Sunday, January 21, 2007

Peer-reviewed global cooling

Bonus: Dozens of blog articles about dozens of recent scientific papers that disagree with the so-called "consensus".
A large portion of physicists in Russia, especially solar physicists, have reached a "scientific consensus" - as others would call it - that the Earth will enter a period of global cooling in a couple of years and the temperatures will drop to the minimum sometime in the middle of this century.
Bonus: 2007 was the coldest year of the 21st century so far
If they're right, a period of deep freeze will start around 2055-2060 and last for 50 years or so. These predictions are based on a detailed analysis of internal dynamics of the Sun. 2007 is the International Heliophysical Year so you're not supposed to dismiss this science without reading it. Unfortunately, I cannot verify all these statements.

In the West, it has become popular for many activists such as Naomi Oreskes to claim that there is no peer-reviewed literature that contradicts the fashionable theory of the so-called global warming. Well, that's very far from reality as everyone who is familiar with basic research directions in this field knows very well. Whether or not we think that all these papers are right or not, it's a fact that there is even peer-reviewed literature that argues that we're gonna experience global cooling.

Because problems with similar statements are being looked for about 1,000 times more intensely by certain groups than problems with their own statements, I must offer you several links that would otherwise be unnecessary. ;-)

"Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies" is a peer-reviewed journal that Springer translates from Ukrainian together with other journals in Russian (thanks for the correction, Gene!): click the Springer link, read the first sentence, and find the title of the journal. ;-) An article by Habibullo I. Abdussamatov in this journal published in 12/2005 discusses some of these solar cycles that are relevant for the climate. You may prefer another text about similar topics in conference proceedings published by Cambridge University Press. Other sources where similar articles were written include
  • Bulletin of Crimea Observatory Vol. 103, pp. 122-127, 2006
  • Proceedings of the All-Russian Conference in Troitsk, Izmiran, pp. 3-8, 2006

It's not just theoretical papers that are dedicated to these questions and explanations.

is a project to measure the temporary variations of the shape and the diameter on the Russian segment of the International Space Station. The pages belong to the Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Pulkovo.




If you want to see how data about longer solar cycles is exctracted, see Nagovitsyn 2001. If you are already tired of Russian papers - the Russian Academy of Sciences opposed Kyoto protocol as scientifically ungrounded so the whole nation must be composed of ExxonMobil stooges, after all - you may prefer recent Western articles, see Renssen et al. 2006. The title says a lot about the dominant mechanisms:

  • Coupled climate model simulation of Holocene cooling events: solar forcing triggers oceanic feedback

I guess you believe me that I could list lots of papers analyzing the sunspots. But most of them surely don't contradict global warming, do they? A global warming inquisitor would say that a heretic would have to find a recent peer-reviewed paper - from 2007 or later - that explicitly says that we will see cooling in the next 20 years. And it must say so in the title if the heretic wants to be treated as a human being at least for 3 seconds. ;-)

Well, the inquisitor should have been much more careful! A 2007 paper in Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (Springer) is called

  • Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years

Thanks to Timo Hämeranta for a message that included many more links and papers.

See also

Additional frequently viewed climate articles on The Reference Frame
at 7:01 AM
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