The path ahead

I post a lot of charts and trading ideas, some better then others and through it all we can easily lose sight of the bigger picture.  I shared some Weekly Trend Models with subscribers earlier this weekend and emphasized how important these charts were for the general path ahead. 

Here are three Weekly Trend Models all sharing the same pattern, characteristics and implications for the remaining months of 2010:

This isn't all that complicated.  The 6% pop in July notwithstanding, these markets topped out earlier this year and completed an initial wave lower.  Over July, that decline has been partially retraced. I put the Fibonacci retracement levels on the middle, SPX chart.  Although the retracement could go higher, it has fulfilled traditional price retracement behavior and the dominant trend, DOWN, can resume at any time. 

This fact has not gone unnoticed by the Trend Models, all of which require significant price strength before they can reverse back LONG.  The Daily Trend Models reversed LONG right after the July 4th weekend and remain LONG going into August.  Once the Daily Trend Models reverse SHORT, it's all over.  Of the three models shown above, the NASDAQ is the closest to reversing SHORT on its Daily chart and I expect that it will lead the other two indexes, if and when those reversals occur.

If the unlikely happens and these Weekly Models reverse LONG, then I will too.  Unless and until that happens, the big picture scenario is that of a fledgling downtrend that has taken a summer break and appears ready to resume it's path lower.


A

The Honest Broker

Among a few climate scientists there is a renewed interest in discussing my book The Honest Broker. To be honest I don't really understand their specific critiques but I think they can be summarized as follows:

1. Scientists should not be in the business of giving policy makers choices (that is, the role of the honest broker of policy options is not desirable), because it gives cover to policy makers who might do the wrong thing.

2. Science dictates a specific course of action, thus to present science to policy makers necessarily compels a particular course of action, rendering advocacy and indeed political give and take, unnecessary.

Needless to say I find both of these positions highly problematic -- from practical and democratic perspectives. This post is for any questions or discussions about the book.

UPDATE 7/31: Over at the discussion of my book hosted by climate scientist Michael Tobis, Tobis presents a clear statement of authoritarianism:

On complex matters which have significant objective and normative components, those opinions which are informed by expertise should carry more weight in decisions than opinions which are not well informed. The more complex the matter at hand, the more weight should be given to expertise and the less it should account for value-driven decisions that are likely to be ill-informed.

Wow. And scary.

Not what it seems: Desert Island

Not what it seems: Desert Island (click to enlarge the image). The obvious is sometimes hidden - this often applies to clinical evaluation of patients and research.

References:
http://xkcd.com/731

Math App Saturday (#3, Rush Hour & Think Fun products)

Saturday series on using educational apps for iTouch/iPhone/iPad continues with Rush Hour, a game that delves into puzzles and problem solving.

Rush Hour
An electronic version of the popular sliding block logic puzzle, Rush Hour "tracks your moves and compares them to the shortest, most efficient path possible.  When you solve the challenge in more than the minimum, you get challenged to do better… to keep playing until you get a PERFECT SCORE."

The free game has four levels: easy, medium, hard, expert... with 10 games on each of the first three levels and 5 games on the last.

Rush Hour is particularly good for spatial awareness and encourages players to look for patterns, a key "ingredient" to building mathematical thinking skills.

This game impressed me enough that I spent some time perusing the company website, Think Fun. On the website you can access a page on "How we use Rush Hour in Schools to Teach Thinking Skills." Downloadable teaching resources for Rush Hour are also available. You can print game boards and cut out vehicles for additional challenges.

The Think Fun website offers additional games and teaching resources. In my opinion, they live up to their "Think FUN" name:

Chocolate Fix
Players must place candies on a tray, deducing which chocolate (with which attribute) goes in which location. It is an "exercise in deductive reasoning, and players become more effective as they acquire strategies that support their reasoning process."  An on-line version of the game is posted here. Many lesson plans are also available, free.

Math Dice are games using a particular selection of dice (that I suppose you could independently purchase if you don't own the product...or, if you're like me, you already have a variety of numbered dice in your math cupboard.) Instructions are available in pdf form for games at several levels of challenge.

ThinkFun also has its own educational forum. Educators talk about innovative ways they've used the games.

Have FUN trying it all out! ;)

Disclaimer: I've only tried the free apps and the on-line games. ThinkFun has a lot of educational games/products available, but I haven't tried any but the free ones so far. I have no company ties. Bummer. 'Cause they're pretty cool! ;)

GIVEAWAY - The Great Camping Event - Day 6

It's Day 6 and time for a giveaway! Remember on Day 3 when I reviewed The Girls' Guide to Campfire Activities? Well I contacted Cider Mill Press and they agreed to offer a book for giveaway!

So I have one copy of the book to anyone in North America. You can enter by filling in the form below. You can NOT enter by commenting so comments have been turned off.

GIVEAWAY CLOSED

VXX

Here is a chart of the VXX_240 Trend Model.  A friend of mine trades VXX exclusively because of what he considers it's very predictable behavior characteristics.  You can see the potential on the chart, three very good trades just using this model:

Notice the spikes higher in recent days, all followed by sideways consolidation, with each spike up making a new high.

If an extended back test supports it, I'll start reporting on this model in the subscription service.  An edge is an edge, no matter what the symbol.


