Monday, March 29, 2010

GNVC

GNVC is getting pummeled after hours due to the failure of its pancreatic cancer therapy.  Some comments and suggestions:

First of all, GNVC is more then a one trick pony; they have other drugs in their pipeline, including big pharma partners.  Don't panic, in fact, this could be a buying opportunity.

Second, if GNVC is part of a Biotechnology Basket, it represents only 12.5% of the portfolio; this is one reason to play these speculative biotech's as part of a basket.

Third, if you are following the Trend Models, GNVC went into this announcement with both the Daily and Weekly trends SHORT:




The models had no clue that this trial would fail, but they did detect persistent enough selling in the stock to cause both models to be in SELL modes.  Not a coincidence.  Same holds true for stocks that are reflecting persistent strength, they are in BUY modes.  Respect the models.

What to do now?

Think about whether or not this is a buying opportunity and/or wait for the Daily Trend Model to turn up again.

Or move on. There are plenty of stocks in the Biotech Basket in strong uptrends already, if you are so inclined.