Friday, April 30, 2010
NNVC - Elliott Wave update
There is a lot in the chart below, maybe too much, but I have been using these tools since 1994 and they are about 75% accurate, so there is a three out of four chance that the implications for future price movement are on the mark. The trend models are even more accurate, but are more of a lagging indicator then this EW analysis, which is more prospective. Between the two tools, there is a high confidence suggestion of much higher prices to come, once the trend model joins in.
NNVC: EW Analysis & Daily Trend Model
This set up is referred to in Advanced GET as a Mechanical Buy Signal. Its termed mechanical because although it uses subjective underlying themes, they are applied in a purely objective model, i.e. if X and Y, then Z.
(1) Elliott Wave Count - three waves up & one wave down (as a Wave 4);
(2) Buy signal on the False Bar Stochastic;
(3) Decline in the Elliott Oscillator to the zero line;
(4) Wave 4 retracement to a key Fibonacci level;
(5) Prices break out of Regression Trend Channel (Wave 4 break-out).
Add to the above, a Daily Trend Model Buy signal will occur on a close today above $2.36. This paints a compelling picture that Wave 5 has begun, with an initial target of $3.25-$4.00.
I should preface all of this with a, "probably" since all of the above is based on probability theory, the wave counts, the mechanical signals, the trend models, even the Wave 5 targets. There are no guarantees, no perfection, no done deals. Just a mountain of probabilities that NNVC is headed up to the $3-4 range in the coming weeks. To start the run off, we need a close today above $2.36, that in my opinion would be the icing on the cake...........carrot cake with cream cheese frosting.
A
GLD
I wrote to my subscribers last night about GLD; that it is on a fresh Buy on the Daily chart and is in Buy Pending mode on the Weekly chart. That longer-term Weekly Buy should be confirmed by today's close. Below is a GLD 240 minute chart:
The most recent Buy on the chart came on April 20th at 111.93. With GLD up above 115 today, that is about a 3% rise from inception of the trade. Taking a look at the option tables, a 3% rise in near-term at the money calls translates into a pro-forma rise in the option of well over 100%, i.e. from about $2.07 to between $4.00 and $4.85:
That's a healthy return for a ten-day period. But it has to be, as the trade has to make up for the previous whipsaw, where I suspect a loss on the option would be about 30%. Adding it all up, assuming that for any given two trades there is a 30% loss followed by a 100% gain, at the end of the year you are addicted to the trend models.
A lot of assumptions here, including pro-forma and/or hypothetical analysis. But the underlying trading paradigm is not assumed, it is real and based on this rear-view mirror option analysis, is a viable strategy going forward. Daily and Weekly models offer similar opportunity and I'll eventually get around to posting this same kind of analysis for those time frames.
A
The most recent Buy on the chart came on April 20th at 111.93. With GLD up above 115 today, that is about a 3% rise from inception of the trade. Taking a look at the option tables, a 3% rise in near-term at the money calls translates into a pro-forma rise in the option of well over 100%, i.e. from about $2.07 to between $4.00 and $4.85:
That's a healthy return for a ten-day period. But it has to be, as the trade has to make up for the previous whipsaw, where I suspect a loss on the option would be about 30%. Adding it all up, assuming that for any given two trades there is a 30% loss followed by a 100% gain, at the end of the year you are addicted to the trend models.
A lot of assumptions here, including pro-forma and/or hypothetical analysis. But the underlying trading paradigm is not assumed, it is real and based on this rear-view mirror option analysis, is a viable strategy going forward. Daily and Weekly models offer similar opportunity and I'll eventually get around to posting this same kind of analysis for those time frames.
A
Should Doctors ‘Prescribe’ a Drink a Day? No.
From the NYTimes:
References:
The evidence regarding wine versus other beverages like grape juice is mixed.For most people, low-risk drinking is not harmful to health — and may be helpful. However, I would discourage people from drinking in order to improve their health.
Compared with non-drinkers, men who consumed wine, beer, or spirits had a 36% lower risk of all-cause mortality and a 34% lower risk of cardiovascular mortality.