A

Man City's New Signing

Enjoy the above and have a nice weekend to all!

Children's Camping Books - The Great Camping Event - Day 5

It's Day 5 already! I hope you've been enjoying it. Be sure to check out the guest post at Callista's Ramblings today from Melissa of Librarian's Book Reviews.

The Berenstain Bears Go To Camp by Stan & Jan Berenstain

Stars: ****

Summary: Brother and Sister are going to Grizzly Bob's day camp. They make crafts, play games, go swimming and do all sorts of fun stuff. But is Sister ready for an overnight?

I love all Berenstain bear books. I've also seen the TV episode of this story. I think I prefer the cartoon more as it focuses more on Sister's reluctance to camp overnight then the book does. They are both good though. It would be a good introductory book to kids 4-8 who are going to camp.

Links of Interest: The Berenstain Bears Website,

Other Reviews: NONE

Buy The Berenstain Bears Go To Camp at amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews

Subtracting with Sebastian Pig and Friends On a Camping Trip by Jill Anderson

Stars: ***

Summary: Learn substraction while reading about camping!

While the idea for the book is a good idea, I don't think it was executed as well as it could have been. There's nothing really wrong with it, but usually math picture book try to hide the math a bit more.

e.g.

Putting Up the Tent

It's time to put up the tent. Where are the pegs to hold it down? There should be four pegs. But there are only two. How many are missing?

4-2=2
(illustration of 4 pegs with 2 crossed out)

Fact Family: 2+2=4

In a little illustrated notebook  it shows the math problem and also shows any related math problems with those numbers. For example if 3-2=1 is shown, the little notebook shows 3-1=2, 1+2=3 and 2+1=3.

For kids who love math, this would be a good book. But if they are reluctant in math, they may snub there nose at it.

Links of Interest: NONE

Other Reviews: NONE YET

Buy Subtracting with Sebastian Pig and Friends On a Camping Trip at amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews

Edge

A simple trend line can expose a lot of truth about any market, index, etf or stock.  That is the concept underlying this Nasdaq_240m Trading Model:

True to the creed of this methodology, the less written the better.  Still, I can't help but point out that we are looking only for an edge in our trading.

edge 

 *A penetrating, incisive quality: "His simplicity sets off the satire, and gives it a finer edge" (William Hazlitt).

 *A margin of superiority; an advantage: a slight edge over the opposition.

A

The Value of YouTube Videos for Cancer Patients - Mayo Clinic

Ruben Mesa, M.D., describes his experience using YouTube videos to provide in-depth information about blood cancers.

The Sibley Guide to Trees - The Great Camping Event - Day 4

It's Day Four of The Great Camping Event! I promise there will be a giveaway soon!

Stars: *****

Summary: A guide to identifying North American Trees.

The Sibley Guide is the best tree guide I've ever seen. Topics include: getting started at identifying trees, what is a tree, taxonomy, tree size, maps, habitat, tree conservation, tree identification (by leaves, flowers, fruit, twigs, buds and bark,) and a guide to each tree group (Including but not limited to Pine, Cypress, Laurel, Walnut, Birch, Beech, Willow, Hemp, Cashew, Dogwood, and much, much more.)

Most guides don't include enough information on HOW to identify the trees but just on what each tree looks like. I used the book to identify some trees although I already know some of them. The illustrations of flowers and leaves and bark are very real with colour and detail. They almost look like real photographs.

I don't have permission to reprint any pages but if you search Google Images for the book, you can see some samples pages.

Highly Recommended for all tree lovers.

Links of Interest: The Sibley Guides, Video on how the author wrote the book,

Other Reviews: NONE YET

Buy The Sibley Guide to Trees at amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews

Michael Oppenheimer Responds

[Michael Oppenheimer of Princeton University has graciously offered this post in response to several comments made earlier this week on his recent PNAS paper on climate change and Mexico-US immigration. His contribution is much appreciated. -RP]

Our article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration" by Shuaizhang Feng, Alan B. Krueger, and Michael Oppenheimer“, has drawn criticism in this blog. Before we respond in detail, let us point out that the problem of climate-driven migration has resisted quantitative analysis for decades. To contribute to filling this gap, we proposed a line of modeling drawing on empirical evidence about responses to past climate variations, which may be informative about responses to future climate trends. If others have better ideas for estimating how climate change affects migration, they should publish them.

Richard Tol argues that our paper “confuses decadal weather variability with climate change”. We were not confused and I doubt anyone who read the entire article would be confused either. Using the response to historical short term variability to estimate the response to a long term trend is a common first approximation in climate impact analysis when quantitative process-based information is lacking, such as for the processes underlying the immigration response. We state in the paper,

“Such a method implicitly assumes that the response to changes in the climate variables is linear and symmetric, and that migration responses to 5-y changes in climate conditions can be applied to longer run trends. We acknowledge that, in actuality, the response to a trend may differ from the response to periodic variability...”

... particularly because climatic variability during the study period has not been of a magnitude or duration comparable to what is projected in the future under various climate scenarios.

Richard further argues that the study

“fails to control for other determinants of migration that may well be correlated with weather during the sample.”

