that also contains a list. Their estimated probability that various places of the world will be under water within 5 years or so - as well as the probability that the sea levels will be rising in a mad, Al-Gore-like way - is between 0.1% and 1% with the exception of Florida that is virtually doomed - see the picture below.
Polar bears will go extinct by 2010 with probability 1%, too.
The U.S. government will announce, by the end of 2007, that "global warming has been proven by a flawless paper", with probability of 80%. The bookmakers estimate the probability 30% of the U.S. government's declaration, by the end of 2007, that "a flawless paper has proven that the warming is man-made".
Well, the assertions from the previous paragraphs are pretty likely because governments like to do a lot of idiotic things, almost by definition. ;-)
Figure 1: Florida after a 20-foot sea level rise projected by Al Gore. According to BetUS.com, this will happen by 2011 with probability 10%. ;-)
James Annan and Gavin Schmidt agree with your humble correspondent that all the catastrophic and otherwise unusual statements - about Florida submerged by 2015 or corn grown everywhere in Antarctica in a few years :-) - are absurd and their real probability is orders of magnitude below the probability indicated by BetUS.com who want to earn money from naive people such as Alexander Ač.
When it comes to numbers and gambling, it turns out that Al Gore's statements are as sensible as the prediction about Elvis Presley found alive on the Moon, as James Annan says. Well, it's hard to make bets against James if he actually agrees, whenever he abandons his professional hypocrisy, that all the predictions that drive the global warming hysteria and the funding of tens of thousands of people like himself are absurd. ;-)
And that's the memo.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Global warming bets
BetUS.com, a gambling company, allows you to make a lot of bets about global warming. See
