will not repeat the joke that has migrated from the Balkans to Foggy Bottom , but Holbrooke is reported to “have announced to a meeting of career Foreign Service folks in the South and Central Asia bureau (SCA) that they were now working for him, something that stunned more than a few of them.”

If true, boy oh boy -- does that mean the incoming Assistant Secretary for SCA, Ambassador Robert Blake, also works for him? Hmmn….hmmnnn..


Ambassador Blake has just been announced as the Assistant Secretary nominee for the SCA bureau. If you look at this map, you’ll see that Af/Pak runs right at the center of the South Central Asian region, and some have pointed out that without Afghanistan and Pakistan, the SCA bureau has a shrunken domain. Even then, I thought, well, at least SCA still has India and Kazakhstan, two of the largest countries in the region with their own sets of challenges. But now … one wonders.


It would be interesting to hear how Ambassador Blake sees his role in the big picture; after all he’ll be the one facing a confirmation hearing, not the special envoy. Blake’s nomination has been sent to the Senate and is currently pending at the SFRC (15 nominations in the queue ahead of him at the moment).

I did say back in February that I could not imagine the org boxes to stay the same with Ambassador Holbrooke on the scene. I’m sure there will be more on this later…

Related Post:

• Officially In: Ambassador Robert Blake to the SCA Bureau
• Richard Holbrooke: Our Af/Pak Man and Diplomatic H-bomb
• HRC on Special Representative Holbrooke's Role in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Related Item:
Matthew Kaminski: Holbrooke of South Asia

FY09 Supplemental Request: Expanded Embassies in Af/Pak

(Source: Published OIG Report ISP-I-06-13A, Jan.18.2006 - State Department)

The White House recently sent to the Congress a supplemental appropriations request totaling $83.4 billion that will fund our ongoing military, diplomatic, and intelligence operations. The State details are excerpted below. Read the whole thing here.

Congress will review the request in the coming weeks and the Speaker said it "will engage in a dialogue with the Administration on appropriate benchmarks to measure the success of our investments." Remains to be seen what makes it through Congress. But it looks like from these numbers that a larger personnel “surge” should be expected not just for Afghanistan but also for all posts in Pakistan. It is hard to imagine that Congress would withhold funds for Afghanistan this time after years of shoveling funds into Iraq. And since Af is tied to Pak in more ways than one, well, you get the picture ...

For an additional amount for "Diplomatic and Consular Programs", $594,315,000, to remain available until September 30, 2010, of which $117,983,000 is for worldwide security protection and shall remain available until expended: Provided, That the Secretary of State may transfer up to $137,600,000 of the total funds made available under this heading to any other appropriation of any department or agency of the United States, upon the concurrence of the head of such department or agency, to support operations in and assistance for Afghanistan and to carry out the provisions of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961.

This proposal would provide $594.3 million for Diplomatic and Consular Programs as follows: $150 million for the U.S. Mission in Iraq to meet the increased costs of security and operations; $363 million for the U.S. Mission in Afghanistan for increased staffing levels, support operations, and security programs throughout the provinces and in Kabul; $52.9 million for operating and security costs for the U.S. mission in Pakistan; and $28.4 million to support additional counterterrorism and diplomatic operating costs for the Department of State.

Funds for SIGAR:

For an additional amount for "Office of Inspector General", $7,201,000, to remain available until September 30, 2010, which shall be transferred to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction for reconstruction oversight. This proposal would provide $7.2 million to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) to support SIGAR's authorized responsibilities.

Funds for Embassy Security, Construction, and Maintenance

For an additional amount for "Embassy Security, Construction, and Maintenance", $898,728,000, to remain available until expended, for worldwide security upgrades, acquisition, and construction as authorized.

This proposal would provide a total of $898.7 million for Embassy Security, Construction, and Maintenance. Of this amount, $893.2 million is provided to meet secure diplomatic facility and housing needs for U.S. Mission staff in Afghanistan and Pakistan, including $87.0 million to acquire additional property to support expanded diplomatic facilities in Kabul, Afghanistan; and $806.2 million to construct new secure and safe facilities in Pakistan, including construction of a new U.S. embassy building in Islamabad and other secure diplomatic facility needs in Pakistan.

Of the $806.2 million for Pakistan, $736.5 million would fund a major upgrade of facilities in Islamabad to meet security and building infrastructure needs. This includes: $111 million for the construction in Islamabad of a new annex to accommodate approximately 330 personnel; $405 million for the renovation or replacement of the existing chancery to accommodate approximately 645 personnel; $108 million for permanent New Embassy Compound (NEC) housing (156 units); $112.5 million for construction of U.S. Marine Corps security guard quarters, and general office facilities.

In addition, $29.6 million would support site acquisition for future construction of new consulate facilities in Lahore, and $40.1 million would support diplomatic facilities in Peshawar.

This request would also provide $5.5 million to deploy mobile mail screening units to protect U.S. Government employees at various high risk facilities. Approximately 73 mail screening units will be deployed to posts worldwide based on threat level (as determined by the Department of State's Bureau of Diplomatic Security). This is an unanticipated need based upon security threats directed at many individual embassies and consulates worldwide.