First, in terms of estimation, our approach (fixed effects IV) controls all time-unvarying state effects through state dummies, and addresses (controls for) other determinants of migration that are NOT correlated with climate through using climate as the instrument. If some of those determinants are correlated with changes in climate (other than fortuitously), then the estimated semi-elasticity would be affected, but we would be just attributing some of the impacts of climate on emigration through other channels to the crop yield channel (as the two cannot be separated anyway given the data).

Second, in term of prediction, we emphasize from the beginning that our study is a “ceteris paribus” one. In the language of economics, it is a “partial equilibrium”, not a “general equilibrium” study. The objective is to examine the “marginal” effect of climate change on migration, holding everything else constant, not to forecast the “total” number of emigrants in the future.

Finally, Tol states,

“they extrapolate beyond belief... their largest yield change is -48% between now and 2080. If technological progress would bring about a 1% yield increase per year, then the two effects cancel each other out. 1% may be too low, -48% is probably too high.”

We are careful to acknowledge the impact of other factors including technological progress in the paper:

“estimate of the elasticity of migration is conditional on many factors specific to Mexico for the period under study, such as the macroeconomic situation compared with that of the United States, the population share of youths (who are more likely to migrate), farming practices, the relative importance of the agricultural sector, and agricultural policies including responses to droughts and other climatic events that adversely affect crop yields.”

However, note that we are estimating the “marginal” effect of climate change. If technological change produces general increases in productivity and partially offsets effects of climate change, then predictions of “total” migrants would change, but the “marginal” effect of climate change would not.

With respect to the observation of Harrywr2 that at the upper end, our projections exceed the current size of the agricultural labor force: First, people not employed in the agricultural sector would also be affected by declines in crop yield, due to a well known and substantial “ripple effect”, and these would also be represented in our empirically determined semi-elasticity. Furthermore, the projection of between 1.4 to 6.7 million Mexicans migrating to the U.S. due to climate change applies to a 70-year time period. Thus, more than one generation would be affected.

Second, the projection is based on the assumption that Mexican adult population would stay at today’s level of 70 million. The projected numbers are significant but not necessarily “alarming” if they are put into the right context. The recent annual Mexican emigration flow to US is about 500,000. If in the future this is cut by half on average due to factors such as declines in fertility, to 250,000 emigrants, the total number emigrating due to all other causes would be 17.5 million in the 70 years.

...Michael Oppenheimer 28 July 2010

Father & Daughter

A trip to Sky Harbor Airport this morning and so ended a week's visit with my youngest daughter.  It's hard to focus on the stock market with tears in my eyes and sadness in my heart.    This time and place, the concert, the moment in our lives, will be forever chronicled in this simple photograph.  Some years from now, it will be pulled out and remembered.

I love you, sweetheart, I always will. 

I always will.

D

Math Game Review: Othello

We bought Othello last week and have played it every day since, usually multiple times a day. It's a game that my 7-year-old is asking to play -AND- a game that I enjoy because I find it every bit as challenging as he does. (A rare combination!)

The game is for two players. The object is to have the most discs on the board with your color turned up (discs are black on one side, white on the other). When you flank the discs of the other player, all the discs in that row are captured and are flipped over to reveal your color. It takes minutes to learn but the strategies involved are complex. I'm only beginning to figure it out. So far, we've learned that capturing corners and edges seems to be particularly important.

We played an app (iTouch/iPad/iPhone) version of the game called Tournament Reversi before we bought the board game. I found it extremely challenging. (If it's easy for you, please don't tell me!) The app helped us learn how the game works; however, I've found the board game to be better for strategizing. The app turns the pieces over so fast that it's hard to fully understand the effects of your move. With Othello, you have to turn the pieces yourself and clearly see the results...whether you like it or not. ;)

You can also try Reversi on-line. 

Educational ties: problem solving, spatial skills, logic

Disclaimer: I bought my own game and have no contact with the company that produces it. If you use the Amazon link to buy your own, I will make a few cents (at no cost to you.) My blog policy, however, is that I don't blog about things that I don't like. Our whole family is enjoying this. :)

The Nuclear Option

[UPDATE 7/29: Just one day later E&E News pours cold water on the nuclear option.]

E&E Daily Reports that the White House has floated the idea of adding cap & trade provisions to energy legislation in conference.

Cap-and-trade provisions that likely cannot pass the Senate directly this year could be added to a narrower energy package during a House and Senate conference, a White House spokesman suggested yesterday.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters he "certainly wouldn't rule it out" that a House-Senate conference committee would reconcile differing versions of energy legislation by adding climate provisions left out of a narrow package the Senate is expected to take up this week.

Gibbs said he does not think a climate bill is dead for the year, despite the decision by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to drop greenhouse gas emission limits from the scaled-back oil spill response and energy bill unveiled yesterday.

"The House passed a very strong and very comprehensive energy bill last year," Gibbs said. "The Senate is going to take up a version that is more scaled down but still has some important aspects, particularly dealing with how we deal with oil spills in the future. But I don't think that closes the door -- once a bill passes, each house doesn't close the door to having some sort of conference."

Briefly, here is what this means in the context of US congressional politics: when legislation is passed by the Senate and the House of Representatives, it often contains substantive differences. These differences are worked out by a small committee of members of Congress (called a "conference committee") from both chambers in what is called "conference."