Before you recommend wine for cardiovascular risk reduction, consider this:
- One in five men at risk of drinking problem during their lifetimes
- Women have an 8 to 10 percent chance of becoming dependent on alcohol during their lifetimes
- Men have 15% lifetime risk for alcohol abuse, 10% risk for alcohol dependence. Each cuts your life short by 10-15 years.
- Heavy drinking increases risk of depression by 40%, and 80% of people dependent on alcohol are smokers
References:
Should Doctors ‘Prescribe’ a Drink a Day? NYtimes, 2010.
Before you recommend wine for CV risk reduction, consider this: 1 in 5 men at risk of drinking problem
Image source: Wikipedia, public domain.
Image source: Wikipedia, public domain.
Children's Math Book Reviews
With a sick student (or two) we've been doing a lot of reading. What incredible affirmation as to the power of math combined with literature! Little Student made connection after connection. So on our "no school" day, we learned a TON. (Or is that 2000 lbs?) Here are our top picks:
My opinion about The Wishing Club; a Story About Fractions by Donna Jo Napoli, totally changed. When I read it alone, I wasn't terribly excited. When I read it to my student, his enthusiasm was catching. In the book, siblings, ages 8, 8, (twins), 4, and 2, wish on a star. Over several nights they discover that their wishes are granted in fractions, determined by their ages: 8yos get 1/8, 4yo gets 1/4, 2yo gets 1/2. My student quickly understood the concept of fractions, exclaiming after the second page (which shows four 1/4ths make 1), "then one penny is 1/5th of a nickel!" In the story, the siblings put their wishes together to make one whole wish and get the wish that all of them want. [Concept: fractions]
My current student and I have not talked much about probability. The book, A Very Improbable Story, by Edward Einhorn, proved to be very effective when introducing the topic. Ethan, the main character, wakes up to find a cat, "Odds," attached to his head. An improbable event, indeed! He can only remove the cat if he is able to win in a game of probability. Several games are played and the odds of winning are thoroughly discussed in each scenario. By the end of the book, my student talked about the odds of Ethan winning or not winning the games. He also got a good laugh at the question at the book's end...what's the probability that you will open the book to a page with a picture? (Odds: 32 in 32 or 100% chance.) [Concept: probability]
In Equal Shmequal by Virginia Kroll, some animals witness children playing a game of tug-o-war and set out to play their own game. It quickly becomes obvious, however, that they have a problem making the sides "equal" with five animals competing. But even when the sides have equal numbers, the groups still aren't fair because the weights aren't equal. They set about figuring out how the animals' weight can be evenly distributed by balancing on a park teeter-totter. But when the bear is distracted by honey, they learn that equal effort is also important. Super cute. [Concept: equality]
The Candy Corn Contest by Patricia Reilly Giff is part of "The Kids of Polk Street School" series, chapter books for young readers. This book has a reading level (R.L.) of 1.9 (first grade, ninth month). I read it aloud to my sick 7yo. The story captivated him and he would read ahead over my shoulder and then hide his eyes because he was nervous about the events.
The main character, Richard, would like to guess the number of candy corns in the Thanksgiving class contest. Problem is, each guess is earned by reading a page in a book and Richard is not a good reader. Left alone with the candy jar, temptation becomes too much and he secretly eats several candies. Then what is he to do? He learns the teacher has written the number of candies on the bottom of the jar. Should he change the number? When the class ultimately shares the candies, the reader can think about division. [Concept: estimation, briefly division] Easy reader chapter book.
