Thursday, September 30, 2010

Edward Witten: connecting quantum mechanics and geometry

The postulates of quantum mechanics seem to be truly immutable and fundamental for the working of this Universe - and multiverse, if the latter exists.

However, it's also pretty important that events take place in time. Special relativity completes time into spacetime and general relativity allows this spacetime to get curved.

String theory teaches us many details about the unification and ways how various mathematical possibilities are realized in physics - defined in the broader sense.

Aside from unification, some of the physicists have dreamed about a tighter form of union between quantum mechanics and geometry - some kind of duality that shows that one of the pillars implies the other (at least when it is generalized in an appropriate way).




For example, millions of readers of The Elegant Universe by Brian Greene remember the following paragraph from the last chapter that is dedicated to this very question:
Currently, no one knows how to do this. But many string theorists foresee a reformulation of how quantum principles are incorporated into our theoretical description of the universe as the next major upheaval in our understanding.

For example, as Cumrun Vafa has said, "I think that a reformulation of quantum mechanics which will resolve many of its puzzles is just around the corner. I think many share the view that the recently uncovered dualities point toward a new, more geometrical framework for quantum mechanics, in which space, time, and quantum properties will be inseparably joined together."

And according to Edward Witten, "I believe the logical status of quantum mechanics is going to change in a manner that is similar to the way that the logical status of gravity changed when Einstein discovered the equivalence principle. This process is far from complete with quantum mechanics, but I think that people will one day look back on our epoch as the period when it began."

[From 1998 interviews/chats of Brian Greene with Vafa and Witten.]
Those of you who have talked about some deeper issues with Cumrun Vafa and/or Edward Witten know that they feel that these visions were or are important for the future of physics but they would often be modest about this esoteric knowledge.

Edward Witten has dedicated a part of his luxurious time to these fantasies, too. Although both quotes above are relevant, it actually turns out that Vafa's quote more accurately describes Witten's new preprint that has just arrived:
A new look at the path integral of quantum mechanics (PDF)
The preprint depends on topological string theory whose research has had two epicenters - the vicinity of Cumrun Vafa's office at Harvard and the neighborhood of Edward Witten's office at the IAS in Princeton.

The 78-page preprint also depends on complex numbers that are fundamental in physics as well as some new analytical continuation that generalizes the Wick rotation, the most frequently used type of analytic continuation in physics.

Witten's derivations are presented - and probably have to be presented - in Feynman's path integral formalism. It's the approach to quantum mechanics that arguably preserves the spacetime geometry in as manifest a form as it can - which is helpful for Witten's purposes. It is no coincidence that Feynnman's pioneering paper about path integrals in non-relativistic quantum mechanics was titled Space-time approach to non-relativistic quantum mechanics: note that Adobe's PDF format hasn't changed much since 1948 (just kidding).

At any rate, Witten simply takes a path integral and complexifies its phase space coordinates p and q. Visually, the dimension of the phase space gets doubled. In such an extended space, there are many ways how to deform the contours. In the past, people have deformed contours in many ways but they just converted one quantum way to look at a quantum theory to another, equally quantum way to look at a quantum theory (recall Wick's rotation, for example).

However, Witten's special new contours do more than that: they pretty much "explain" where quantum mechanics comes from. Just to be sure, it's not the kind of "emergence" that many of you hope - that would conclude that quantum mechanics doesn't exist and everything is classical: indeed, Witten is no crackpot who would believe that quantum mechanics is fundamentally wrong. It is something that makes quantum mechanics even more abstract and dependent upon advanced mathematics - but you have been warned that this is the only reasonable type of progress that could be expected.

By this procedure, the path integral of a non-relativistic quantum mechanical theory is converted to a two-dimensional quantum field theory. This model turns out to be a topologically twisted A-model and the main actors in this model that do the interesting maths are actually not point-like particles: the main players are exotic types of A-branes known as coisotropic branes. Recall that A-branes are middle-dimensional branes - generalizing "real" contours in the complex plane to many dimensions. The naive type of A-branes are those on the Lagrange cycles (recall 3D cycles in 6D Calabi-Yau manifolds) but here a special type is used, instead. The Floer theory of complexified spaces becomes helpful here.

Interestingly enough, Witten can do a "similar" thing not just for a 1-dimensional field theory i.e. non-relativistic quantum mechanics - which produced the 2-dimensional field theory above. He can also perform an "analogous" exercise for 3-dimensional theories, namely his favorite Chern-Simons theories. Their path integral may now be extracted from N=4 supersymmetric gauge theory with the same gauge group (and with a boundary) in 4 dimensions.

Unfortunately, there is not enough room in this footnote to complete the article. It will be continued later. ;-)



P.S.: When you open the PDF file, be ready for a distraction on the very first line. Several years ago, I argued it was an extremely bad idea to change the identifiers of preprints on the arXiv, especially the removal of the "discipline" such as hep-th from the identifier. I argued that people who matter wouldn't get used to the new system which is inferior, anyway.

Needless to say, the first line of Witten's paper says hep-th/yymm.nnnn. The author hopes that this sequence of characters gets translated to the right numerical identifier. Well, it didn't. ;-) All the templates how to write similar things have changed and frankly speaking, I don't even remember what exactly Witten should have written instead of hep-th/yymm.nnnn.



Andy Strominger and a black hole talk

Andy Strominger gave a very amusing talk about the harmonic oscillators of the 21st century (watch, 67 minutes) which are the black holes - both the simplest and the most complex objects we know in the Universe.

When Andy was a student, his advisor Roman Jackiw would insist that Andy and others had to convert everything to a harmonic oscillator. And you know, field theory showed that this thing can be done to all elementary particles (and also to the Hydrogen atom and other things!). Andy is now what Roman used to be, and he insists that the students transform everything to a black hole. :-)

Strominger starts with the history - Schwarzschild in the World War I - and how it took 50 years for the experts to agree about the right interpretation of his solution. Various event took place, Penrose understood the causal structure, and Wheeler gave it the name "black hole" in 1967. In the 1970s, the analogies of thermodynamics and black holes began to emerge. The thermodynamic-statistical relationship is the relationship between simple and complex.

He eventually gets to the breakthroughs of himself and Cumrun Vafa in the mid 1990s, mentioning the role of string theory as well as the relative independence of the calculations on string theory. Any sufficiently consistent picture of quantum gravity has to achieve the same result. Of course, this can't include LQG or any picture that is obviously far from being consistent, but it is an OK statement for various AdS/CFT-like descriptions of situations that are not "quite stringy", or that are at least not "manifestly stringy".

Some comments about observed Kerr black holes that are near extremal. It's been discuss on TRF, too. Andy also shows the NASA animation of that hole that I uploaded to YouTube - and for mostly irrational reasons, it became the most viewed video I uploaded with 300,000+ visits. (The anthems and Smetana and Mládek songs are not too far, however.)

Strominger then shows how the 2D conformal symmetry may be identified even in the geometry of black holes that don't "obviously" look like black holes with this symmetry. Discussed of various AdS/CFT applications - nuclear matter, superconductors, graphene, non-Fermi liquids etc. - are said to reduce to black holes, giving us a new superior method to study these physical systems.

Navier-Stokes equations of hydrodynamics (with turbulence) are a largely unsolved mathematical problem that may be reduced to a black hole exercise, too.