Republicans are taking steps to prevent cap and trade from slipping into legislation through a back door. For reasons that I have already discussed, I don't see this effort getting very far, but I am surprised that the White House even raised it as a trial balloon. Maybe they are hoping to distract or otherwise confound the Republicans. If so, playing with bombs is a risky strategy.

Evaluation of driving risk in dementia - practice parameter update

For patients with dementia, the following characteristics are useful for identifying
patients at increased risk for unsafe driving:

- Clinical Dementia Rating scale (Level A)
- caregiver’s rating of a patient’s driving ability as marginal or unsafe (Level B)
- history of crashes or traffic citations (Level C)
- reduced driving mileage or self-reported situational avoidance (Level C)
- Mini-Mental State Examination scores of 24 or less (Level C)
- aggressive or impulsive personality characteristics (Level C)


Evaluation of driving risk in dementia (click to enlarge the image).

The following characteristics are not useful for identifying patients at increased risk for unsafe driving:

- patient’s self-rating of safe driving ability (Level A)
- lack of situational avoidance (Level C)

References:
Practice Parameter update: Evaluation and management of driving risk in dementia. Neurology 2010;74:1316–1324 (PDF)

Wound Closure Adhesive Strips

Walgreens Wound Closure Adhesive Strips: adhesive strips used to secure, close and support small cuts and wounds.

Girl's Guide to Campfire Activities and FollowThe Trail - The Great Camping Event - Day 3

 It's Day Three! I hope you've been enjoying the festivities so far. Be sure to check out what's going on at Callista's Ramblings too.

The Girls' Guide to Campfire Activities by Elizabeth Encarnacion

Stars: ***

Summary: Activities and fun for girls either at a real campfire and at home during a sleepover.

For girls having a real campfire, the book contains tips on building the perfect campfire and food to eat over it, songs to sing by it and stories to tell by it.  Can't have a real campfire? Pop in the bonus DVD for an instant fire in your living room where you can still make smores (in the microwave) and tell ghost stories. There's even a list of good camp movies (NOT including scary ones such as Friday the 13th) but kid friendly ones.

The book is colourful, with great illustrations and easy to read text. Recommended for ages 9-14.

Links of Interest: Elizabeth Encarnacion, Look Inside the Book on Facebook,

Other Reviews: NONE YET

Buy A Girls' Guide to Campfire Activities at amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews

Follow the Trail: A Young Person's Guide to the Great Outdoors by Jessica Loy

Stars: ****

Summary: A guide to outdoor fun for kids including camping, hiking, campfire and more.

First a list of topics covered: Camping (planning, packing, setting up, camp chores), safety, hiking, trees, wildflowers, animals, animal tracks, tracking, sounds, weather, rainy days, campfires, eating, games, night, stars and a Master Camper Certification Quiz.

The book is full of colour photographs of real kids, real leaves, real animals and real flowers. It's a nice touch. There is only a little bit of basic information on each subject but if the reader is really into the subject, they could find a book on the subject that goes into it furthur. This would be a good book for children just beginning.

At the back of the book is a quiz to take before you put your name on the Master Camper Certificate.

Links of Interest: Jessica Loy,

Other Reviews: NONE YET

Buy Follow the Trail at amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews

Silly Science

A new paper is out in a journal getting a reputation for silly science that predicts that climate change will lead to a massive influx of Mexicans across the border to the United States. Here is how the LA Times breathlessly opened its news story on the PNAS paper:

Climbing temperatures are expected to raise sea levels and increase droughts, floods, heat waves and wildfires.

Now, scientists are predicting another consequence of climate change: mass migration to the United States.

Between 1.4 million and 6.7 million Mexicans could migrate to the U.S. by 2080 as climate change reduces crop yields and agricultural production in Mexico, according to a study published online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The number could amount to 10% of the current population of Mexicans ages 15 to 65.

A reporter emailed me an embargoed copy last week asking for my reactions. Here is how I responded (and I pulled no punches):

To be blunt, the paper is guesswork piled on top of "what ifs" built on a foundation of tenuous assumptions. The authors seem to want to have things both ways -- they readily acknowledge the many and important limitations of their study, but then go on to assert that "it is nevertheless instructive to predict future migrant flows for Mexico using the estimates at hand to assess the possible magnitude of climate change–related emigration." It can't be both -- if the paper has many important limitations, then this means that that it is not particularly instructive. With respect to predicting immigration in 2080 (!), admitting limitations is no serious flaw.

To use this paper as a prediction of anything would be a mistake. It is a tentative sensitivity study of the effects of one variable on another, where the relationship between the two is itself questionable but more importantly, dependent upon many other far more important factors. The authors admit this when they write, "It is important to note that our projections should be interpreted in a ceteris paribus manner, as many other factors besides climate could potentially influence migration from Mexico to the United States." but then right after they assert, "Our projections are informative,nevertheless, in quantifying the potential magnitude of impacts of climate change on out-migration." It is almost as if the paper is written to be misinterpreted.

Climate change is real and worthy of our attention. Putting forward research claims that cannot be supported by the underlying analysis will not help the credibility of the climate science community. Even with the voluminous caveats in the paper, to conclude that "climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15–65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone" is just not credible. The paper reflects a common pattern in the climate impacts literature of trying to pin negative outcomes on climate change using overly simplistic methods and ignoring those factors other than climate which have far more effect.

