Tuesday, October 19, 2010

US Dollar - UUP

The US Dollar is inversely correlated to most markets.  Thus a rise in the dollar correlates to a drop in stocks, gold and anything else that is priced in dollars.  Lets take a look at a chart of UUP, the bullish ETF for the dollar:


UUP Daily Trend Model

Five waves down, a break-out gap above the trend regression channel and an imminent LONG signal from the trend model.  If UUP runs back to just the late August high at $24.22, it gains 7.00%.  But, with minimal premium on UUP calls, a 7.00% rise will likely generate triple digit gains on in-the-money call options, subject only to the call's expiration month.  I wouldn't look at any expiration closer then December, but next March might make the best cents (sorry)  giving plenty of time for the dollar and UUP to turn up and run.

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