Saturday, May 22, 2010

Nasdaq 100 - Daily Trend Model

Below is the Nasdaq 100 Daily Trend Model with an Elliott Wave count that portends deeper, much deeper declines in the offing:


This trend model can be used to trade QQQQ options and if you are so inclined, gives a "worst-case"scenario for analyzing "best case" scenarios for gains in puts.  The wave count is suggesting another 7-17% decline in store for the index.  Extrapolating that to the QQQQ would suggest a drop to between 41-37 from its current level of 44.84.  Let's take a look at the QQQQ chart and see how close it comes:


Wave 5 Target = 35-40

In conclusion, while the Daily Trend Model is SHORT, it doesn't give guidance as to how far or for how long the market will decline.  EW is a imperfect science, but it does provide some structure for projections and in this case, is suggesting a decline taking the QQQQ to levels between 35-41.  With four weeks to go to June expiration, there are a lot of strikes in the QQQQ puts that will thrive under the auspices of these projections.

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Disclaimer:  Do you really know me?  Do you know what I may be on, or have been smoking, or drinking, or eating, or dropping?  Have you ever taken window pane acid?  Have you ever eaten really potent brownies?  Or, maybe he's just too old for that stuff.  See, now he's talking in the first person.  Or is it second?  That should cover it.