One of the paper's authors, Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton professor and lead author of the forthcoming IPCC report on extremes explains his motivation with the paper:

Our primary objectives were, No. 1, to give policymakers something to think about and, No. 2, to give researchers a spur to start answering some of the more complicated questions

One of the climate impacts scholars whose work was relied on in the PNAS paper was critical:

Diana Liverman, a University of Arizona climate researcher, criticized the new study for basing its forecasts in part on research that she worked on in the early 1990s that looked at crop yields in only two central Mexico sites.

In reply, Oppenheimer said the Princeton study found similar results in a second crop-yield study, and the crop reductions predicted for Mexico are typical of what has been predicted for other countries in that latitude.

Liverman said that while she believes climate change could cause widespread migration, she has seen no study documenting it. Having studied the problems of Mexican farmers for two decades, she said she has found that a bad economy, the government's withdrawal of agricultural subsidies and the North American Free Trade Agreement have caused problems far greater than climate change.

Nature also has a set of critical reactions. The LA Times article recovered from its breathless opening with a well-buried lede:

Philip Martin, an expert in agricultural economics at UC Davis, said that he hadn't read the study but that making estimates based solely on climate change was virtually impossible.

"It is just awfully hard to separate climate change from the many, many other factors that affect people's decisions whether to stay in agriculture or move," he said.

In silly science however, nothing is impossible.

The Forest for the Trees

The blog post below by Sharon Friedman, a scientist who deals with land management issues every day, is reposted from A New Century of Forest Planning.

Creekside Ruminations on Climate Change from Bark Beetle Country

A couple of weeks ago, I was on a field trip on part of the old Routt National Forest, when I had to take a climate change conference call. Since cell phone coverage was spotty, we targeted a good spot and I was dropped off for a couple of hours and sat at creekside while on the calls.

Looking at the dead trees on the hills, it became clearer to me some of the disconnects between climate change as talked about or written about in scientific journals, and as currently lived.

1. People are already dealing with climate change every day as part of their work.
People are felling hazard trees, doing WUI fuels treatments, looking for biomass opportunities, etc. Climate change is just another change agent that affects our work.

2. We may never know how much of what we observe is due to climate change (take bark beetles; 100% climate change? 75% climate change plus the age of trees 25% ?). But we still have to deal with the changes, regardless of their source. So it probably doesn’t make sense to have a separate pot of funds for climate change adaptation or resilience- otherwise we might spend out time in tedious disagreements about whose problem is more climate-induced.

3. We will be dealing with these issues collaboratively, locally (for the most part) using an all lands approach, and involving regulators and communities early and often.

We can’t or shouldn’t get to the point where the community and the FS is in one place, but the regulators have a different worldview.

4. Climate change will include opportunities as well as hazards and difficulties.

For example, at the Steamboat Ski Area, we visited a site where dead trees provided an opportunity for a children’s outdoor ski opportunity..

5. It could be argued that the complex structure of direction in the Forest Service does not make us as flexible and adaptive as we need to be. Changes due to climate change and other factors can occur more quickly, and in different spatial/temporal configurations, than the current structure can respond to.

For example, the ranger district or forest is the right scale for many decisions. But not for bark beetles. Should it be dealt with by the current three forests? An interior west scale group? What would be the governance of such a group?
We have the incident command model for fires.. but if something is large, but not a month by month kind of emergency, do we have an organizational structure to deal with it?

6. Safety of our employees and the public need to come first.
I don’t know at the end of the day how many climate change issues will have real safety hazards such as bark beetle and other sources of dead trees. The urgency requires new ways of working together in a timely way. Environmental groups, industry groups, local communities, regulators- we all need to be able to speed up from our bureaucratic and legal natural rate of speed to an emergency rate of speed.

7. If ecosystems are too complex to predict (“more complex than we think, more complex than we can think”), let’s use scenarios and not specific predictions, and pick “no-regrets” strategies. I wonder sometimes if we are overthinking and overanalyzing climate changes and I think we should consider the opportunity costs of what we could to to “protect reconnect and restore” in the Trout Unlimited strategy versus “assess, predict and model.” Note that while common sense and decision theory under uncertainty have always argued for “no regrets” strategies, now at least some water scientists agree.

I would ask us to think about that climate change may be a stressor to our organizational and social systems as well as the environment. It requires us to work together faster, and better than we have in the past. I often wonder if climate science funding were divided half to social scientists, what would the “best available science” look like?

I’d be curious about others’ ruminations on these topics…

Unit Conversion - A Million Votes

Advocates for action on climate change are fond of arguing that costs of a few percent of GDP are really quite small in absolute terms (see image above from EDF). Here is one way to think about a 1% reduction in GDP in political terms.

Political scientist Ray Fair calculates that in historical presidential elections, every 1% decrease in GDP results in a 0.7% decrease in vote share for the incumbent party(See Table 2 in this PDF). In 2008, more than 130 million people voted in the US presidential election. In very round numbers, a 1% change in GDP has historically led to a swing of 1 million votes.