365 Penguins by Jean-Luc Fromental is an oversized picture book that provides many opportunities for problem solving. Each day, beginning January 1st, a single penguin is delivered to this family's home. After two months they have 31+28 penguins. Then they organize them into 4 groups of 15. But yikes! What about the food? They eat 2.5 lbs of fish/day at $3/lb. By the 100th penguin, it's getting expensive. They decide to arrange the penguins like eggs, in dozens. 12 boxes of 12 penguins. Later, they're stored in a cube shape = 6x6x6. By Dec. 31st, they have 365 guests. At last, Uncle Victor, the ecologist, arrives to transport the penguins. But, on January 1st, another BIG box arrives. Uh oh! [Concept: problem solving]
My opinion about The Wishing Club; a Story About Fractions by Donna Jo Napoli, totally changed. When I read it alone, I wasn't terribly excited. When I read it to my student, his enthusiasm was catching. In the book, siblings, ages 8, 8, (twins), 4, and 2, wish on a star. Over several nights they discover that their wishes are granted in fractions, determined by their ages: 8yos get 1/8, 4yo gets 1/4, 2yo gets 1/2. My student quickly understood the concept of fractions, exclaiming after the second page (which shows four 1/4ths make 1), "then one penny is 1/5th of a nickel!" In the story, the siblings put their wishes together to make one whole wish and get the wish that all of them want. [Concept: fractions]
My current student and I have not talked much about probability. The book, A Very Improbable Story, by Edward Einhorn, proved to be very effective when introducing the topic. Ethan, the main character, wakes up to find a cat, "Odds," attached to his head. An improbable event, indeed! He can only remove the cat if he is able to win in a game of probability. Several games are played and the odds of winning are thoroughly discussed in each scenario. By the end of the book, my student talked about the odds of Ethan winning or not winning the games. He also got a good laugh at the question at the book's end...what's the probability that you will open the book to a page with a picture? (Odds: 32 in 32 or 100% chance.) [Concept: probability]
In Equal Shmequal by Virginia Kroll, some animals witness children playing a game of tug-o-war and set out to play their own game. It quickly becomes obvious, however, that they have a problem making the sides "equal" with five animals competing. But even when the sides have equal numbers, the groups still aren't fair because the weights aren't equal. They set about figuring out how the animals' weight can be evenly distributed by balancing on a park teeter-totter. But when the bear is distracted by honey, they learn that equal effort is also important. Super cute. [Concept: equality]
The Candy Corn Contest by Patricia Reilly Giff is part of "The Kids of Polk Street School" series, chapter books for young readers. This book has a reading level (R.L.) of 1.9 (first grade, ninth month). I read it aloud to my sick 7yo. The story captivated him and he would read ahead over my shoulder and then hide his eyes because he was nervous about the events.
The main character, Richard, would like to guess the number of candy corns in the Thanksgiving class contest. Problem is, each guess is earned by reading a page in a book and Richard is not a good reader. Left alone with the candy jar, temptation becomes too much and he secretly eats several candies. Then what is he to do? He learns the teacher has written the number of candies on the bottom of the jar. Should he change the number? When the class ultimately shares the candies, the reader can think about division. [Concept: estimation, briefly division] Easy reader chapter book.
365 Penguins by Jean-Luc Fromental is an oversized picture book that provides many opportunities for problem solving. Each day, beginning January 1st, a single penguin is delivered to this family's home. After two months they have 31+28 penguins. Then they organize them into 4 groups of 15. But yikes! What about the food? They eat 2.5 lbs of fish/day at $3/lb. By the 100th penguin, it's getting expensive. They decide to arrange the penguins like eggs, in dozens. 12 boxes of 12 penguins. Later, they're stored in a cube shape = 6x6x6. By Dec. 31st, they have 365 guests. At last, Uncle Victor, the ecologist, arrives to transport the penguins. But, on January 1st, another BIG box arrives. Uh oh! [Concept: problem solving]
at
12:01 AM
Labels:
Children's Books-Math,
Equality,
Estimation,
Fractions,
Holidays,
Probability,
Problem Solving
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Blogmania - Giveaways Galore - One Day Only
WELCOME To BLOGMANIA ! - GIVEAWAY CLOSED
My Blog is 90 of 123
You’ve arrived at exactly the right time to explore lots of new blogs, all of which, ARE GIVING AWAY A VERY SPECIAL BLOGMANIA GIVEAWAY(For One Day Only – April 30th).
We’ve done all the work for you. No hunting or surfing. Each blog will have a number and each new blog link will have a number. These numbers will allow you to keep track of which blogs you’ve visited and how many are left to visit. Why not take a moment to make a list of blog numbers 1-123 and check off the blogs as you go.
I know you’ll want to visit as many blogs today as you can. So, if you see something that interests you on any of our participating blogs, why not bookmark that site. Later, when you have more time, you can discover all its fabulous treasures. There are links to other participating blogs below my giveaway.
