Monday, March 22, 2010

On Compasses and Trend Models

Compass:  An instrument for determining direction

Trend Model: A compass for determining market direction

DJIA Monthly


DJIA Weekly


DJIA Daily


This is not a perfect methodology, but it is better then nothing, in fact, it is better then just about anything else.    I think I can make it better with daily/weekly observations, with periodic analysis and with the addition of confirming indicators like the Vortex at the bottom of these charts.  

The issue is whether you want to get onto a trend before it starts, just after it starts, or in the middle and/or end of it?  This technique is designed to identify trends just after they have begun and conversely, just after they end.  

Rather then argue the merits here, I will let these charts speak for themselves.  

Same rule applies to my trading;

No arguments with trends.

Instead, strict adherence.