Are 1 million votes a small amount or a large amount? For selfish reasons alone, policymakers are going to be reluctant to impose any brakes on GDP, no matter how small those effects are argued to be. Climate policy will not succeed until the benefits are far more tangible and on the short term.

ETF Trend Models

Here is a snapshot of the ETF Trend Models that are followed in the Trend Following Trading Model subscription service.  These numbers are as of the close July 26th and are updated for subscribers each day after the market closes. 

The idea here is to let a simple, objective, mechanical algorithm draw a trend line and then to be LONG when prices are above the trend line and SHORT when prices are below the trend line.  Here is an example, using SSO from the above table:

SSO Daily Trend Model

These Trend Models have beaten the pants off of my own analysis this past month, which says something about both my analysis and the Trend Models. Forecasting is easy when we are in sync, but much more difficult when we disagree.  Looking back over the past seven months, the Trend Models win hands down.  It looks from here that identifying a trend is a whole lot easier the forecasting one, a concept that from the looks of these results, can be taken to the bank.

A

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Bloggin 'Bout Math-Let's Chat! :)

You.

Yes, YOU!

If you are reading this, I would LOVE to hear from you...

Please give me some feedback as I consider future articles...

1. What kind of information/articles have you most appreciated so far?

2. What's lacking?

3. What questions do you have?

I'd love to hear from YOU! :) Grab a cup of coffee, a piece of chocolate, and chat with me. :)

Video: Awake Endotracheal Intubation

Video: Awake Endotracheal Intubation for "Fun and Knowledge" by an anesthesiologist from the Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH). Not sure about the "fun" part...

References:
Awake Endotracheal Intubation for Fun and Knowledge. Medgadget, 2010.

The Great Camping Event - Day 2: Sleeping in a Sack by Linda White

It's Day 2 of The Great Camping Event. Be sure to check back all this week and next for reviews, giveaways, guest posts and camping info.

Stars: ****

Summary: A little book of camping activities and know-how for children. Covers basics of gear, choosing a tent, camp cooking, camp songs, stars and more.

Sleeping in a Sack is one of many similar books from Gibbs Smith. The others include: Cooking on a Stick, Trekking on a Trail, Fishing in a Brook, Wishing on a Star and more.

The contents are as follows: Living Outdoors, Types of Camping, Choosing Outdoor Gear, Planning Your Trip, Selecting a Campsite, Setting Up Camp, Camp Chow, Camp Skills and Pleasures, Green Camping and Packing List. The age group this book is made for is too young to camp themselves but a child interested in helping their parents plan and get ready for a camp would enjoy the information in the book. There are also activities to try both at camp and before camp. There are two symbols to show when an activity requires the use of a sharp instrument or is a burn hazard. Ricky the Raccoon also adorns the pages with helpful info and tidbits. The whole book is littered with cute little illustrations which really make the book pop.

My favourite activity is a Camper Clean-Up Kit. I didn't make it because at our Guide camp, the number of campers has been low so the girls leave their toiletries (bathroom items) in the bathroom. But the Camper Clean-Up Kit is great for those who still have to bring all their stuff with them. It's made out of a towel and has pockets for holding toothbrush, toothpaste, soap, brush etc.. and ties around the waist so it's hands free and one part of the towel is used as a towel. It's great!

I found the book to be a good introduction to camping for kids ages 8+.

Links of Interest: NONE

Other Reviews: NONE YET

Buy Sleeping in a Sack at amazon.com and support SMS Book Reviews

Emerging Opportunity

According to this wave count, the market is tracing out an ABC 4th wave, now into the 50% Fibonacci retracement window of the entire decline from late April and nearing the level of the previous 4th wave from mid-June. 

With the Advanced GET Elliott Oscillator back to the zero line and the False Bar Stochastic at a double top Sell signal pending, the market is setting up for another fall.   We have had several false alarms to the downside and maybe this is just another one of those.....but I doubt it.  That stochastic double top is a highly reliable trigger and should it issue a Sell signal (it hasn't done so yet) I intend to take it in conjunction with what should be some shorter-term trend model Sell signals. 

These are time tested indicators and price patterns.  They are not perfect, nor is anything else in market timing.  But I use them for a reason, i.e. they work more often then they don't.  

As an aside, I found this chart on another site and thought that since it dovetails nicely with the above analysis I would share it here:

A

Personal Insecurity and Climate Politics

Last week I suggested that Julia Gillard, Australia's Prime Minister, was asking for trouble by promising that carbon pricing would transform society:

When will politicians learn that climate policies are a political loser if they require that people "transform the way we live and the way we work"? The vast majority of people simply do not want their lives transformed. Promising that government will transform your life is one way to ensure a rough political road for any policy -- climate change, health care, economic, whatever.

Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations presents a similar argument with respect to "green jobs":

Basically, cap-and-trade introduces uncertainty at an individual level (though it does the opposite for actual investors); in the current economic climate, that scares people into thinking that they will lose their jobs. . . Anything that the public is unfamiliar with adds to uncertainty – and that is precisely what people don’t want. Second, green jobs may poll well across a wide spectrum of voters, but that doesn’t mean that selling regulation or taxation with a jobs message will work.

To succeed, policies focused on decarbonizing the global economy must not be seen as adding to personal insecurities, better yet, they should add to personal security. This should be a major lesson taken from the failure of US climate legislation.