According to Andy, string theory acts as an "engine" running behind all of this - while it doesn't force the condensed matter and other physicists to believe that it's the right theory of particle physics. However, Andy does spend some time with the bogus claims about (or against) string theory and reviews some basic facts and history here. Strings became a theory of quantum gravity in the 1970s and remained the only known consistent solution as of today.

The other, non-gravitational forces were added in the 1980s. Of course, Andy has played an important role in these developments, too. Meanwhile, string theory has grown into a large and cohesive framework that contains pretty much all the good ideas for beyond-the-Standard-Model issues in theoretical physics. It should no longer be called just string theory but it is: nevertheless, all important physical phenomena are different facets of the same theoretical structure.

Andy makes fun of different attitudes to string theory: it is the theory that's solved everything, and we only need to go to Stockholm. However, you run into the non-uniqueness etc., and then you end up watching TV at home (which is sometimes not bad, by the way haha).

An easier way to watch TV is to say that it is a theory of nothing etc. Andy sensibly chooses the middle route and says string theory is something. ;-) Something has been solved, something is waiting, and you don't have to watch TV. :-)

Strominger prepared grades for string theory, with four As, two Bs, no Cs, three Ds, and two Fs. The most important is the A from "not being ruled out as a theory of the real world" - because every other theory has been. Not a surprising fact given the world's being such a complicated and surprising place.

String theory gets an F from "unambiguous testable predictions". Many people in the audience began to stupidly laugh when someone asks how it can be ruled out if it has no "unambiguous predictions". [Laughter.] Of course, the answer is: "Easy. You can rule a theory out if it made wrong predictions." Except that string theory hasn't.

The absence of chiral fermions is quoted as a lethal blow for (extended) supergravity. These people just don't understand that many tests have already occurred. If this is a Harvard colloquium, and the background at the end makes it very clear that it is one, it is extremely bad, indeed. Even ignoring politics, I would be afraid to walk there just because of this moronic laughter that looked like an endorsement of that dumb question. People could have falsified string theory but they have not. There can be another prediction in the future that will rule out string theory - or de facto prove it.

If you care, string theory gets an:

A for not being ruled out,
F for unambiguous testable predictions,
D for an LHC signal,
B for solving black hole puzzles,
A for inspiration to maths,
B for inspiration to the rest of physics,
A for unification (surely "a" solution to a previous superhard problem),
D for uniqueness,
F for solutions to the cosmological constant problem,
D for understanding of the Big Bang or the birth of the Cosmos,
A for solving Pauli's renormalizability problem of GR.

I think Andy is right that people would agree with the grades; they would disagree with whether it is a passing or failing report card. However, as Strominger emphasizes, string theory is the only student in the class. ;-) If you flunk her, you have to shut the school down.

To summarize, the road to understand the Universe inevitably has many twists and turns. There are interesting places to go.

In the question period, Melissa Franklin says that she actually feels warm for string theory. A question leads Strominger to lead to comments about getting energy out of rotating black holes. However, we don't expect to learn about microscopic physics from macroscopic physics.

Another question is an incoherent rant on the Titanic. I didn't understand what the question was but it was clearly some hostile rant. Andy points out that his talk was about traditional physics - so even when talking about the stringy physics, the actual insights (about the conformal symmetry etc.) did follow from the same diffeomorphisms we learned from Einstein in 1915.

Another question was too silent but it was something about some collisions. Again, Andy wanted to understand the macroscopic physics. One more question was more about experimental astrophysics, and an astrophysicist gave an answer instead of Andy. Another question led Andy to say that the accretion disk may approach the horizon for extreme black holes.

Hat tip: John C.

Place Value Structures, Class #4

Few things are more thrilling that seeing a child with an "ah ha" moment. Times that by several children and you've made my day!

Today was our last class on place value structures using material from Bridges. For the last three weeks we've been considering place value in base five, looking at units (1), strips (5), mats (25), and stripmats (125). Today I asked students to imagine what the pieces might look like if we were working in base four. They began by building the pieces with tile. They debated over whether the mat should have 16 pieces or 24 pieces. (I think that a few jumped from the logic that if base 5 had 25 pieces, then base 4 should have 24 pieces.) We looked at the base five chart we'd made. Students recalled that with base five, each place value was x5, so decided that with base four, each would be x4 with a total of 16 for a mat. No easy task.

They cut a unit, strip and mat from graph paper. I then asked them to cut out a strip mat. When they couldn't agree on the area, I asked them to build mats with tile. Ah-ha! Then they remembered how to follow the place value pattern and had no trouble building a stripmat of 64.

Since the base five building didn't come easy, I wondered how the next question (and one of my big goals for the whole class!) would go...  "Close your eyes. Picture base ten. What would a unit look like? A strip? A mat?" The quietest child in the class couldn't hold back..."100!" They all immediately told me that base ten would have a unit of 1, a strip of 10, and a mat of 100!!!  I gave them base ten pieces and asked them to create a strip mat. With shining eyes and wide grins they asked me for TEN MATS and told me that a strip mat would have 1000 units. They built a strip mat and then proceeded to tell me what the next piece would look like and that it would have 10,000 units. "And then 100,000 and then 1,000,000...!!!!!!!!!!!!!" They helped me to complete a venn diagram comparing base five and base ten.

We read Sir Cumference and All the King's Tens and talked about place value in base ten. I also read The 329th Friend and asked them to build 329 (and a few additional numbers) with the base ten pieces.

It isn't unusual for teachers to ask, "Why do we teach other bases to children?" It's elementary, my dear! When we teach other bases, we give children an opportunity to develop conceptual understanding of place value. That deep understanding transfers to work in "our base," base ten. The lightbulbs in my classroom were going off so fast today that the electric meter must have been smokin'! Base ten place value means something new and exciting.

It's elementary. :)

You've been a wonderful class! Can't wait to see you again!

Message to Muslims by Muslims: do not integrate - do not free the women

Plucked from the comments here is another example of the infantile Islamic Jew hater jihadibabble we are all too familiar with:

NO! u attack Muslim. all christ and jew attack Muslim and Muslimah. it is evil zionist and they wil be killed ok? Muslim are peace, but zionist r evil and they shud die. u must know this. many american understand 9/11 was from jews and they must burn for this. zionist are real terrorist not mujahiden. mujahiden protect Islam from kufar like george bush nd people who wish to stop truth of Islam. You name once where Muslim attack jew or christain? never Muslim attack

Now check out the video from vladtepesblogdotcom:



This video is more of the same whining about 'Muslim is victim' and 'Zionist invaders' and 'women must obey Islam' it goes on and on, but the main theme is to not integrate into Western society but to promote Islam and the Caliphate; to dominate. To jihad.

HT Rose via THE HOT FUR

Czech members of IPCC demand deep reforms

Mr Vítězslav Kremlík, the climate skeptic and blogger at klimaskeptik.cz, was invited to the proceedings of the Czech segment of the IPCC meant to prepare a unified Czech stance for the upcoming 32nd plenary session of the IPCC in South Korea (October 11th-14th in Busan).
Kremlík's report (autom. transl. from Czech)
It turned out that the Czech IPCC folks, usually considered to be generic fearmongers (it may be our fault: we sometimes demonize all IPCC members and create the impression that all of them are hardcore power-thirsty lunatics just like Pachauri), are just compatible with the skeptical viewpoint. All the participants agreed that
  1. Rajendra Pachauri has to resign or be resigned
  2. The reforms recommended by the IAC panel should be implemented right now, for the fifth report - rather than in 5 years or so
  3. The nominations from May 2010 should be canceled; new nominations respecting the IAC recommendations should replace them
  4. Politicians' interventions to the scientific work should be minimized as much as possible
  5. The fifth report (AR5) shouldn't be another variation of the old theme; instead, it should represent an audit of the climatology studied by 2010: it should check the graphs, re-evaluate the scores quantifying the uncertainty of the findings, and separate previous claims to correct ones, exaggerated ones, and completely wrong ones
Mr Kremlík had a feeling that he was attending a party of fellow skeptics and was puzzled where the sudden skepticism came from.