CLICK! CLICK! CLICK!
MY GIVEAWAY and RULES:
Since I can't afford to ship to giveaway winners myself, I asked two of my favourite publishers if they could donate some books for giveaways and they said SURE!
To make sure this post doesn't get too long, you'll have to click through to the publisher's site to see more info about the books but be sure to come back and enter!
First up is from Tundra Books. I have 3 copies of Talking Tails by Ann Love and Jane Drake and 3 copies of Cyclist Bikelist by Laura Robinson up for grabs to a US/Canada resident. They are both children's nonfiction - perfect for this blog as I focus on nonfiction (for children, teens and adults) and children's (picture books to YA) reviews. That's a total of 6 lucky winners!
Talking Tails is a book for 9-12 year olds about the connection between people and pets.
Cyclist Bikelist is a book for 9+ with history of cycling, useful and fun info and how to select and maintain a bike.
Next up is from Annick Press. It's 6 books in 3. Each book is two sided with two stories in it. All three books, which are the first in the Single Voice series will be going to one lucky US/Canada winner.
Just Julie/I Am Not Emmanuelle by Nadia Xerra-L and Carine Tardeiu
Descent into Paradise/A Place to Live by Vincent Karle and Jean-Phillipe Blondel
Nothing But Your Skin/The Pool Was Empty by Cathy Ytak and Gilles Abier
You'll have to click through for summaries but they are YA stories (14+) and are fiction and the stories are provocative.
To Enter any of the giveaways, you'll have to fill in my form. Make sure you specify which giveaways you are entering. You can enter for all three (Talking Tails, Cyclist Bikelist and Single Voice Series)
I'm not requiring you follow me on Google friend connect but I'd love it if you would!
GIVEAWAY CLOSED
If you have the time, a few bloggers are reviewing the books in the series today.
Just Julie: http://classicvasilly.wordpress.com, I Am Not Emmanuelle: http://cindysloveofbooks.blogspot.com, Descent into Paradise : http://www.greenbeanteenqueen.com, A Place to Live: http://thebookmuncher.blogspot.com, Nothing but Your Skin: http://upthetowerofbooks.blogspot.com/, The Pool Was Empty: http://heyteenager.blogspot.com
Find Some More Blogs and Giveaways!
(Blog- 1 – HOST OF BLOGMANIA) Between The Pages - http://betweenthelinesandmore.blogspot.com/
(Blog -2 – CO-HOST OF BLOGMANIA) The Black Sheep Dances - http://www.theblacksheepdances.blogspot.com
(Blog-43 - CO-HOST OF BLOGMANIA) Books, Books Everywhere - http://bookywooks.blogspot.com/
(Blog-68) Mama Librarian - http://mamalibrarian.blogspot.com/
(Blog-92) Groovy's Ruminations - http://groovybell.blogspot.com/
(Blog-36) Along the Way - http://a-long-the-way.blogspot.com/
(Blog-8) A Mom’s Take - http://AMomsTake.Blogspot.com
(Blog-18) Aubut Family - www.aubutfamily.com
(Blog-109) Mommy’s Minutes - http://mommys-minute.blogspot.com
(Blog-118) Designs By Dawn Marie - http://designsbydawnmaire.blogspot.com
You Can NOT Enter by Comments
The BIDU edge
BIDU is my poster child for weekly trading, using only Friday's close to determine if BIDU should be held LONG or SHORT as of Monday's Open. You can see on the Weekly chart below, there is not a whole lot of trading going on here:
In the vernacular of trend following, that is called an edge.
A
BIDU Weekly Trend Model
On a more Intermediate time frame, the Daily Trend Model, BIDU's most recent signal was a BUY generated at the close of trading on April 23 @ 645.76:
BIDU Daily Trend Model
BIDU is up 15% today @ 710.95
BEIJING (TheStreet) -- Baidu(BIDI) shares are soaring in premarket trading Thursday after the operator of China's No. 1 Internet search engine said first-quarter profit rose 165%.The trend models didn't know this news was coming, they only knew that BIDU was in a long term uptrend (weekly model) and a fresh intermediate term uptrend (daily model).