NNVC - trend model update

The Daily Trend Model for NNVC triggered a Sell on June 30 at about $1.83.  Sitting today down about 25% from that Sell signal, NNVC is firming and may provide some reversals LONG from these levels.

NNVC_240

The NNVC_240 Trend Model remains in SELL mode, but will reverse LONG on any four-hour close above $1.41.  

NNVC_Daily

The NNVC_Daily Trend Model requires a daily close above $1.55 to reverse LONG.  The above 240_minute model gives an entry that is about 10% lower then the Daily Model, with a correspondingly higher risk of being whipsawed.  But we have seen this stock run up before and if there is enough price strength to move NNVC in to the $1.40's, it seems likely that the Daily threshold will also be hit.

Right now, with NNVC trading in the $1.30's, there isn't much to do.  Only in the event of a price rally will these models kick in on the LONG side. 

We'll Always Have the Climate Wars

For whatever reason, RealClimate has decided to open up debate over the so-called Hockey Stick, in their typical aggressive and angry manner (see, e..g, the exchanges between NASA's Gavin Schmidt and Georgia Tech's Judy Curry). As far as I am concerned the debate over the Hockey Stick is pretty much irrelevant to discussions of climate policy for the simple reason that the policies that I advocate are insensitive to that debate.

However, the debate over the Hockey Stock does serve as a useful measure of the state of the activist wing of the climate science community as well as their most bitter enemies, the so-called skeptics. For even the most dedicated observers the debates between the activist scientists and their opponents can be arcane, technical and simply impenetrable due to years upon years of perceived slights, a practice of in-group shorthand and a chorus of followers on either side cheering on the spectacle. So most people simply evaluate the arguments by who they decide to trust. Such decisions could be made due to political or other affinities. The issues raised by the released East Anglia emails and the IPCC troubles did much to swing the pendulum of trust away from the activist scientists among many observers. How to regain trust has thus been a focus on some responsible voices in the climate science community.

So it is somewhat surprising to see the renewed "academic penis wagging" of the activist scientists. This sort of behavior would seem to be a mistake, as going back to the old ways of winning through intimidation just doesn't seem plausible anymore. But like the skeptics, over-testosteroned academics are just something to be lived with, rather than defeated.

Over at Klimazwibel, climate scientist Eduardo Zorita helps to explain why the renewed offensive by the activist scientists is so badly misplaced. Zorita points to some additional major errors that have been found in the work of Michael Mann and colleagues, being published in the Journal of Climate (he also links to an online rebuttal which admits the errors, but in characteristic fashion explains that they do not matter). Zorita explains that in the debates over the Hockey Stick, sloppy errors provide a criterion with which to evaluate the trustworthiness of different research groups:

Now to the perhaps most substantial point: there is a debate around the RegEM method [as part of the Hockey Stick debate], as I tried to explain in the weblog. To my knowledge, three (truly) independent groups have found that this method also leads to too small past variations (Smerdon et al, Christiansen et al and Riedwyl et al). Another group says that the method slightly underestimates past variations (Lee et al) and another group says that this is a good method (Mann et al). The RegEM method is difficult to implement, there are several variants (ridged regression, total least squares, truncated total least squares, and for all them there exist hybrid versions in which the data sets are previously filtered in two different frequency bands). It also involves the somewhat subjective choice of a few internal parameters. In short, a quite complex method. If I am now told that, in the calculations by one of the groups, the input data have been mistakenly rotated around the Earth and that the interpolation on the global grid is not correct even before the implementation of the method has started.. well, what I am going to believe?

Given the amount of source material that has been provided to them, I have no doubts that the so-called skeptics are going to be perfectly happy discussing the Hockey Stick for the next 1,000 years. Simply by discussing it they raise issues about the credibility of the activist academic and government scientists that they oppose. For their part, the activist scientists are simply playing right along.

I do have a sense that climate debates have matured to the point where such political debates over science are far less meaningful to those involved in climate politics and policy than perhaps they once were. While that is a good thing for climate policy discussions, the broader climate science community still has a long ways to go in restoring trust. It cannot be demanded, but must be earned. Earning that trust will have to occur in the context of the never-ending climate wars, as they are not going away anytime soon -- much to the delight of the activists scientists and their skeptical dance partners.

Equilibrio, Architecto, Cliko (Blocks for Big Kids)

Over at Joyful Learner, today's "Math Monday" topic is block play. Here's a block product for older kids (5 to adult) that develops mathematical skills.

The Equilibrio, Architecto, and Cliko line by FoxMind rank in my top ten for math education products. I began using them a year ago with my 7yo. The products vary in complexity even within a given book and can be used with children through adults. Here's a brief overview:


Equilibrio could, I suppose, be considered the first in the "series" as the recommended age is 5 and up.

 The boxed set comes with a set of 18 specialty blocks that are used to erect structures illustrated in the spiral-bound challenge book. The structures begin deceptively simple ("Oh, this is soooooo easy!") and become increasingly difficult as you progress through 60 different structures. Levels of difficulty are indicated at the bottom of the page, as are guides that tell exactly which blocks are used in the structure. My son can easily build the early structures on his own, but he needs help as the book progresses. A lot of balance is necessary for some of the more difficult buildings. [If you buy the Architecto set below, you get the blocks and need an Equilibrio: book only.]


