Monday, March 21, 2011

Fukushima crisis is over

The electric utility company managed to connect all six reactors in Fukushima to the grid, so they may cool the reactors under business as usual. The crisis is clearly over. Bombing of the power plant by concrete, as proposed by Michio Kaku, wasn't really needed.

I don't claim that such a step would be unimaginable; under certain circumstances, it could even be the best solution. However, the idea that it was needed was an artifact of the hysteria in the media rather than a sane appraisal of the options. As I predicted, the power lines were connected within a day or two and they helped to eliminate the crisis almost immediately.

I say it despite the fact that the radiation in Tokyo has increased from 17 CPM to something slightly above 20 CPM as the winds became less favorable for Tokyo. Some food could have been contaminated - Japanese readers are strongly advised to buy imported food for some time - but the negative trend of the threat level is obvious.



The Japanese people have reacted calmly to the effects caused by the earthquake because they have been trained by intelligent games such as the game above.

The tsunami has made a far more devastating impact on the land of the rising Sun. Gene has estimated that in 2 years, the fatalities from the tsunami will be between 50,000 and 60,000 while the fatalities from radiation will be strictly zero. It's a bold claim that Gene has offered but so far, the first figure is unfortunately getting closer to his estimate while the second figure remains strictly zero, indeed.




I think it's remarkable that an unexpectedly huge earthquake and tsunami in a land filled with the nuclear reactors doesn't kill even 1/10,000 of the people who are killed directly, even though many things went wrong in Fukushima. If we should learn a lesson here, it's that nuclear energy is de facto safe even under extreme circumstances.