In the vernacular of trend following, that is called an edge.
A
NNVC - Hourly
NNVC Hourly Trend Model
As volume has picked up in 2010, the above hourly trend model has caught my attention, especially for those seeking additional entry points for NNVC.
The recovery late Wednesday from 1.70 to 2.00 was enough to trigger a fresh Buy in the hourly model. Note also the early warning Sell generated April 15th at about 2.40. NNVC then dropped to about 2.16, triggered a Buy that was quickly reversed to a Sell at 2.06, which then saw NNVC drop to 1.70 before the reversal Long on yesterday's close.
I'm not suggesting actively trading NNVC based on intraday trends, but, the trades and opportunities are there, for anyone so inclined.
High deductible health insurance can be bad for your health
See why:
"The individual health insurance policy they bought to replace Janie's group coverage at work has such a high deductible that they've sharply cut back doctor visits, skipping some routine care and going only when absolutely necessary.
Freelancers Janie and Chris Peterson love the freedom of life without a boss. But it comes with a high price -- dwindling savings, erratic cash flow, and a ton of financial anxiety."
"The individual health insurance policy they bought to replace Janie's group coverage at work has such a high deductible that they've sharply cut back doctor visits, skipping some routine care and going only when absolutely necessary.
Freelancers Janie and Chris Peterson love the freedom of life without a boss. But it comes with a high price -- dwindling savings, erratic cash flow, and a ton of financial anxiety."
References:
Financial planning for freelance workers - Mar. 11, 2010. CNN.
Image source: United States one-dollar bill. Wikipedia, public domain.
The Book of Knowledge by David Michael Slater
Stars: ****
CBAY Books (2009)
Teen Fiction/ YA Fiction
10 and Up (the ages given but labelled as YA)
Summary: The second book in the Sacred Books Series. It continues right where the first book left off. Between the various attempts on their lives, the assault on their father, and a shocking discovery about their deceased mother, Dex and Daphna have endured enough for a lifetime. They barely have enough energy to stand, let alone save the world. Unfortunately, they don't have a choice. If they work together, the twins might stand a chance of discovering the truth about The Book of Nonsense. But are they really working together?
First I must caution that this book is controversial. I don't want to give the story away at all but the story gives an unusual explanation for a major bible story that certain people might find offensive. It's not bad in any way but if you are very devout in your Christian beliefs and believe every word of the bible to be exact truth, you may not like this book. You can read a bit more about that at Beaverton Valley Times.
Personally I found it interesting and thought-provoking. It truly has me thinking about my beliefs, even though that was not the intention of the book at all. I don't participate in book clubs because I generally have no interest in discussing books after I read them (other than to provide a review.) However this is one of the few where I'd like to exchange emails with another adult who has read this book.
Although I think the Book of Knowledge (and The Book of Nonsense,) could perhaps use a bit of work, in general I really enjoyed the book and am looking forward to Book Three which says a lot as I don't normally read series. It keeps you thinking and wondering what's going to happen next and I can never guess correctly what's going to happen which I like.
If you're interested, I read this book during the Clean Away the Clutter Readathon but as part of an activity for Dewey's 24-hour Read-a-thon I talked about seeing the Sacred Books Series made into movies.
Links of Interest: My review of The Book of Nonsense (Book 1), David Michael Slater,
Other Reviews: NONE YET
Buy The Book of Knowledge at amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews
CBAY Books (2009)
Teen Fiction/ YA Fiction
10 and Up (the ages given but labelled as YA)
Summary: The second book in the Sacred Books Series. It continues right where the first book left off. Between the various attempts on their lives, the assault on their father, and a shocking discovery about their deceased mother, Dex and Daphna have endured enough for a lifetime. They barely have enough energy to stand, let alone save the world. Unfortunately, they don't have a choice. If they work together, the twins might stand a chance of discovering the truth about The Book of Nonsense. But are they really working together?
First I must caution that this book is controversial. I don't want to give the story away at all but the story gives an unusual explanation for a major bible story that certain people might find offensive. It's not bad in any way but if you are very devout in your Christian beliefs and believe every word of the bible to be exact truth, you may not like this book. You can read a bit more about that at Beaverton Valley Times.