Architecto, recommended for ages 7 & up, is slightly different, although it uses the same blocks.

This book illustrates 3-D models. At the bottom of each page you see which blocks are used, but you have to look at the 3-D model, using "fairly sophisticated logical analysis and spatial perception" in order to build it. 50 illustrations/building puzzles are included.







Finally, Cliko, the granddaddy of challenges, is recommended for 8 years and up for people who "enjoy sophisticated puzzles." [Link is just to the book and assumes you already own the blocks through one of the above sets.]

In this book you again see a photo of a structure along with a list of blocks needed to complete it. This book, however, shows certain viewpoints of the structure...and the player needs to consider all viewpoints in order to determine whether a structure is feasible or not; sometimes the structure is shown at 3 different camera angles. Tough stuff. My 7yo can do beginning levels. I'm not sure if I can do the most advanced.



Disclaimer: I bought my own set--one set of blocks and all 3 books--and have no contact with the company that produces it. If you use the Amazon link to buy your own, Grace and Hope (foster care for kids in China) will make a few cents (at no cost to you.) My blog policy, however, is that I don't blog about things that I don't like. I love this.

Happy Building! ;)

Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (broken-heart syndrome) in differential diagnosis of chest pain

Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (also called stress induced cardiomyopathy, apical ballooning, or broken heart syndrome) was first described in Japan 20 years ago. It is typically precipitated by acute emotional stress, hence the names “stress cardiomyopathy” or “broken-heart syndrome.”

Takotsubo cardiomyopathy is characterised by acute, reversible left ventricular dysfunction in a distribution,which does not correlate with the coronary artery blood supply. The left ventricular dysfunction occurs without obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) and usually resolves spontaneously over a period of weeks.

The characteristic appearances on contrast angiography include:

- ballooned apical segment

- hypercontractile basal portion of the left ventricle

The appearances are reminiscent of the design of the traditional fishing pot used in Japan to trap octopus, hence the descriptive term "tako-tsubo" cardiomyopathy (octopus trap, tako tsubo). Such a trap, no more than simple ceramic jar, take advantage of the octopus’ preference for small, enclosed spaces and the security they seem to promise. They are simply left on the seabed and gathered later after octopi have had time to occupy them.

Although Takotsubo cardiomyopathy was initially considered rare, it could possibly be responsible for 1-2% of admissions for acute coronary syndrome in industrialised countries.

References:
Takotsubo cardiomyopathy. Banning et al. 340: c1272, BMJ.

Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy, or Broken-Heart Syndrome. SS Virani et al, Tex Heart Inst J. 2007; 34(1): 76–79.

Morikami museum.

Image source: Octopus trap, tako tsubo, Morikami museum.

Egypt's Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

From last week's Econ0mist comes these remarkable statistics:

BY ALMOST any statistical measure Egyptians are far better off than ever before, even though there are many more of them. The population has nearly doubled in size in just 30 years, from 44m in 1980 to 84m today. Farmers who until the 1970s spent half their working day on the back-breaking labour of lifting irrigation water now use diesel pumps, plough with tractors and thresh their wheat by machine. Life expectancy at birth has risen from 52 years in 1960 to 72 now. Back then Egyptians were lucky to own a transistor radio. Now two-thirds of homes have a satellite receiver, 87% own a fridge, 97% have piped water and 99% have electricity. Egyptians chatter on 57m mobile phones, and the number of passenger cars on the roads has more than doubled in the past decade.

And yet:

Nearly all Egyptian homes have piped water and electricity, but away from Cairo the power is often cut and taps often produce mere dribbles of water whose poor quality explains high levels of kidney disease. Nationwide, less than half the homes (and less than a third in the poor south) are connected to public sewage systems. In a survey of Egypt’s poorest villagers 91% said the service they needed most urgently was sewers. Visitors to Egypt invariably remark on the grubbiness of its streets. Statistics show that among the poorest fifth of Egyptians 85% of households have no proper means of rubbish disposal, so they burn it, dump it by the side of roads, tip it into canals or feed it to wandering goats and chickens. Some 16m Egyptians, according to the World Bank, inhabit informal and squatter settlements. That may equal the population of Cairo, though because of a muddle of overlapping administrative districts no one is really sure how many people the sprawling capital packs in.

Even Egyptian government economists admit that even as the rich get much richer and Egypt’s small middle class is expanding somewhat, the rest have struggled to keep up with an inflation rate that is far higher than in most comparable countries. The private planes, holiday homes, new highways, airports and supermarkets remain out of their reach. That may help to explain why recently Egypt has seen an uncharacteristic flaring up of strikes and protests of every kind. For the first few months of this year the streets around the parliament were occupied around the clock by angry factory workers, disgruntled tax inspectors or junior doctors, all protesting against their miserable pay.

Egypt is not often discussed in terms of carbon dioxide emissions (See figure below). After all, its annual emissions barely put it into the top 60 emitters, with its entire annual emissions about the same as China emits in a week. Even so, look at what is going on in Egypt as described in the paragraphs above.

Egypt provides a useful window into global trends -- the world needs more energy, vastly more energy, in coming decades. Where is that energy going to come from?