However, everyone agreed that because the Czech Republic only manages one vote, it is unlikely that these desirable wishes are going to be accepted in Korea. After all, the participants agreed, carps are unlikely to sew their own pond. So it also seems likely that no climate skeptics will be invited to Korea (unlike the meeting in Prague). At the global level, the blockade continues.

Nevertheless, I encourage all readers who can contact their national representatives in the IPCC to show them what's going on in the Czech Republic - and maybe elsewhere - and prepare them so that there is a somewhat higher probability that a substantial progress will be achieved in Korea.

A New Hurricane Record?

Gary Padgett, writing to a tropical storm list-serv I am on, provides an interesting factoid, which I reproduce here with his permission (emphasis added):
We’re now at the first of October, and there’ve been no Category 3 or higher hurricanes (IH) to make landfall in the U. S. so far this season. The chances of a U. S. landfalling IH decrease significantly after 1 October. Over the past half-century, the only IHs to make landfall in the U. S. after 1 October were Hilda (1964), Opal (1995), and Wilma (2005). Hilda and Opal were already named tropical storms on the map as September ended—the only case forming in the month of October was Wilma.

If an IH does not make landfall in the U. S. during the remainder of this season, this will make five consecutive seasons without an IH landfall in the U. S. The last such instance of this (based upon the current HURDAT file) was 1910 – 1914. However, that being said, some caveats are in order.

(1) The current Saffir/Simpson classification of historical U. S. hurricanes was made by Hebert and Taylor in 1975. The parameter used to classify most of these was central pressure (CP), based on the older nominal CP ranges associated with each category. Nowadays, the S/S classification is based strictly upon the MSW at landfall.

(2) There are several cases, especially in the late 1930s, 1940s, and early 1950s, for which the assigned S/S category does not match the Best Track winds, so when they are eventually re-analyzed, the landfalling category could be adjusted up or down.

(3) Hurricanes Gustav and Ike of 2008 both made their U. S. landfall with an estimated MSW of 95 kts, and with CPs of 957 and 952 mb, respectively. Had these storms occurred in the early 20th century, they would have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes, and barring any reliable wind measurements (which would have been unlikely) would have probably remained classified as such during the re-analysis. Similarly, though not within the past five years, Hurricanes Floyd and Isabel, which made landfall with an estimated MSW of 90 kts and CP around 956 mb, would have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes based on the CP.
Even with the caveats, the US has had a remarkable streak of luck with respect to hurricanes -- or maybe, it's climate change! ;-)

Where we are

SPX Hourly with Trend Model and EW count
From the late August low (five waves down) the SPX has risen in five waves up.  Wave five up could extend, but as long as you can count five waves up, it could reverse down at any time in either an ABC correction or the beginning of a new five waves down.  If SPX closes lower on the day, its likely that the rally from August is over.


I have no idea why the first chart doesn't expand with a click.



 

Energy Access in Nigeria

Today's FT has a special report on Nigeria, and has a very interesting discussion of energy access:

Despite average cash injections of $2bn annually over recent years and large untapped gas reserves, electricity capacity remains at about 40 watts per capita, roughly enough to run one vacuum cleaner for every 25 inhabitants.

China manages 466 watts per person, Germany 1,468. South Africa, the continent’s economic powerhouse, generates 10 times as much electricity as Nigeria for a population one-third the size.

Officials calculate that the potential activity stymied by lack of electricity amounts to $130bn a year.

In the absence of a functioning grid, those who can afford it, spend about $13bn a year running the small generators whose rattle and sputter is the soundtrack of urban life. The poorest 40 per cent have no access to electricity.

Banks estimate that spending on power drives up their costs by 20 per cent, helping push interest rates well beyond what small businesses can afford.

Potential investors are hardly filled with confidence when the lights go out at ministries or – terrifyingly – airports.
The article has two very powerful quotes:
As Babatunde Fashola, Lagos state governor, said of the [Nigerian business conference] audience: “For them, electricity has become as important as oxygen.”
And:
As if the audience needed reminding, the organisers added: “The cost of darkness is infinite.”

Let the Misrepresentation Begin

It was only a matter of time before the blogcritics engaged The Climate Fix, which I welcome.  Unfortunately, they are off to a very bad start.  William Connolley, formerly of Real Climate fame, accuses me of spreading lies:
Well, not quite direct lies, more in the nature of deliberately-misleading by omission.
What is it that Connolley accuses me of omitting?  It is part of a quote from Steven Schneider. Connolley explains, based on his reading of Greenberg's review in Nature:
There is a long-standing tradition of abusing this quote from Schneider: which means that neither RP Jr nor DG can have done it accidentally, which makes the abuse all the more surprising. If you don't know the context, the quote continues:
This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both
You can find Schneider complaining about being misrepresented in this way by Julian Simon all the way back in 1996 in the APS newsletter.
The problem with Connolley's accusation is that I include the supposedly omitted quote in The Climate Fix and I also cite and quote from the APS Newsletter.  All of this appears on pp. 202-203, and here is that discussion in full, and you can see clearly that Connolley is simply wrong in his accusation.
Demands for certainty, however, don’t just come from politicians. Climate scientists also impose such demands on themselves, in order to make their scariest projections even scarier. This leads to more problems. In one of the more widely quoted comments ever made by a climate scientist, Steve Schneider wrote:
On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but—which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broad-based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This “double ethical bind” we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and bein honest. I hope that means being both.19
For his part, Schneider emphasized that this double ethical bind should never be resolved by resorting to mischaracterizing uncertainties. In response to the frequent use of his quote to suggest a green light for alarmism, Schneider wrote, “Not only do I disapprove of the ‘ends justify the means’ philosophy of which I am accused, but, in fact have actively campaigned against it in myriad speeches and writings.”20 Indeed, the vast majority of climate scientists that I have had the pleasure to get to know and work with over the years shares Schneider’s passion for accurately conveying climate science to the public and placing it into its policy context. However, not all of their colleagues share this passion, coloring views of all of the climate-science enterprise.
I welcome engagement and criticisms from the blogosphere, but making things up and failing to do one's homework is pretty uncool.

[UPDATE 10/1: William Connolley has begrudgingly struck through a few words in his post, which I suppose indicates the minimal possible admission on his part that he was wrong.  Even so, syndicated and unchanged versions of his post circulate in the blogosphere.  I suspect that I'll see much more of this type of attack based on public discussions of The Climate Fix.]

Metformin increases risk of vitamin B-12 deficiency

As many as 22% of people with type 2 diabetes could have vitamin B-12 deficiency.

This BMJ study evaluated the effects of metformin on the incidence of vitamin B-12 deficiency (lower than 150 pmol/l), low concentrations of vitamin B-12 (150-220 pmol/l), and folate and homocysteine concentrations in patients with type 2 diabetes receiving treatment with insulin.