Personally I found it interesting and thought-provoking. It truly has me thinking about my beliefs, even though that was not the intention of the book at all. I don't participate in book clubs because I generally have no interest in discussing books after I read them (other than to provide a review.) However this is one of the few where I'd like to exchange emails with another adult who has read this book.
Although I think the Book of Knowledge (and The Book of Nonsense,) could perhaps use a bit of work, in general I really enjoyed the book and am looking forward to Book Three which says a lot as I don't normally read series. It keeps you thinking and wondering what's going to happen next and I can never guess correctly what's going to happen which I like.
If you're interested, I read this book during the Clean Away the Clutter Readathon but as part of an activity for Dewey's 24-hour Read-a-thon I talked about seeing the Sacred Books Series made into movies.
Links of Interest: My review of The Book of Nonsense (Book 1), David Michael Slater,
Other Reviews: NONE YET
Buy The Book of Knowledge at amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews
at
4:00 AM
The Art of Teaching Math (video worth watching!)
Sick kiddo = no school today. Learn from this video today... :)
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Portfolder - Farm Unit
We wrapped up our farm unit today by making a Portfolder, characterized by the following:
Today, my student did the layout and paste-up for his farm portfolder. [Cover photo, left.] Since the portfolder is intended to show the learning process, he wrote in little dialogue bubbles, describing various activities and lessons from the unit. He also took time to reflect on learning: what was the most fun, what proved to be the greatest challenge, etc. This became an interesting point of conversation when the assignment that was the most fun was also the part that gave him the biggest challenge. (Little Red Hen book) It was great to be able to note that challenges can be quite fun!
When a Portfolder is finished, it's time to celebrate and share learning with others. Tonight he shared the contents with Dad and siblings. Tomorrow with grandparents. And, perhaps a celebratory lunch?
Here are several views of the finished Portfolder. It's impossible to show the fronts/backs of the numerous flaps, but you'll get the general idea.
Open to first section:
Open to second section:
Closed, back cover:
The beauty of a Portfolder? He'll return to look at his work again and again, reviewing and sharing with others in the process.
- made from poster board
- show student thinking from beginning (What do I know about my subject? What do I want to know about my subject?) to end (What have I learned?) of any given unit of study
- filled with students' comments and reflections about what they've learned
- photos show children actively learning
- include book/materials list of resources used during the unit
- cover reflects original student artwork
- charts, graphs, timelines and other graphic organizers are kid-generated
- layout is determined by the child
Today, my student did the layout and paste-up for his farm portfolder. [Cover photo, left.] Since the portfolder is intended to show the learning process, he wrote in little dialogue bubbles, describing various activities and lessons from the unit. He also took time to reflect on learning: what was the most fun, what proved to be the greatest challenge, etc. This became an interesting point of conversation when the assignment that was the most fun was also the part that gave him the biggest challenge. (Little Red Hen book) It was great to be able to note that challenges can be quite fun!
When a Portfolder is finished, it's time to celebrate and share learning with others. Tonight he shared the contents with Dad and siblings. Tomorrow with grandparents. And, perhaps a celebratory lunch?
Here are several views of the finished Portfolder. It's impossible to show the fronts/backs of the numerous flaps, but you'll get the general idea.
Open to first section:
Open to second section:
Closed, back cover:
The beauty of a Portfolder? He'll return to look at his work again and again, reviewing and sharing with others in the process.
NNVC updated chart
The NNVC Daily Trend Model reversed from Long to Short on April 19th, at $2.01. Today, NNVC is 15% lower and is flirting with its 50 day moving average. You can see how this level has provided price support in the past.
As I have written may times, I don't actively trade NNVC, but that philosophy cuts both ways and anyone holding from the April 15th high of $2.57 is getting clobbered. But remember it was only about a year ago when NNVC was trading under $0.50 and I was banging the table to get into it at a bargain price. Thus with the stock up over 200% since then, one could look at the drop to the 50 day moving average as normal and maybe even another buying opportunity.
A
"The doctor in literature: Private life" by Solomon Posen at Google Books
"This is a structured, annotated and indexed anthology dealing with the personality and the behaviour of doctors, and doctor-patient relationships - ideal for medical humanities courses."
