Trend Following Trading Model

For the past several weeks I have been openly sharing a new trading system on this blog.  It is in its essence a trend following model, purely mechanical and objective in its design and execution.

Hourly Model real time performance

+41.88%

Since inception, November 10, 2009

I have this past week created a Daily Model of the same trading technique.  Hypothetical back-testing of the Daily Model shows a 12 month return of about +150% without pyramiding,  to +650% with pyramiding ("pyramiding," simply means placing all cumulative net proceeds in succeeding trades):

Daily Model

Finally, a variation on the same theme, using a Weekly Model to filter out Daily trades that are not in the direction of the current Weekly signal:

Daily Model w/Weekly Filter

These results are too good not to share.  Although a thorough reading of my blog will disclose the parameters being used, the system requires an investment in software, data feeds and possibly hardware in a complex array of daily monitoring and record keeping.  An easy alternative is for me to supply the trading signals to all interested traders for a modest monthly subscription fee.

Allan's Definition of Modest

$50 per month for subscriptions initiated during January, 2010. (This amount will never increase as long as the subscription is continuously maintained on a monthly basis);

$100 per month for all subscriptions initiated on or after February 1, 2010;

Additional increases possible after March 1, 2010, commensurate with real time performance and/or an increase in the scope of and/or nature of the service.

Logistics

I will send out an email with Hourly and Daily trading signal thresholds, or "pivots".  If the threshold is hit between emails, trades are assumed to be initiated.  Pretty simple stuff.  I intend to cover SPY, SDS and TZA in the initial symbol coverage, representing an unleveraged index, a double beta index and a triple beta index.  As performance dictates, I may add (or delete) other symbols to the coverage list, always trying to focus on the most robust and profitable trading opportunities.  Performance records will be based on the underlying tradable, although all covered symbols do trade active options that could serve to increase leverage and amplify performance, either up or down (use "Average Trade Percentage" in the performance tables for ideas).

How to subscribe

I've placed a Subscription button on the profile column on the right side of this blog.  Click it and follow the instructions.  All subscriptions are made through PayPal and can be terminated at will, either yours or mine.  Why would I terminate a subscription?  If anyone were to distribute the signals without my permission, they will be terminated. their subscription will be terminated.

The lawyer in me

I am so very sorry for this.  I wrote the above description of this subscription service in about 30 minutes on New Year's Day, then turned to the issue of regulatory compliance relevant to this kind of project.  Three hours later, the following represents what has to be disclaimed to subscribers, prospective subscribers, readers of this blog and just to be safe, anyone else.  What has brought our entrepreneurial society to this state of risk disclosure/disclaimer/avoidance?  Fodder for a new Blog, coming soon in 2010. 

 A

 FINANCIAL ADVICE

The Information, Tables, Charts and other Analysis (hereinafter collectively referred to as "Information") and other resources available on or through this AllAllan.blogspot.com (hereinafter, "Website" and/or "Allan P. Harris") and received from or through this Website such as e-mails and/or newsletters are provided for education and informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained in or provided from or through this Website is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The information on this Website and provided from or through this Website in the form of e-mails and/or newsletters is general in nature and is not specific to you the User or anyone else. YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED ON OR DELIVERED BY ANY OF THE PRODUCTS, SERVICES, INTERNET WEB SITES WITHOUT UNDERTAKING INDEPENDENT DUE DILIGENCE AND CONSULTATION WITH A PROFESSIONAL BROKER OR COMPETENT FINANCIAL ADVISER. You agree that any and all use of the information and Website which you make, is solely at your own risk and without any recourse whatsoever to Allan P. Harris or AllAllan.blogspot.com,  its associates, subsidiaries, partners or content providers. You understand that you are using any and all Information, Forms, Tables or Charts and other resources available on or through this Website and received from or through this Website such as e-mails and/or newsletters AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Allan P. Harris makes no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any purpose or use of the information presented on the Website or made available from any or all of the products, services, internet web sites owned and operated by Allan P. Harris. The information may not in all cases be current and it is subject to continuous change. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of the information as authoritative or substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making any investment or other decision. Website does not warrant that the supply of information will be uninterrupted, error free or not terminated altogether, and will not be liable for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information and its availability.

The information does not constitute or form part of an offer, subscription, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, commodities, financial objects, futures, options, stocks or other investment vehicles, in any amount or at all or to take up any services, nor should it be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. YOU ABSOLUTELY MUST MAKE YOUR OWN DECISION BEFORE ACTING ON ANY INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THIS WEBSITE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARY AN INDICATION OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Further, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-compensated or overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Allan P. Harris does not warrant that trading methods or systems presented in its services or the information available on or from its Website and received from or through this Website such as e-mails and/or newsletters will result in either profits or losses.

Analyst research available through this Website does not constitute a recommendation or a solicitation by Allan P. Harris nor is it a recommendation or solicitation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any particular securities, commodities, financial objects, futures, options, stocks or other investment vehicles, in any amount or at all. Allan P. Harris and his employees and/or representatives are not and do not represent themselves as being investment advisers or investment managers, and do not make representations relating to the use of the information on this Website. Allan P. Harris does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use or the results of the use of the information and materials on this Website in terms of their correctness, accuracy, reliability, profitability, or otherwise. The information and commentaries are not meant to be endorsements or offerings of any securities, commodities, financial objects, futures, options, stocks or other investment vehicles. As well, they are not meant to be guides to investment. Allan P. Harris, his employees and representatives are in no way liable for the use of the information by others in investing or trading in investment vehicles.

RISK STATEMENT: The trading of stocks, futures, commodities, index futures or any other securities has potential rewards, and it also has potential risks involved. Trading may not be suitable for all users of this Website. Anyone wishing to invest should seek his or her own independent financial or professional advice.

AUTO-TRADING AND SIGNALS

Signals and email-alert services of Allan P. Harris are not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice or trading service whatsoever.  YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE ANY DECISION, FINANCIAL, INVESTMENTS, TRADING OR OTHERWISE, BASED ON ANY OF THE INFORMATION PRESENTED ON OR DELIVERED BY ANY OF THE PRODUCTS or SERVICES OF ALLALLAN.BLOGSPOT.COM or ALLAN P. HARRIS. You agree to hold Allan P. Harris harmless for any losses whatsoever that you may incur.

Should you base any trading decision on our signals, email alerts or any other information derived from this service,  you acknowledge that you were informed of and you agree as follows:

All the information you receive from this Website is provided for education and informational purposes only, and you are solely responsible for interpreting the information provided herein;


You are solely responsible for making all your trading, your order timing and your execution decisions. You use information provided for such investment and trading decisions at your own risk;

Neither AllAllan.blog.com nor Allan P. Harris is or will be liable for any losses you may incur;


Neither AllAllan.blog.com nor Allan P. Harris is familiar with any individual subscriber's or trader's financial situation or investment portfolio or trading practices.