Compared with placebo, metformin treatment was associated with a decrease in vitamin B-12 concentration of -19%.

The absolute risk of vitamin B-12 deficiency (lower than 150 pmol/l) at study end was 7.2 percentage points higher in the metformin group than in the placebo group with a number needed to harm of 13.8 per 4.3 years.

Long term treatment with metformin may increase the risk of vitamin B-12 deficiency, which results in raised homocysteine concentrations. Vitamin B-12 deficiency is preventable; therefore, regular measurement of vitamin B-12 concentrations during long term metformin treatment should be considered.

Image source: Metformin. Wikipedia, public domain.

Georges Charpak: 1924-2010

Georges Charpak was born in Dąbrowica, Poland (now: Ukraine) in 1924. His family falsified the documents and escaped from the Nazi system to Vichy France in the 1930s. All of them refused to display the yellow star. Georges has also joined the resistance, he was arrested, and sent to Dachau in 1944.



Fellow prisoners from Dachau who were unfortunately not lucky enough to work at CERN later.

From Dachau, he was sent to CERN in 1959, as a student of Frédéric Joliot-Curie, invented the multiwire proportional chamber, a part of the particle detectors, and was given the physics Nobel prize in 1992. Not bad outcome for a Dachau survivor. Throughout the life, he remained a staunch advocate of nuclear energy.




He died yesterday at age of 86: Heuer's CERN, Monsters and Critics, Sydney Morning Herald.

Royal Society abandons consensus on AGW



We have learned from Anthony Watts and GWPF that
Royal Society bows to climate change sceptics (The Times, today; BBC)
or skeptics, if you're a teabagger. ;-)

The Velvet Revolution sparked by the ClimateGate needed almost one year to propagate from East Anglia to the top U.K. scientific institution in London which is just 100 miles away; you may estimate how many years it will take for the signal to get to the Brussels or the U.S. ;-)

After a rebellion by 43 members, a new document (PDF) was born. It describes the future climate as follows:
... Some uncertainties are unlikely ever to be significantly reduced. ...

... The size of future temperature increases and other aspects of climate change, especially at the regional scale, are still subject to uncertainty. ...

... There is little confidence in specific projections of future regional climate change, except at continental scales. ...

... It is not possible to determine exactly how much the Earth will warm or exactly how the climate will change in the future. ...

... There remains the possibility that hitherto unknown aspects of the climate and climate change could emerge and lead to significant modifications in our understanding. ...
And so on. So go back to the blackboard, Sirs. While I am convinced that the new guide still includes lots of bogus claims that are on steroids written by people who are on sedatives, it is an undeniable progress.

The new document was authored by a whole working group but the key statements about the uncertainty were recommended by two fellows who are close to Lord Blaby and his GWPF. One of them was Anthony Kelly.




If you think that the new document will cause a substantial cooling of the atmosphere itself, you are probably wrong. As commenter Henry chance of WUWT has figured out, Joe Romm will blow a gasket. The fireworks and steam vent from that alone will warm the winter.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Welcome to Dhimmiland: Disney designs costume specifically for Muslims

Everyone else in America has to abide by Disney’s rules. Muslim interns get to make their own rules, and costumes. via The Associated Press: Disney, Muslim worker agree on hijab substitute.
photo AP
Check out Creeping Sharia

Daniel Greenberg on The Climate Fix in Nature

In the current issue of Nature, science policy polymath and well-known cynic Daniel Greenberg reviews The Climate Fix. Greenberg has some very positive things to say, upbraids me for my political naivete (showing his well earned role as dean of science policy cynics) and gets one big idea in the book very, very wrong.

First, the positive:
Pielke merits admiration for his staunch defence of scientific accuracy and integrity. . . The author is well qualified to contest the established organs for addressing climate change, principally the IPCC and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. . . Pielke is not an apostle of inaction but a pragmatist who repeatedly and deservedly portrays his diagnoses and remedies as common sense.
Second, the upbraiding:
[H]is well-argued book ignores political reality. Neither politicians nor the public respond to nuanced, cautiously worded messages from the arcane world of science. . . He largely fails to recognize, however, that common sense is frequently unwelcome in climate politics.. .
If my book is too be criticized for its nuance and excessive common sense, well, I suppose I can live with that;-) 

Finally, Greenberg introduces a serious misrepresentation of my views when he characterizes them as follows:
Although Pielke accepts that the evidence for human influence on the climate system is robust, he stresses that the goal of cutting global carbon emissions is incompatible with economic growth for the world's poorest 1.5 billion people.
No. Not even close.  In fact, I argue much the opposite -- it is through providing energy access to the world's poorest and sustaining economic growth that lies our best chance for decarbonization.  This is the essence of the "oblique" approach that Chapter 9 focuses on.  I can't imagine how Greenberg got this confused as I state it ad nausem, unless he skipped or skimmed over the last chapter.  In the review he also confuses a carbon tax with a coal tax.  He further mistakenly suggests that I see a focus on carbon dioxide as a tradeoff with adaptation, when again, I say the opposite, specifically that they are not substitutes for each other.  Greenberg's expertise is not climate policy, but science policy, so that certainly explains his emphasis and perhaps his errors.

Ultimately, Greenberg concludes by emphasizing his own cynicism:
The Climate Fix illustrates the dilemma confronting scientists who seek to influence politics. Telling it like it is does not thrive on Capitol Hill. But shaping the message to suit the politics often involves a betrayal of scientific truth and a distortion of public and political understanding.
From where I sit, focusing on presenting politically acceptable policies built on a foundation of common sense is exactly what policy analysts and other experts should strive to do in the political process.  I simply reject his implication that there is a trade-off between honesty and effectiveness, and say so in the book.

I fully accept his criticism that the book introduces nuance and common sense into a debate that welcomes neither. Greenberg's review is appreciated, however it is unfortunate that he badly mischaracterizes some of the major points in the book in as prominent a venue as Nature.

Nonsmoker Klaus inaugurates a new Philip Morris plant



Today, Czech president Václav Klaus - who is as staunch a nonsmoker as your humble correspondent - went to the old, royal, Eastern Central Bohemian town of Kutná Hora (which is also famous for a church, silver mining, and its historical and modern coins). He took the scissors and inaugurated a new part of the factory that will allow the production to be increased from 30 billion to 40 billion cigarettes a year.

He wished success to the company which has become one of the flawless example of the Czechoslovak privatization from the early 1990s.




Of course, Philip Morris "himself" publicly supports the sequences of bans and other methods to suppress their industry - it's all about the image. On the other hand, Václav Klaus doesn't have to do such things. So he emphasized that the EU officials are ludicrous if they want to fight against smoking by bans. (Imagine smoker Obama or any other modern Western politician boasting the same balls!)

We remember where bans have led: smuggling and home production of products of much lower quality.

Needless to say, I mostly agree with him. The ultimate reason why people smoke is that they like it: they instinctively, semi-rationally evaluate the utility of the cigarettes and it's apparently positive for them, even when they take the possible extra health problems (everyone knows about them by now!) and the spent money into account.

Yes, some people display a very short-term thinking when they "can't resist a cigarette". But it's still their decision to focus on the short time scale. And they usually have legitimate reasons why they prefer the short-term values over the long-term values. Moreover, I unfortunately know people for whom a total smoking ban would steal one of the last pleasures of their life...