Medical school letters of recommendation have formally been replaced by tweets
Doctor_V's tweets in Brizzly (click to enlarge the image) - read from the bottom of the screenshot.
If you are a medical school I highly suggest you admit @beccacamp .@LeeAase I don't know if Mayo School of Medicine takes Twitter recommendations but I formally recommend @beccacamp. Medical school letters of recommendation have formally been replaced by tweets.
Indeed. And if the tweets are by Doctor_V, they should be strongly considered in the admission process... :)
VXX Buy Signal
Yesterday's sharp decline was sufficient to generate a reversal from Short to Long on the VXX Daily Trend Model:
VXX is an exchange traded fund that emulates the VIX, a market volatility measure. As VIX rises, equity prices decline and as VIX declines, equity prices rise. This is evident from the decline in VXX shown in the chart, coinciding with the market rally of the past two months.
Early trading indicates a bounce-back rally, that coupled with a Fed announcement later today makes anything possible. But what this chart tells us is that something is different for the first time since mid-February. Modest new market short positions are suggested, pending confirmation of an intermediate term sell-off in the next few days.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Is it different this time?
A couple of weeks ago we had a financial-led decline, but SDS never budged from its Short trend mode.
An hour before the close today, that short trend is in real jeopardy. Regarding the question first above posed, today's closing price my very well provide the answer.
An hour before the close today, that short trend is in real jeopardy. Regarding the question first above posed, today's closing price my very well provide the answer.
TZA
TZA is a highly leveraged ETF that is an inverse index for the Russell 2000. I watch it mostly on an intermediate daily basis, but adding the hourly provides a head start for traders.
TZA sustained downtrend from mid-February
This short from about $10 has been an excellent way to trade the recent market strength, with gains of about 45% in two months.
TZA 60 minute trend model
The hourly model above is on a fresh Buy signal, but prices have fallen back to intersect with the trend reversal line. One of two outcomes is imminent, either prices find support and rally off of the trend line, or, prices fall below the line and enter a fresh Sell mode. One way to trade this is to enter Long here, with a tight stop at the hourly reversal level (5.45) and if TZA closes below that level, cover and reverse Short.
As long as the daily model is in a Sell mode, that bearish trend gets the benefit of doubt here. When and if the daily flips Long, TZA's bias becomes bullish.
The men behind famous eponymous diseases
From CNN:
"Having a disease named after you is a decidedly mixed bag. On the one hand, your scientific developments are forever commemorated. On the other hand, though, you're stuck with the knowledge that no patient will ever be happy upon hearing your name."
Daniel Elmer Salmon (1850 – 1914) was a veterinary surgeon. He earned the first D.V.M. degree awarded in the United States, and spent his career studying animal diseases for the U.S. Department of Agriculture. He gave his name to the Salmonella genus of bacteria, which were discovered by an assistant, and named in his honor. Image source: Wikipedia, public domain.
New medical conditions that are being discovered are not named after scientists or physicians anymore. The eponymous system is non-descriptive and generally confusing.
References:
"Having a disease named after you is a decidedly mixed bag. On the one hand, your scientific developments are forever commemorated. On the other hand, though, you're stuck with the knowledge that no patient will ever be happy upon hearing your name."
Daniel Elmer Salmon (1850 – 1914) was a veterinary surgeon. He earned the first D.V.M. degree awarded in the United States, and spent his career studying animal diseases for the U.S. Department of Agriculture. He gave his name to the Salmonella genus of bacteria, which were discovered by an assistant, and named in his honor. Image source: Wikipedia, public domain.
New medical conditions that are being discovered are not named after scientists or physicians anymore. The eponymous system is non-descriptive and generally confusing.
References:
Math and Poetry ("Smart" by Shel Silverstein, money lessons)
Have you ever considered combining math and poetry? You might join a friend and read Math Talk: Mathematical Ideas in Poems for Two Voices. You could read "Shapes," by Shel Silverstein in his book, A Light in the Attic. Or you might consider using the hilarious poem, "Smart," (also by Silverstein in Where the Sidewalk Ends) and combine math (money), poetry, and drama.
