Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Bonds

Below is the Daily Trend Model for the 30-yr Treasury Yield.  Two two salient points are five waves down and a recent Trend Buy Signal:

30-yr Treasury Yield Daily Trend Model


Below is the TBT Daily Trend Model.  The key point here is how closely the TBT tracks treasury yield:

TBT Daily Trend Model

Reaching the previous 4th wave high would be a move of about 10%.  But the EW analysis on the yield chart is suggesting much higher interest rates and by implication, a more significant move up for TBT.


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