Is smoking a kind of addiction? Well, yes, you may call it this way. But it's just a negative way of expressing a fact that may also be phrased in a positive way. The people try tobacco and they suddenly can't understand how they could have lived without it!

We usually don't say that we're addicted to water, sugars, proteins, or fats. Some people may even be addicted to vitamins or clean air, too. ;-) They're nutrients and other things that our organisms often consider beneficial. It may sound "dirty" but cigarettes play the same role for the smokers although the benefits are largely psychological.

As I said, you don't have to convince me that tobacco sucks but I still think that I understand the smokers' thinking.

Fighting against deficits in the EU

The European Union has also presented its new idea how to fight deficits: those who violate the rules will pay 0.2% of their GDP. Now, this is quite a weapon!

It makes me laugh out loud, especially when I read about the proposed contrived and arbitrary rules what to do with the interests from those 0.2% of the GDP. If your country suffers from deficits but behaves nicely for some time, according to some complicated detailed rules, it may save something like 1% of 0.2% of the GDP. Saving as much as 0.002% of the GDP is surely going to create a paradise on Earth. ;-)

0.002% of the GDP may be around $5 million for a medium country and it's approximately enough to pay the lawyers to learn what the rules about those 0.002% are, and to represent the country - without a guaranteed success. ;-)

But even the overall figure of 0.2% - which a country pays if it "ultimately fails" to obey the fiscal rules - is completely negligible. A typical country that violates the budget rules has a budget deficit equal to something like 10% of their GDP. Well, that's neat, so they will pay the fine and increase the deficit to 10.2% of the GDP. Big deal.

Moreover, the money that is collected from these fines is mostly going to return to these countries, anyway - once their economies are being saved by the European Union, these funds will be helpful and used. The saving procedure will come earlier because the 0.2% fine makes the financial situation of the country somewhat worse - and the existence of the fines in the history will make the help by the EU a more visible "ethical urgency" because the EU with its fines will have participated in escalating the country's problems. Meanwhile, this meaningless shell game will feed dozens or hundreds of useless EU bureaucrats who will claim that they're convinced that they're saving the world by moving the money back and forth (with some friction that deposits financial heat to their pockets).

This mechanism of 0.2% fines is similar to a parent who wants his or her son to stop stealing chocolates from the supermarket. So he punishes the son by telling him that instead of 500 chocolates, the son has to steal 501 chocolates (extra work) and give one of them to the parent. :-) Of course, the parent is an ethical person, so he or she won't eat the stolen chocolate. Instead, he or she will save it and give it to the son soon after he is caught by the police, when he already misses the taste of chocolate.

Again, the fiscal responsibility has nothing to do with some preposterous homeopathic fines and meaningless punishments. Much like in the case of smoking, it boils down to a semi-rational decision of the nations who see the advantages of spending too much (borrowed) money and who also see that the disadvantages of the debt are tolerable, to say the least, because someone is going to save them, anyway. They are obliged to, the people believe. Ask almost any Greek on the street (at least a year ago). If these key factors that determine the politicians' and voters' costs-and-benefits analysis and their subsequent behavior don't change, their behavior will also remain unlikely to change.

Apologies if I reveal an inconvenient truth but the fiscal responsibility arises and must arise from the fear that the problems caused by too much debt will make someone's life much worse than the current life - even the current life when no money is borrowed. If there's no fear of such a negative change, there's no responsibility. After all, that's true about most other kinds of responsibility, too. And be sure that there's no reason to be scared by some 0.2% of a number that is added to some abstract paperwork that affects no one. At least, the Greek pensioners are rational enough to (correctly) determine that there's no reason to be afraid of such things in the present arrangement.

DJIA - Long Term Chart



Here is a perspective on the current rally in the context of a longer-term chart of DJIA.  Not shown is a major BUY signal in 1981, briefly reversed by the 1987 market crash, but back LONG in 1989 for a 12-year rally.  The EW analysis suggests that the next major move is a pretty significant decline once the current strength runs out.


A

Why Energy Efficiency Does not Decrease Energy Consumption

[NOTE: This is a guest post by Harry Saunders, cross-posted from The Breakthrough blog.]

Why Energy Efficiency Does not Decrease Energy Consumption

By Harry Saunders

I recently co-authored an article for the Journal of Physics ("Solid-state lighting: an energy-economics perspective" by Jeff Tsao, Harry Saunders, Randy Creighton, Mike Coltrin, Jerry Simmon, August 19, 2010) analyzing the increase in energy consumption that will likely result from new (and more efficient) solid-state lighting (SSL) technologies. The article triggered a round of commentaries and responses that have confused the debate over energy efficiency. What follows is my attempt to clarify the issue, and does not necessarily represent the views of my co-authors.

More Efficient Lighting Will Increase, Not Decrease, Energy Consumption

Our Journal of Physics article drew on 300 years of evidence to shows that, as lighting becomes more energy efficient, and thus cheaper, we use ever-more of it. The result, we note, is that "over the last three centuries, and even now, the world spends about 0.72% of its GDP on light. This was the case in the UK in 1700 (UK 1700), is the case in the undeveloped world not on grid electricity in modern times, and is the case for the developed world in modern times using the most advanced lighting technologies."

The implications of this research are important for those who care about global warming. In recent years, more efficient light bulbs have been widely viewed as an important step to reducing energy consumption and thus greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Moreover, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have produced analyses that assume energy efficiency technologies will provide a substantial part of the remedy for climate change by reducing global energy consumption approximately 30 percent -- a reduction nearly sufficient to offset projected economic growth-driven energy consumption increases.

Many have come to believe that new, highly-efficient, solid-state lighting -- generally LED technology, like that used on the displays of stereo consoles, microwaves, and digital clocks -- will result in reduced energy consumption. We find the opposite is true, concluding "that there is a massive potential for growth in the consumption of light if new lighting technologies are developed with higher luminous efficacies and lower cost of light."
The good news is that increased light consumption has historically been tied to higher productivity and quality of life. The bad news is that energy efficient lighting should not be relied upon as means of reducing aggregate energy consumption, and therefore emissions. We thus write: "These conclusions suggest a subtle but important shift in how one views the baseline consequence of the increased energy efficiency associated with SSL. The consequence is not a simple 'engineering' decrease in energy consumption with consumption of light fixed, but rather an increase in human productivity and quality of life due to an increase in consumption of light." This phenomenon has come to be known as the energy "rebound" effect.

The Empirical Evidence for Rebound

The findings of our SSL research inspired The Economist magazine to write a commentary about the study that was mostly correct but made a couple of errors, which we responded to in a letter. In our response, we clarified that energy prices would need to increase 12 percent, not three-fold, in order to reduce the consumption of electricity for lighting, which, to its credit, The Economist posted on its web site and published in its letters section.

Evans Mills of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory wrote on the Climate Progress blog that The Economist had "inverted" our findings. However, The Economist did not "invert" our findings, it had simply overstated an implication of them.

Efficiency advocates sometimes dismiss rebound by only looking at "direct" energy consumption -- that is, consumption by households and for private transportation. Examples of rebound in this part of the energy economy would be driving your Prius more because gasoline costs you very little, or turning up the thermostat in your efficient home. But these "direct-use" rebounds are small in comparison to "indirect-use" rebounds in energy consumption. Globally, some two-thirds of all energy is consumed indirectly-- in the energy used to produce goods and services. A residential washing machine may be energy efficient in terms of function, but in terms of production, the metal body alone requires energy to mine, smelt, stamp, coat, assemble and transport it to a dealer showroom and eventually a residential home. The energy embedded in your washing machine, or just about any product or service you consume, is very large. And remember that any money you save on your energy bills through efficient appliances or the like is re-spent on other goods and services, which each take energy to produce, all while more productive use of our money (e.g. in spending, savings and production) spurs a more robust economy, demanding even more energy.

