Since the mid-February LONG signal, the index is up about 10%. Prices have been contained in a well defined trend channel, all the time safely above the Daily Trend Line (navy). On the bottom oscillator, the recent new highs in price are not being confirmed by new highs in the oscillator. This suggests that the proposed wave count on the screen is correct and that after the completion of the Wave 5 of 5, a significant decline will be likely.
Below is the same QQQQ chart, less all of the bells and whistles save one, the Daily Trend Model:
This chart suggests only one thing: that the market is in an uptrend and traders/investors should be LONG. The late January EXIT was good for about a 10% decline before the index flipped back to the bullish camp. There is no suggestion here about any imminent declines, non-confirmations, wave counts or trend channels. Just that one thing: LONG.
There may be a market environment coming where such simple, observable, understandable analysis will fail. Alternatively, this kind of market analysis will continue to be an effective steering current for navigating market direction. All I can say is that this analysis continues to amaze me with its effectiveness across so many indexes, ETF's and stocks, as well as across multiple time frames.
I don't claim to have re-invented the wheel here, only to have found one and am now employing it in all of my market decisions.
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