Tom over at Houston's Clear Thinkers has the definitive take on Bagwell's HOF chances (this is your 'inside baseball' data warning):
In short, Bags should be elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, and it is not even a close call. For his career, Bagwell has an incredible 680 RCAA in 2,135 games (meaning that he has created 680 more runs than an average National League hitter would have created in those games), a .297 batting average, a gaudy .408 on-base percentage (to put that in perspective, an average National League hitter had about a .340 OBP last season), a slugging percentage of .541, and a monstrous .949 career OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) compared to the league average OPS during Bagwell's career of .763 ...
... Just to underscore the foregoing, Mr. (Bill) James -- who knows more about baseball in his pinky than most of us can comprehend -- rates Bags as the fourth best first baseman of all-time in his New Bill James Historical Abstract, behind only Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Mark McGwire.
Get well and get back next year, Baggy.