As our recent SSL research suggests, there is strong empirical evidence that even in the "direct" part of the economy, the rebound effect can sometimes be so substantial as to eliminate essentially all energy reduction gains. But in my new research (which relies on a detailed, theoretically rigorous econometric analysis of real data), the rebound effect found in the larger "indirect" part of the economy is even more significant -- and more worrisome.
Varying degrees of rebound occur because the phenomenon works in several ways. Increasingly efficient technologies effectively lower the cost of energy, as well as the products and services in which it is embedded. This results in firms consuming more energy relative to other production inputs and producing more output profitably. Firms and individuals benefit from cheaper and more abundant products and services, causing them to find many more uses for these (and the energy they contain). A more efficient steel plant, for example, produces cheaper steel that, in turn, allows firms and individuals to afford to find more uses for the same material.

While some find the notion that increased energy efficiency increases energy consumption to be counter-intuitive, the economic theory is remarkably commonsensical. Mills claims that the idea that the rebound effect "has been postulated in theory but never shown empirically to be significant" is not the case. After many years, rebound theory has advanced to the point that it is now a reliable foundation for empirical study and the empirical evidence firmly suggests rebound exists. And remember that the "rebound effect" for other factors of production is expected, even welcomed; economists have long expected labor productivity improvements to drive even greater economic activity, for example, thus increasing demand for labor and creating new employment opportunities in the economy as a whole, even as efficient production may eliminate a handful of jobs at one factory.

The Implications of Rebound

There are significant potential implications of high levels of rebound. One is that greater energy efficiency may be a net positive in increasing economic productivity and growth but should not be relied upon as a way to reduce energy consumption and thus greenhouse gas emissions. Particularly in a world where many billions lack sufficient access to modern energy services, efficient technologies such as solid-state lighting may be central to uplifting human dignity and improving quality of life through much of the world. One might even argue that energy efficiency is still important from a climate perspective, because when efficiency leads to greater economic growth, societies will be better able and more willing to invest in more expensive but cleaner energy sources. But in this way energy efficiency is no different from other strategies for increasing economic growth. What should be reconsidered is the assumption that energy efficiency results in a direct, net decrease in aggregate energy consumption when there is a growing body of research suggesting the opposite.

Dr. Harry Saunders has a B.S. in Physics from the University of Alberta, an M.S. in Resources Planning from the University of Calgary, and a Ph.D. in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford University. Saunders coined the "Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate" in 1992 to describe macro-economic theories of energy rebound, and has published widely on energy economics, evolutionary biology, and legal theory. He can be reached at: hsaunders@decisionprocessesinc.com.

Empty Debate and Climate Attack Dogs

Earlier this week, Andrew Turnbull, who was Cabinet Secretary under Tony Blair, had an op-ed in the Financial Times stating his views on the need for the climate science community to rebuild trust.  Lord Turnbull's essay, written under his byline as a trustee of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, is fair and generally unremarkable.

He writes:
To restore trust, it was essential that the government, parliament, the University of East Anglia and the Royal Society should respond quickly to get to the truth. They set up three inquiries but did those inquiries resolve the issues? A report by Andrew Montford for the Global Warming Policy Foundation shows serious flaws in the inquiries, which it says were marred by the failure to ensure independence in the panel members; by the refusal to take account of critical views; and by the failure to probe some serious allegations.

The result has been that the three investigations have failed to achieve their objective: conclusive restoration of confidence. In The Atlantic, Clive Crook of the Financial Times referred to “an ethos of suffocating group think”. That is exactly what the GWPF report revealed, with the investigators almost as much part of the group as the scientists.

The UK’s new parliamentary committee on science and technology needs to look again at how the inquiries were conducted to see if the exoneration claimed is merited. The government then needs to look at the serious criticisms of the IPCC made in the recent InterAcademy Council Report.
Reasonable people can certainly debate whether or not the various UK inquiries succeeded in restoring confidence or not, and whether or not it would make sense for the new UK government to reopen these issues.  My judgment is that the inquiries did not go very far in restoring trust among many, but at the same time, this situation does not justify a new set of investigations.  At this stage, these are issues for the scientific community to deal with, not governments.  So I disagree with Lord Turnbull's conclusions.

In a letter printed in today's FT, Bob Ward, a public relations specialist at the London School of Economics seeks to counter Lord Turnbull's arguments.  The manner in which he chooses to do so illustrates how it is that debate over climate change has devolved to comical farce.  The entirety of Ward's objections to Turnbull's arguments are that the GWPF has a flawed logo on its website and that Ward is unaware of GWPF funding sources.

I agree that the GWPF logo is flawed and my own policy views run counter to those of the GWPF.  However, my judgments about trust in climate science have nothing to do with the GWPF choice of logos or their funding source.  Even if they had a brilliant logo and money provided by Jeremy Grantham (whose generosity pays Mr. Ward's salary), I'd judge their policy recommendations as being flawed.  Ward insults FT readers by suggesting that they should judge Turnbull's arguments not on their merits but by irrelevant distractions.  Such is the state of climate debate in many quarters these days.

Ward's frequent efforts to reduce debate over climate change to tabloid-style mud wrestling is symptomatic of a debate that has lost touch with what matters.  It is remarkable to me that an institution of higher learning such as LSE would hire a spin doctor to systematically engage in attacking reputations across the blogoosphere and letter pages of newspapers.  Of course, when Bob does rarely engage in a public, scholarly debate, he is cordial and the attacks disappear.  I am unaware of anyone playing an analogous PR "attack dog" role in a US academic context.

You Are Invited to an Invitation-Only Event

On October 11 in Washington, DC I will participate in a conversation with Bryan Walsh, of Time magazine at the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes.  Drinks and snacks will be served.  The event is "invitation only" but the organizers have said that it is OK for me to invite readers of this blog in the DC area to attend.  You need only RSVP to events@thebreakthrough.org in order to secure a seat.

The event is co-sponsored by the Breakthrough Institute; Third Way; Yale Environment 360; the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at Arizona State University; the Said Business School at the University of Oxford; The Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado, Boulder; and the School of Communication at American University.

Details follow in the flyer below:

What's new in hematology from UpToDate

35% of UpToDate topics are updated every four months. The editors select a small number of the most important updates and share them via "What's new" page. I selected the brief excerpts below from What's new in hematology:

Transplantation in aplastic anemia

In patients with severe aplastic anemia over the age of 40 who received allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation from an HLA-identical sibling, overall survival was 65 percent.

Improved survival when rituximab is added to fludarabine plus cyclophosphamide in CLL

There were higher response rates and survival with six courses of FCR (fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab) when compared with six courses of FC (fludarabine, cyclophosphamide).

Second generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) for CML

Trials comparing dasatinib or nilotinib to imatinib for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) demonstrated faster and deeper responses with these second generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

Improved understanding of pathobiology of multiple myeloma

Virtually all multiple myeloma (MM) cases are preceded by a premalignant plasma cell proliferative disorder known as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). The pathobiology of myeloma as a two-step process - first there is the establishment of a limited stage of clonal proliferation (MGUS); then there is progression of MGUS to MM.

