According to my private index which is a weighted combination of available indices, the support for Bush and Kerry seems to be, three days before the elections:
- 46% for Bush vs. 46% for Kerry overall; the race is dead even; Ralph Nader at 2% (less than in 2000)
The following categories are ordered from the most pro-Bush ones to the most pro-Kerry ones:
- 92% faithful Republicans for Bush
- 80% of born-again Christians for Bush
- 75% of those who changed their mind after the new bin Laden tape for Bush
- 72% conservatives for Bush
- 71% of the "Iraq war is the top issue" voters for Bush vs. 25% for Kerry
- 70% of investors for Bush
- 54% voters who regularly attend religious services for Bush
- 52% of married men for Bush
- 50% married women for Bush
- 49% men for Bush
- 44% self-identified independents for Bush vs. 41% for Kerry
- 49% newly registered voters for Kerry vs. 42% for Bush
- 53% single women for Kerry
- 57% of Northeast for Kerry
- 70% of Hispanics for Kerry
- 80% liberals for Kerry
- 84% of black voters for Kerry (was: 90% for Gore in 2000)
- 86% faithful Democrats for Kerry
- 90% of Ivy League faculty for Kerry
- 103% of anti-Bush bloggers for Kerry
The errors in these numbers are roughly 3%, which is the percentage of undecided voters. The error of the least reliable categories are biased and they can indeed reach 3%.