(Note: you can purchase just the MP3 of "Smart" on Amazon, cheap. I own the audio recording of the books, available on CD: Where the Sidewalk Ends CD, A Light in the Attic CD.)
Today, Little Student and I read "Smart" aloud. We then used real money to demonstrate each of the exchanges that take place in the poem. As we made each exchange, my student (in the role of the son) told me how much money he lost in that step. He cut out coins and a dollar bill from printouts to represent the money used in the poem and glued them onto a 5-flap book. He read the poem again, pointing to each visual representation of the money as he went. Finally, he wrote number sentences to demonstrate what happened in each exchange; he wrote subtraction problems with blanks to fill in (see photo) to show how much money was lost each time.
He also played some money games on-line, selected from the following...
On-line Money Games:
Cash Out--Player becomes the cashier at a store and must give change. Varying levels of difficult.
Making Change--Pet store worker must make change with fewest possible coins.
Moneyville--fun, on-line role plays from the Moneyville touring exhibit. Become a neighborhood lemonade tycoon!
National Library of Virtual Manipulatives--(look under "money" by grade level)--Count the money and enter the correct amount.
Practice Counting Money--Player has to click and drag coins to equal the total amount shown.
Scottie Nickel-- Change money into the smallest number of coins possible.
Additional Teaching Resources on Money
Mathwire also has some fabulous lessons on money.
Additional Math Poetry Resources
Math Poems--from Math Mama's Poetry Challenge. Thanks, Sue, for the link!
A blog: Intersections--Poetry with Mathematics. Thanks, Maria, at Natural Math.
Next week, a group of my students will be dramatizing "Smart." Check back here for results. This is going to be FUN! :)
(Note: you can purchase just the MP3 of "Smart" on Amazon, cheap. I own the audio recording of the books, available on CD: Where the Sidewalk Ends CD, A Light in the Attic CD.)
Today, Little Student and I read "Smart" aloud. We then used real money to demonstrate each of the exchanges that take place in the poem. As we made each exchange, my student (in the role of the son) told me how much money he lost in that step. He cut out coins and a dollar bill from printouts to represent the money used in the poem and glued them onto a 5-flap book. He read the poem again, pointing to each visual representation of the money as he went. Finally, he wrote number sentences to demonstrate what happened in each exchange; he wrote subtraction problems with blanks to fill in (see photo) to show how much money was lost each time.
He also played some money games on-line, selected from the following...
On-line Money Games:
Cash Out--Player becomes the cashier at a store and must give change. Varying levels of difficult.
Making Change--Pet store worker must make change with fewest possible coins.
Moneyville--fun, on-line role plays from the Moneyville touring exhibit. Become a neighborhood lemonade tycoon!
National Library of Virtual Manipulatives--(look under "money" by grade level)--Count the money and enter the correct amount.
Practice Counting Money--Player has to click and drag coins to equal the total amount shown.
Scottie Nickel-- Change money into the smallest number of coins possible.
Additional Teaching Resources on Money
Mathwire also has some fabulous lessons on money.
Additional Math Poetry Resources
Math Poems--from Math Mama's Poetry Challenge. Thanks, Sue, for the link!
A blog: Intersections--Poetry with Mathematics. Thanks, Maria, at Natural Math.
Next week, a group of my students will be dramatizing "Smart." Check back here for results. This is going to be FUN! :)
Monday, April 26, 2010
Week With No Name Update: New Giveway!
Thanks to Hachette Book Group I have one more giveaway from last week. Sunday's review of Sex, Drugs and Gefilte Fish by Shana Liebman now includes a giveaway.
5 Copies, Open to US/Canada, No P.O. Boxes until May 5, 2010
Check it out!
UPDATE: I should have specified. You can't enter here. You have to go to the link above and scroll down to fill in the form. Comments are now closed here to prevent someone from trying to enter here.
5 Copies, Open to US/Canada, No P.O. Boxes until May 5, 2010
Check it out!
UPDATE: I should have specified. You can't enter here. You have to go to the link above and scroll down to fill in the form. Comments are now closed here to prevent someone from trying to enter here.
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