Denileukin diftitox superior to placebo for relapsed mycosis fungoides

There were better response rates with the recombinant interleukin-2-diphtheria toxin fusion protein denileukin diftitox used for therapy of mycosis fungoides and Sezary syndrome.

Survival in sickle cell disease

The estimated survival at 18 years is now 94 percent for those with HbSS or HbS/beta(0) thalassemia and 98 percent for those with HbSC or HbS/beta(+) thalassemia.

References:
What's new in hematology. UpToDate.

Energy efficiency increases energy consumption

Many people think that if we switch to more energy-efficient light bulbs or TVs (e.g. LED lighting, LED TV, and so on) and other energy-efficient technologies, the total consumption will decrease.

Some people even believe in a kind of proportionality: if the same activities will only consume N times less energy, where N is a coefficient greater than one, then we will consume N times less energy in the future.

This is preposterous, of course. Andrew Revkin has pointed out that one of the co-authors of a recent study, Harry Saunders, has just clarified their paper about this issue:
Why Energy Efficiency Does not Decrease Energy Consumption (Breakthrough Institute)
I would classify the Breakthrough Institute as a relatively sensible and technologically loaded organization that nevertheless promotes left-wing values and utopias.

The essential effect is that if some gadgets that consume energy become more efficient, the people also have to pay less for the energy, and they can afford more of it. Alternatively, they may also afford other activities that consume energy. Clearly, if the "average" or "aggregate" efficiency increases N times, the total amount of consumed energy will be greater than 1/N of the current energy consumption - because of the stimulated extra consumption.




However, Saunders says something stronger: the actual consumption may actually increase - and in fact, it is the likelier answer. There are many effects and characteristics of the places that consume energy that you have to appreciate.

You have to divide the "direct consumption" and "indirect consumption". The direct consumption refers to the consumption by the gadgets when they're actually used by the end user (such as TV in your living room); the indirect consumption refers to the energy consumption when they're produced (e.g. in Panasonic factory in Pilsen). The indirect consumption is about 2/3 of the total consumption - and the "rebound effect" is more significant for the indirect energy, he says.

Well, you may also imagine lots of activities near the "threshold" which are only activated when the efficiency becomes "good enough" - only at this point, they may become "profitable". Once they surpass this threshold, their abundance will explode, of course. For example, many people in the third world would find light bulbs a waste of money because the energy is expensive. If the efficiency increases above - or energy prices drop below - a certain threshold, you may suddenly see whole nations that start to do certain things that depend on energy.

Obviously, all this evolution is good for the living standards.

It's not good for those who think that the energy production itself is a problem. These arguments about the "rebound effect" - that may be counter-intuitive for some people but that are actually the economic incarnation of common sense - show that it makes no sense for them to promote energy efficiency.

All these arguments are nice and people will probably agree about them at some moment. However, what Saunders et al. don't discuss is an actual intent of those who want to force the world to consume less energy. What is it?

Well, these people may promote more efficient light bulbs and other things. But once the "average" efficiency of the current "basket of energy-consuming processes" increases N times, where N is a coefficient greater than one, they may say: you see, the efficiency is up, so it is natural for the energy prices to go up N times, too. Obviously, if the energy efficiency goes up N times and the energy prices go up N times, then everyone will probably spend the same money for the same amount of fun that requires fun.

The increase of the energy price may be realized as an extra tax - that the promoters of the "forced reductions of consumption" will simply insert into their pockets and use for whatever they consider "proper" - usually for throwing it into the lavatory, as I will argue later. As the energy efficiency will keep on increasing, they will use the argument above to steal an ever greater portion of our money. This is the actual threat we are facing.

How does it differ from the situation in which the energy taxes are not increasing - and in which we have argued that the aggregate energy consumption will go up? The difference is simple. In the "free market" situation, the energy price won't go up, and the money that is saved by the increased efficiency will be spent by the actual people, according to their desires. Their spending will be different than the spending chosen by the self-appointed "saviors of the world" who believe that they have the right to steal any amount of money from you in order to "save the planet". In particular, the "real people" will spend the money for lots of things that require energy, too.

So the difference boils down to the question whether the people themselves - or self-appointed bureaucrats - decide what is good for the people and how the money should be spent. Needless to say, if it is the bureaucrats who decide, they will always be willing to waste your money for an arbitrarily absurd project. They will build solar power plants and wind turbines under the ground just in order to make the energy even more expensive. They don't care whether their decisions make any economic sense.

This has consequences. If someone else decides what to do with an increasingly large portion of your money, then you rightfully feel that you are actually not earning the money. The money that you "really earn" is the money that you can spend - whose fate you can decide about. Such a reduction of the correlation between people's desires and their work leads to a reduced will for them to work. Many more of them will depend on the welfare program, and so on. A typical socialist vicious circle.

If you imagined a hypothetical world where the CO2 production causes problems - it's not our world - the right approach would be to quantify how much "harm" a ton of CO2 makes (instead of insanely trying to plan the macroscopic future of mankind and the total emissions in the year 2100), and just ask the CO2 producers to pay this amount - essentially a fixed number of dollars per ton, and allow them and their emissions to do whatever they will do given this fair contract. The money collected "for the harm" in this way would be used to "fight against the problem" or, more reasonably, to help the "victims" (Nature or humans) to adapt.

If you designed the world in this fair way, it would still be true that the increases of energy efficiency would lead to an increased consumption. Shouldn't the price of CO2 indulgences increase along the way? I don't think so. The effects of one ton of CO2 on Nature don't increase with the human consumption or wealth. And the effects of one ton of CO2 on one human obviously decrease as the human becomes wealthier.

So whatever your price per ton of CO2 will be, it will become easier for the people and companies to pay it as the efficiency goes up. In any system that works "fairly", it will still be true that the increases of energy efficiency will lead to increases in energy consumption. That's called the human progress - and the progress is the actual problem that the environmentalists dislike.

And that's the memo.





Today in Paris, Škoda introduced its new electric car based on Škoda Octavia Combi - which has enough space for the heavy, 315-kilogram batteries that may swallow 26.5 kWh. It takes 8 hours to charge it from 230 V grid and 4 hours from a 400 V grid. Once you charge, you may drive for 140 km by speeds up to 135 kph. From 0 to 100 kph, it takes 12 seconds to accelerate.

The car will only be produced once it's ready from all viewpoints - in 3-4 years. Škoda E Greenline abandons most of the features introduced with Škoda Henlein such as the gas chamber. ;-)

Because this article was about efficiency, Škoda has also shown the 2nd generation of its efficient, "Greenline" Superb and Yeti vehicles.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Islamization of London England (as bad as Paris)



Islamization of London England by french journalists
England tired of the situation
With Englis Subtitles (September 2010)
www.englishdefenceleague.org

German Insurer Apologizes for Citing Koran to Refuse Claim (Surprise!)

A German insurance company got into trouble for citing the Koran in its refusal to compensate a Muslim accident victim for the cost of hiring a maid. Muslim men leave the housework to their wives, a clerk for the Gothaer insurance firm argued. The company has apologized.

A Muslim immigrant in Germany who asked his insurance firm to cover the costs of a maid while he recovered from a serious accident had his claim rejected on the grounds that according to his religion, husbands don't do the housework anyway.


Via  sheikyermami.

