Friday, August 20, 2010

Energy Stocks

In keeping with our sector theme, below are some energy-related ideas across different time frames to illustrate how trends can make great swing trading vehicles regardless of time horizons. 

OXY_Weekly Trend Model

Occidental  Petroleum will always have a place in my heart.  It was the summer of 1978 and I was on vacation in Chilmark, Martha's Vineyard.  During a rare bout with sobriety I purchased some OXY options that  tripled in value in the ten days I was on holiday.  This was a time before personal computers, cell phones, or instant quotes, just me, a transistor radio on the nude beach, a dial-up phone at the cottage and a Merrill Lynch broker in Atlanta.  The birth of a career, a passion and a new found respect for lucidity even when all those around you are crumbling into chaos and debauchery.

SCO_Daily Trend Model

The investment will seek to replicate, net of expenses, twice the inverse daily performance of the Dow Jones AIG Crude Oil Sub-Index. 
Note the pattern of whips-saws followed by huge percentage gains.  Discipline and money management are all that need be added to this model.


 SCO_15 Trend Model

Although I don't presently trade this 15 minute model, the chart makes a compelling case for doing so.  


Market Notes 

I am not going to use the C word today, but the elements are building and I'll likely be going into a more detailed evaluation of the potential in my Weekend Update.