Warning of new terrorist attacks from 'diverse groups'

I'd like to thank ABC News (?) for digging deep to let us know diverse groups of terrorists possibly linked to Al-Qaeda may be planning a terrorist attack according to a captured 'German'.  

Only thing missing is the 'I' word and the 'M' word - you know what they are; so do the five 'journalists' in the byline yet it goes unmentioned. 

Perhaps these journalists are in fear of some kind of, uh, backlash, from that particular group. What a bunch of moronic pc dhimmi's!


as reported:

US and European officials said Tuesday they have detected a plot to carry out a major, coordinated series of new terror attacks in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and possibly the United States.


"... based on the interrogation of a suspected German terrorist..."

"...officials say they have been told the terrorists were planning a series of "Mumbai-style" commando raids..."


"...increased activity by a more diverse set of groups..."


"The captured German reportedly..."

 "US intelligence officials said they believed an attack on American soil was more likely to come from terrorists connected to the al Qaeda group..."


ABC link here.

Dust up with pro-mosquer's and Pam Geller: Roll Tape!

 Particularly nasty exchange at the start and catch the weasel at the end.

Obama angry because Fox News might inform Americans ...

 ... about his continuing plans to destroy the the country!

"It's a point of view that I disagree with," Mr. Obama said in the interview. "It's a point of view that I think is ultimately destructive for the long-term growth of a country that has a vibrant middle class and is competitive in the world."


Asshole!

The last thing Obummer and his minions want is a middle class. 


Where and What is the Reality of Obama?

A commentary on the motivations and behavior of Barrack Hussein Obama in the countdown to the Mid-terms elections.

El Taqiyya Presidente By R.J. Godlewski

 When a person falls into love, their feeling of passion and euphoria exists from the production of dopamine, a neurotransmitter that boosts the individual’s sensation of exhilaration for a period not normally exceeding twenty-four months in duration. After this euphoria wears thin, oxytocin kicks in and the person acquiesces to a period of warmth and “connection” with their object of affection. The problem exists, whenever we find ourselves in love that we mature through a gullibility phase during which we tend to overlook the failures and frailties of our obsession. For about two full years, we still see a “queen” or “king” of the prom before reality reminds us that we have often fallen in love with the court jester instead.

(...)


The 2010 midterm elections appear just around the corner and after nearly two years of the Obama presidency, the nation’s dopamine intoxication is finally wearing off. Voters in droves are beginning to see through the euphoric clouds that denied them an opportunity to observe President Barack Hussein Obama for what the man really is.

(...)
Could al-Taqiyya enable an American president to consciously destroy his nation while bending over backwards to appease Islam? Absolutely. Is it being done at the present? 

Read the entire article at Right Truth

Vindication of Craig Loehle

F.C. Ljungqvist has published a new climate reconstruction from the birth of Jesus Christ to the present:
Ljungqvist, F.C. 2010.
A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical northern hemisphere during the last two millenia.
Geografiska Annaler 92A(3):339-351.
Here for $43, sorry (free abstract)
On Anthony Watts' blog, Craig Loehle argues that the paper is a vindication of his 2007 tree-less reconstruction in E&E. You don't need a 20-20 vision to see that the two (or three) are strikingly similar:


The data in TXT are here (FTP)

This is Lungqvist. Recall that the older Moberg (up) and Loehle (down) reconstructions looked like this:



In all the graphs, you see a pretty much linear warming up to the year 1000 AD or so (at least a few centuries before the year 1000 AD), followed by a linear cooling up to the year 1700 AD, followed by a linear warming up to the present. It's kind of interesting that the oscillating graphs are more similar to piecewise linear functions than the sines although the sines may look "more natural" to many of us.

None of the three graphs looks like a hockey stick. None of them paints the 20th century temperature dynamics as unprecedented.

There are some detailed differences between the three reconstructions, too. However, the agreement between Loehle and Ljungqvist in the years 900-2000 AD give r=0.85, a very high coefficient. It becomes worse if you try to go before the year 900. Of course, the further you go, the worse the agreement becomes.




However, fearmonger Grant Tamino Foster has raised an interesting objection. The first step in the comparison of the two graphs - that led Dr Loehle to conclude that a "vindication" has just been published - was that he shifted both graphs to have a vanishing long-term average.

Without a loss of generality, we may then talk about anomalies that are calculated as differences from the overall average temperature.

However, if you allow me to make Tamino's formulations more comprehensible, Tamino argues that the two temperature graphs should have been compared differently - namely by making their reconstructions of the "recent years" coincide (instead of making the long-term average coincide). These two procedures differ by a relative shift of the two graphs in the direction of the y-axis.

Tamino's objection sounds superficially reasonable because both Lungqvist and Loehle "know" what the temperatures did in the thermometer era, don't they? But is Tamino really right?

Even if he were right, it's clear that if you want to compare the detailed wiggles and time derivatives at various historical points in the past, it would be reasonable to try to match the graphs as closely as possible, so Loehle's step would be justified for this purpose, anyway. (You could also draw the derivatives and compare the graphs of the derivatives.)

But imagine that you really want to compare the whole reconstructions, and not just the character of the changes, by the most canonical "summed squared differences" method. If that's your goal, is Dr Loehle's first step justified?

This question may be asked differently: when you reconstruct the temperatures from the era of Jesus Christ, do you actually reconstruct the temperatures in °C at every point in the past, or do you just reconstruct these temperatures up to an unknown overall temperature shift?

Well, I think that the right answer is the latter. The reconstructions only reconstruct some kind of "temperature anomalies" (from the boreholes and other things you may imagine) but the overall additive shift in the y-direction remains unknown.

(Jeff Id has made a related point.)

So if you want to compare the anomalies reconstructed by the two reconstructions, and they're the only quantities that they really imply, you should minimize the deviation over possible relative temperature shifts in the y-direction - which is equivalent to requiring that the long-term averages of both graphs match.

I think that the idea that all the graphs of the reconstructions should be aligned in the instrumental period is - while not quite obviously flawed - an artifact of the hockey stick reasoning. Why?

Well, it's because if you use some non-thermometer data to reconstruct the past temperatures, your answers will differ from the actual temperatures. But what's important is that this is true even for the temperatures that you reconstruct in the instrumental period. So you must allow the errors of your reconstruction to be considered nonzero even in the instrumental period.

The hockey stick reasoning is equivalent to the denial the non-thermometer reconstructions may produce errors even in the thermometer era (and be sure that they do, especially if you look at the divergence problem etc.).

In this sense, I believe that Loehle's procedure of the comparison of the two reconstructions is valid even if you care about all the additive shifts that can actually be extracted from your reconstructions: one overall additive shift of the temperature is not reconstructed.

Of course, if you focus on some particular questions - such as the difference between the temperatures in the years 1000 AD and 2000 AD, and you compare these differences between Lungqvist and Loehle - you may get relatively large differences between the two reconstructions. However, this is a cherry-picked question. The years 1000 AD and 2000 AD have been cherry-picked.

If you want to compare the whole functions that follow from the reconstructions, you should sum the squared differences over the whole interval - but before you do so, you should first make the averages of both graphs to match because the overall additive shifts are not really implied by the procedures.

What do you think?

At any rate, I think it would be interesting to make pairwise comparisons between all these reconstructions - their correlations and other quantities. I don't have an easy access to all the data from the reconstructions so I can't turn this straightforward task into reality right now. Can you?